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CF vs. MOS: Which Fertilizer Giant Is the Better Pick Now?
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Key Takeaways
CF gains from strong nitrogen demand and higher prices, lifting sales and outlook.
Mosaic benefits from phosphate and potash demand but faces higher input costs, pressuring margins.
CF shows higher ROE and rising EPS estimates, while MOS sees declining EPS projections for 2026.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) and The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) are two of the biggest players in the fertilizer space. The underlying strength of the agricultural market and attractive farm economics are spurring demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs.
Supportive farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are driving potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also benefiting from low producer and channel inventories. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer also remains strong in major markets such as North America, India and Brazil. Strong demand and supply tightness have also led to an uptick in fertilizer prices.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two major fertilizer producers to determine which one is a better investment option in the current environment.
The Case for CF Industries
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. After pandemic-related challenges, industrial demand for nitrogen has recovered.
Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics. High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. CF Industries is also seeing strong demand for urea from Brazil and India. The two countries are expected to remain the largest importers of urea globally, driven by higher domestic requirements.
CF, on its fourth-quarter call, said that the global nitrogen outlook remains positive for the near term, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India and Brazil will drive robust consumption, while inventories will stay below historical averages.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the fourth quarter, net sales rose roughly 23% year over year to roughly $1.87 billion. The average selling prices for most of the company’s core products increased compared to the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow. Its net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the fourth quarter, up nearly 28.3% year over year. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were nearly $2 billion at the end of the quarter. The company completed an offering of $1 billion senior notes during the fourth quarter to boost its financial flexibility and to refinance $750 million in debt due in December 2026.
CF Industries repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in the fourth quarter, and bought back 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. It returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. The company completed the $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025. It started a new $2 billion share repurchase program effective through 2029, with $1.7 billion remaining at the end of 2025.
The Case for Mosaic
Mosaic is gaining from the strong demand for fertilizers, aided by favorable agricultural conditions. Demand for grains and oilseeds remains high globally. Demand for phosphate and potash in North America is expected to be strong over the near term, aided by healthy farmer economics and improved affordability. Demand in Brazil is also expected to be driven by healthy grower economics, higher planted acres, increasing crop yields and growers’ need to replenish soil nutrients. Low inventory levels and pent-up purchases, backed by government support, are also expected to drive demand in India.
Demand and supply fundamentals remain favorable for phosphate amid China’s move to restrict exports to prioritize domestic consumption. The potash market remains balanced, and Mosaic expects shipments in 2026 to reach record levels amid healthy demand from major markets.
MOS’ actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are expected to boost profitability. Mosaic remains on track with its cost-reduction plan, which is expected to drive $250 million in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, having already achieved $150 million in cost reduction targets in 2025, mostly in Fertilizantes. The additional cost reductions are expected to be realized through optimization of the supply chain, automation of administrative functions, absorption of fixed costs and operational cost cuts.
MOS also remains committed to carrying out investments with high returns and moderate capital expenditures. It has completed the 800,000-ton MicroEssentials capacity conversion. The Esterhazy Hydrofloat project, which added 400,000 tons in milling capacity, is complete and produced the first potash tons in July 2025, with ramp-up continuing. Hydrofloat will enable Mosaic to produce low-cost potash tons. The company sees record production in Esterhazy this year.
The construction of a new blending and distribution center in Palmeirante, Brazil, was also completed in July 2025, supporting the company’s long-term growth objectives in the country’s agriculture markets. The facility is expected to enable Mosaic Fertilizantes to increase overall sales by 1 million tons.
Mosaic uses sulfur and ammonia as key inputs for the production of phosphate. Supply disruptions contributed to the rise in prices of both sulfur and ammonia last year. Plant shutdowns and maintenance led to a tight supply of these raw materials, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. Higher raw material costs led to an increase in the company’s production costs.
The impacts of raw material inflation are likely to be reflected in the company’s margins in 2026. MOS has witnessed a sharp increase in sulfur price since late 2025, which is expected to weigh on phosphate margins in the first quarter of 2026.
CF & MOS: Price Performance, Valuation & Other Comparisons
The CF stock is up 66.5% in the past year, while MOS has declined 9.3% compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 26.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.31. This represents a roughly 7.5% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 14.39X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MOS is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.92, below CF and the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF’s return on equity of 19.8% is higher than MOS’ 5.8%. This reflects CF’s efficient use of shareholder funds in generating profits.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for CF & MOS
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF Industries’ 2026 sales implies a year-over-year decline of 3.1%. The same for EPS suggests a 6.2% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for MOS’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 3.9% and a decline of 27.3%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending southward over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF or MOS: Which Stock Holds the Edge?
Both CF Industries and Mosaic are benefiting from strong global fertilizer demand, thanks to the favorable agricultural conditions and supportive farm economics. Improving fertilizer prices are also expected to aid their performance. CF’s higher ROE indicates that it is more effectively utilizing shareholder funds. In addition, CF’s rising earnings estimates and positive earnings growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment.
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CF vs. MOS: Which Fertilizer Giant Is the Better Pick Now?
Key Takeaways
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) and The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) are two of the biggest players in the fertilizer space. The underlying strength of the agricultural market and attractive farm economics are spurring demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs.
Supportive farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are driving potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also benefiting from low producer and channel inventories. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer also remains strong in major markets such as North America, India and Brazil. Strong demand and supply tightness have also led to an uptick in fertilizer prices.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two major fertilizer producers to determine which one is a better investment option in the current environment.
The Case for CF Industries
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by strong agricultural activity. After pandemic-related challenges, industrial demand for nitrogen has recovered.
Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics. High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. CF Industries is also seeing strong demand for urea from Brazil and India. The two countries are expected to remain the largest importers of urea globally, driven by higher domestic requirements.
CF, on its fourth-quarter call, said that the global nitrogen outlook remains positive for the near term, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India and Brazil will drive robust consumption, while inventories will stay below historical averages.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the fourth quarter, net sales rose roughly 23% year over year to roughly $1.87 billion. The average selling prices for most of the company’s core products increased compared to the prior year, driven by supply disruptions and strong global nitrogen demand. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow. Its net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the fourth quarter, up nearly 28.3% year over year. The company’s cash and cash equivalents were nearly $2 billion at the end of the quarter. The company completed an offering of $1 billion senior notes during the fourth quarter to boost its financial flexibility and to refinance $750 million in debt due in December 2026.
CF Industries repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in the fourth quarter, and bought back 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025. It returned $1.7 billion to its shareholders in 2025. The company completed the $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025. It started a new $2 billion share repurchase program effective through 2029, with $1.7 billion remaining at the end of 2025.
The Case for Mosaic
Mosaic is gaining from the strong demand for fertilizers, aided by favorable agricultural conditions. Demand for grains and oilseeds remains high globally. Demand for phosphate and potash in North America is expected to be strong over the near term, aided by healthy farmer economics and improved affordability. Demand in Brazil is also expected to be driven by healthy grower economics, higher planted acres, increasing crop yields and growers’ need to replenish soil nutrients. Low inventory levels and pent-up purchases, backed by government support, are also expected to drive demand in India.
Demand and supply fundamentals remain favorable for phosphate amid China’s move to restrict exports to prioritize domestic consumption. The potash market remains balanced, and Mosaic expects shipments in 2026 to reach record levels amid healthy demand from major markets.
MOS’ actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are expected to boost profitability. Mosaic remains on track with its cost-reduction plan, which is expected to drive $250 million in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, having already achieved $150 million in cost reduction targets in 2025, mostly in Fertilizantes. The additional cost reductions are expected to be realized through optimization of the supply chain, automation of administrative functions, absorption of fixed costs and operational cost cuts.
MOS also remains committed to carrying out investments with high returns and moderate capital expenditures. It has completed the 800,000-ton MicroEssentials capacity conversion. The Esterhazy Hydrofloat project, which added 400,000 tons in milling capacity, is complete and produced the first potash tons in July 2025, with ramp-up continuing. Hydrofloat will enable Mosaic to produce low-cost potash tons. The company sees record production in Esterhazy this year.
The construction of a new blending and distribution center in Palmeirante, Brazil, was also completed in July 2025, supporting the company’s long-term growth objectives in the country’s agriculture markets. The facility is expected to enable Mosaic Fertilizantes to increase overall sales by 1 million tons.
Mosaic uses sulfur and ammonia as key inputs for the production of phosphate. Supply disruptions contributed to the rise in prices of both sulfur and ammonia last year. Plant shutdowns and maintenance led to a tight supply of these raw materials, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. Higher raw material costs led to an increase in the company’s production costs.
The impacts of raw material inflation are likely to be reflected in the company’s margins in 2026. MOS has witnessed a sharp increase in sulfur price since late 2025, which is expected to weigh on phosphate margins in the first quarter of 2026.
CF & MOS: Price Performance, Valuation & Other Comparisons
The CF stock is up 66.5% in the past year, while MOS has declined 9.3% compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 26.4%.
CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.31. This represents a roughly 7.5% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 14.39X.
MOS is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.92, below CF and the industry.
CF’s return on equity of 19.8% is higher than MOS’ 5.8%. This reflects CF’s efficient use of shareholder funds in generating profits.
How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for CF & MOS
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF Industries’ 2026 sales implies a year-over-year decline of 3.1%. The same for EPS suggests a 6.2% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
The consensus estimate for MOS’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 3.9% and a decline of 27.3%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 have been trending southward over the past 60 days.
CF or MOS: Which Stock Holds the Edge?
Both CF Industries and Mosaic are benefiting from strong global fertilizer demand, thanks to the favorable agricultural conditions and supportive farm economics. Improving fertilizer prices are also expected to aid their performance. CF’s higher ROE indicates that it is more effectively utilizing shareholder funds. In addition, CF’s rising earnings estimates and positive earnings growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment.
CF currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), while MOS has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.