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U.S. Stock Futures Jump on Middle East Developments

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By all accounts, it’s been a very good week for the stock market. Pre-market futures are climbing higher from here, as well, as reports coming from the Middle East say the Strait of Hormuz is currently open now that a cease-fire has been reached between Israel and Lebanon. Oil prices fave fallen -8% on the news, and pre-market futures are way up: +540 points on the Dow, +54 on the S&P 500, +230 points on the Nasdaq and +36 on the small-cap Russell 2000.

Market participants this week have been taking whatever good news they can glean and run with it. We’re up +3% to +6% in the past five trading days, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opening at fresh all-time highs this morning. 

Devils advocates may point to Iran having placed the ball in Israel’s court this morning: should the country continue bombing Lebanon and Iran itself once the cease-fire expires, chances are Iran would once again close the Strait. Not being a geopolitical expert, I won’t deign to opine here; what seems important to keep in mind, however, is that we do not have a true peace agreement in the Middle East yet — ultimately things will remain precarious until one has been reached.

Q1 Earnings Ahead of the Bell: FITB, STT & More

Early this week, we heard from the biggest of the big banks reporting Q1 earnings results. We close the week with other financial companies putting out quarterly figures. 

Fifth Third Bank (FITB - Free Report) missed estimates by a penny to $0.83 per share this morning (although up a solid dime year over year) on $2.38 billion in revenues. This came in -0.86% below the Zacks consensus, though up from the $2.13 billion reported a year ago. The company is working through growing pains from its acquisition on Comerica earlier in the quarter. 

State Street Corp. (STT - Free Report) , on the other hand, easily surpassed expectations on both top and bottom lines in its Q1 results this morning. Earnings of $2.84 per share was +9.2% ahead of the Zacks consensus for $2.60. Revenues of $3.8 billion beat estimates by +3.24%, and shares are up +1% on the news, adding to the investment firm’s +10% year to date. 

Ally Financial (ALLY - Free Report) results were mixed for its Q1 report this morning: earnings of $1.11 per share was nicely ahead of the $0.93 analysts were looking for, while $2.1 billion, while up from the $1.54 billion reported in the prior-year Q1, missed the Zacks consensus by -3.5%. Shares are up +3.8% in today’s pre-market so far, however, cutting in half its -7.4% trading year to date.

What to Expect from the Market Going Forward

Clearly, the global economy revolves around events in the Middle East, and that will likely be a more powerful narrative than about anything else we can think of. Certainly next week’s economic reports on Retail Sales, Leading Economic Indicators, Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment, while important, will not have the capacity to move the needle as notably.

We also see major Q1 reports next week from the likes of Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) , Boeing (BA - Free Report) , GE Aerospace (GE - Free Report) , Coca-Cola (KO - Free Report) and Procter & Gamble (PG - Free Report) . We enter the heart of Q1 earnings season over the next couple weeks, and from what we’ve seen from the big banks and other select companies having reported, so far so good.

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