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AAL forecasts wider Q1 loss as non-fuel unit costs rise and fuel nears $2.75 per gallon.
Rising labor & fuel costs may pressure margins; AAL's -0.88% ESP and Zacks Rank #3 hint at a possible miss.
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 23, before market open.
American Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), delivering an average beat of 3.47%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things have shaped up for American Airlines this earnings season.
Factors Likely to Have Influenced AAL’s Q1 Performance
Stronger-than-expected demand, backed by effective execution of commercial initiatives and a solid demand backdrop,has encouraged American Airlines to improve its revenue guidance for the first quarter of 2026. Management now anticipates total revenues for the first quarter to increase more than 10% year over year, up from prior guidance of approximately 7% to 10%. This is the highest ever year-over-year quarterly revenue growth for AAL. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $13.81 billion, indicating 10.05% growth year over year.
Meanwhile, available seat miles (a measure of capacity) are now expected to increase in the 3-4% band on a year-over-year basis (the earlier guidance was a 3-5% increase).
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter 2026 loss is currently pegged at 45 cents per share, wider than the loss of 28 cents in the past 60 days. The consensus mark implies a 23.73% upward movement from the year-ago actual. AAL now expects its first-quarter adjusted loss per share to be at the lower end of its previous guided range of loss per share of 50 cents to $1.50.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
We expect high fuel costs to have dented AAL’s bottom-line performance in the March quarter. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has resulted in a sharp jump in oil prices. In the month of March alone, oil prices gained in excess of 50%. This has been naturally hurting the bottom line of airlines. This is because fuel expenses represent a key input cost for airlines. With most U.S. carriers having abandoned fuel hedging strategies, such an oil supply disruption has left them fully exposed to price spikes. AAL expects jet fuel costs of almost $2.75 per gallon for the first quarter.
Escalated labor and airport costs have been high, which are likely to have hurt the company’s bottom-line performance in the March quarter. For first-quarter 2026, AAL expects non-fuel unit costs to increase in the 4-5% band on a year-over-year basis (the earlier guidance had called for a 3-5% increase).
What Our Model Says About AAL
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -0.88% and a Zacks Rank #3.
American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American Airlines’ fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 1 cent from non-recurring items) of 16 cents per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents. In the year-ago quarter, AAL reported earnings per share of 86 cents.
Operating revenues of $14 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.1 billion and increased 2.5% from the year-ago number. The prolonged government shutdown hurt fourth-quarter revenues by approximately $325 million. Passenger revenues, accounting for 90.4% of the top line, increased 2.1% year over year to $12.7 billion. Cargo revenues increased 2.8% to $226 million. Other revenues increased 7.4% to $1.1 billion.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Ryder is set to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 23. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ryder’s first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised 17.33% downward over the past 60 days. Ryder’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed the mark in the remaining one, the average beat being 1.91%.
Union Pacific (UNP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.24% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UNP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 23.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. UNP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters (missing the mark on the other two occasions). The average beat is 1.34%.
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American Airlines Stock to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Key Takeaways
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 23, before market open.
American Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), delivering an average beat of 3.47%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for American Airlines this earnings season.
Factors Likely to Have Influenced AAL’s Q1 Performance
Stronger-than-expected demand, backed by effective execution of commercial initiatives and a solid demand backdrop,has encouraged American Airlines to improve its revenue guidance for the first quarter of 2026. Management now anticipates total revenues for the first quarter to increase more than 10% year over year, up from prior guidance of approximately 7% to 10%. This is the highest ever year-over-year quarterly revenue growth for AAL. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $13.81 billion, indicating 10.05% growth year over year.
Meanwhile, available seat miles (a measure of capacity) are now expected to increase in the 3-4% band on a year-over-year basis (the earlier guidance was a 3-5% increase).
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter 2026 loss is currently pegged at 45 cents per share, wider than the loss of 28 cents in the past 60 days. The consensus mark implies a 23.73% upward movement from the year-ago actual. AAL now expects its first-quarter adjusted loss per share to be at the lower end of its previous guided range of loss per share of 50 cents to $1.50.
We expect high fuel costs to have dented AAL’s bottom-line performance in the March quarter. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has resulted in a sharp jump in oil prices. In the month of March alone, oil prices gained in excess of 50%. This has been naturally hurting the bottom line of airlines. This is because fuel expenses represent a key input cost for airlines. With most U.S. carriers having abandoned fuel hedging strategies, such an oil supply disruption has left them fully exposed to price spikes. AAL expects jet fuel costs of almost $2.75 per gallon for the first quarter.
Escalated labor and airport costs have been high, which are likely to have hurt the company’s bottom-line performance in the March quarter. For first-quarter 2026, AAL expects non-fuel unit costs to increase in the 4-5% band on a year-over-year basis (the earlier guidance had called for a 3-5% increase).
What Our Model Says About AAL
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -0.88% and a Zacks Rank #3.
American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American Airlines Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Airlines Group Inc. Quote
Highlights of AAL’s Q4 Earnings
American Airlines’ fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 1 cent from non-recurring items) of 16 cents per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents. In the year-ago quarter, AAL reported earnings per share of 86 cents.
Operating revenues of $14 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.1 billion and increased 2.5% from the year-ago number. The prolonged government shutdown hurt fourth-quarter revenues by approximately $325 million. Passenger revenues, accounting for 90.4% of the top line, increased 2.1% year over year to $12.7 billion. Cargo revenues increased 2.8% to $226 million. Other revenues increased 7.4% to $1.1 billion.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Ryder System, Inc. (R - Free Report) ) has an Earnings ESP of +0.66% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Ryder is set to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 23. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ryder’s first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised 17.33% downward over the past 60 days. Ryder’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed the mark in the remaining one, the average beat being 1.91%.
Union Pacific (UNP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.24% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UNP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 23.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. UNP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters (missing the mark on the other two occasions). The average beat is 1.34%.