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Tesla to Report Q1 Earnings: Will Rising Y/Y Delivery Restore Growth?
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Key Takeaways
Tesla will report Q1 results on April 22 as deliveries rose 6.3% YoY to 358,023, beating forecasts.
TSLA saw Germany registrations jump 315% in March, driving a sharp European market rebound.
Tesla expects auto revenues to rise 10.1% YoY and margins at 16%, supported by higher deliveries.
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, after the closing bell. The delivery rebound in Germany is likely to have supported Tesla’s growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
TSLA beat earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average negative surprise being 7.66%.
Tesla’s fourth-quarter production totaled 434,358 units (422,652 Model 3/Y and 11,706 other models), which declined 5% year over year and missed our estimate of 462,212 units. The company delivered 418,227 vehicles, which declined 16% year over year and fell short of our estimate of 448,384 units. The Model 3/Y registered deliveries of 406,585 vehicles, which declined 14% year over year and missed our expectation of 430,871 units.
Total automotive revenues of $17.7 billion declined 11% year over year and missed our estimate of $19.3 billion. Automotive sales, excluding revenues from leasing and regulatory credits, totaled $16.8 billion, which declined 10.2% and missed our projection of $18.5 billion on lower-than-expected deliveries.
Energy Generation and Storage revenues amounted to $3.84 billion, which rose 25% year over year and beat our estimate of $3.4 billion. Notably, energy storage deployments totaled 14.2 GWh. Services and Other revenues amounted to $3.4 billion, up 18% year over year. The figure matched our estimate.
Rising Deliveries to Support TSLA’s Growth
In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles (including 341,893 Model 3/Y and 16,130 other models), which surpassed our forecast of 343,949 units and rose 6.3% year over year. An impressive rebound in Germany’s auto market in March 2026 drove the growth. New registrations in Germany rose more than fourfold year over year in March, per the data from the German Federal Motor Transport Authority.
Registrations of Tesla vehicles surged 315.1% year over year to 9,252 units, marking its strongest March ever in the country and signaling a sharp recovery after earlier struggles in the European market. The March spike made up about 72% of Tesla’s total for the first quarter in Germany. First-quarter registrations reached 12,829 vehicles, up 160% year over year compared to the same period last year.
We expect revenues from automotive sales to rise 10.1% year over year in the first quarter of 2026. Gross margins from automotive sales are expected at 16% compared with 15% in the year-ago period. Rising deliveries and expected improvement in gross margin are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Overall Earnings & Revenue Projections for Tesla
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s sales and earnings is pegged at $21.92 billion and 36 cents per share. The consensus mark for earnings per share has moved down a penny over the past seven days.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla, as it does not have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The company has an Earnings ESP of -19.36% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few players from the auto space that, per our model, have the correct ingredients to post an earnings beat this time.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dana’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 39 cents per share and $1.77 billion.
Lear Corporation (LEA - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 1. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.10% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lear’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.30 per share and $5.87 billion, respectively. LEA surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 14.26%.
Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 5. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.51% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lucid’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss and revenues is pegged at $2.72 per share and $428.7 million. LCID missed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average negative surprise being 29.92%.
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Tesla to Report Q1 Earnings: Will Rising Y/Y Delivery Restore Growth?
Key Takeaways
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, after the closing bell. The delivery rebound in Germany is likely to have supported Tesla’s growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
TSLA beat earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average negative surprise being 7.66%.
Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Tesla, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Tesla, Inc. Quote
Q4 Highlights
Tesla’s fourth-quarter production totaled 434,358 units (422,652 Model 3/Y and 11,706 other models), which declined 5% year over year and missed our estimate of 462,212 units. The company delivered 418,227 vehicles, which declined 16% year over year and fell short of our estimate of 448,384 units. The Model 3/Y registered deliveries of 406,585 vehicles, which declined 14% year over year and missed our expectation of 430,871 units.
Total automotive revenues of $17.7 billion declined 11% year over year and missed our estimate of $19.3 billion. Automotive sales, excluding revenues from leasing and regulatory credits, totaled $16.8 billion, which declined 10.2% and missed our projection of $18.5 billion on lower-than-expected deliveries.
Energy Generation and Storage revenues amounted to $3.84 billion, which rose 25% year over year and beat our estimate of $3.4 billion. Notably, energy storage deployments totaled 14.2 GWh. Services and Other revenues amounted to $3.4 billion, up 18% year over year. The figure matched our estimate.
Rising Deliveries to Support TSLA’s Growth
In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles (including 341,893 Model 3/Y and 16,130 other models), which surpassed our forecast of 343,949 units and rose 6.3% year over year. An impressive rebound in Germany’s auto market in March 2026 drove the growth. New registrations in Germany rose more than fourfold year over year in March, per the data from the German Federal Motor Transport Authority.
Registrations of Tesla vehicles surged 315.1% year over year to 9,252 units, marking its strongest March ever in the country and signaling a sharp recovery after earlier struggles in the European market. The March spike made up about 72% of Tesla’s total for the first quarter in Germany. First-quarter registrations reached 12,829 vehicles, up 160% year over year compared to the same period last year.
We expect revenues from automotive sales to rise 10.1% year over year in the first quarter of 2026. Gross margins from automotive sales are expected at 16% compared with 15% in the year-ago period. Rising deliveries and expected improvement in gross margin are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Overall Earnings & Revenue Projections for Tesla
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s sales and earnings is pegged at $21.92 billion and 36 cents per share. The consensus mark for earnings per share has moved down a penny over the past seven days.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla, as it does not have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The company has an Earnings ESP of -19.36% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few players from the auto space that, per our model, have the correct ingredients to post an earnings beat this time.
Dana Incorporated (DAN - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 29. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.25% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dana’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 39 cents per share and $1.77 billion.
Lear Corporation (LEA - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 1. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.10% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lear’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.30 per share and $5.87 billion, respectively. LEA surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 14.26%.
Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 5. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.51% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lucid’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss and revenues is pegged at $2.72 per share and $428.7 million. LCID missed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average negative surprise being 29.92%.