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Watch These 4 Transportation Stocks for Q1 Earnings: Beat or Miss?
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Key Takeaways
CSX and UNP are expected to post an earnings beat in first-quarter 2026.
AAL expects Q1 revenue growth above 10%, with wider Q1 loss as fuel nears $2.75 per gallon.
Wabtec sees strong demand driving revenue, though rising expenses may pressure margins.
The widely diversified Zacks Transportation sector continues to navigate through a challenging macroeconomic environment. The sector grapples with multiple headwinds, ranging from escalated expenses, inflation-induced elevated interest rates, a downturn in freight demand and supply-chain woes. Geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-induced economic tensions continue to hurt consumer sentiment and growth expectations.
With inflation remaining a concern, risks associated with an economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions dampen the prospects of stocks belonging to this sector. Sluggish economic growth and inflationary woes are likely to make markets more volatile in the coming days. Due to supply-chain troubles, costs will likely continue to be steep going forward.
Further, high fuel costs are expected to have dented the bottom-line performance of sector participants in the March quarter. This is because fuel expenses are a significant input cost for the transportation companies. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has resulted in a sharp jump in oil prices. In the month of March alone, oil prices gained in excess of 50%. Oil prices rose 75% in the January-March 2026 period.
Given this backdrop, investors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector are keenly waiting for the results of CSX Corporation (CSX - Free Report) , Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB - Free Report) , operating as Wabtec Corporation, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) and American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) – all of which are slated to be released this week.
Our quantitative model predicts an earnings beat for a company if it has a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This combination increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Let’s delve deeper.
CSX
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised southward by 2.5% over the past 60 days to 39 cents per share. However, the consensus mark implies a 14.71% upside from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.51 billion, indicating a 2.55% increase from the first quarter of 2025 actuals.
CSX’s performance in the first quarter is expected to have been materially pressured by low shipping demand and high costs, resulting in lower revenues, reduced fuel surcharges and softer merchandise volumes.
Ongoing economic and rail network challenges are expected to have weighed on CSX’s performance in the first quarter, as locomotive and crew shortages, along with other service disruptions, are anticipated to have eroded operational efficiency and shipment volumes. Persistent supply-chain constraints are likely to have strained service levels, while elevated capital spending is expected to have pressured the company’s bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WAB’s first-quarter 2026 revenues is currently pegged at $2.94 billion, which indicates a 12.5% uptick from the year-ago actual. WAB’s top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter is expected to have been boosted by an uptick in demand for services and components, along with robust sales across the aftermarket and original equipment manufacturing channels.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WAB’s first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 2.67% over the past 60 days to $2.55 per share. The consensus mark for earnings implies an 11.8% upside from the year-ago actual. We expect Wabtec’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been significantly impacted by rising operating expenses. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply-chain disruptions are likely to have weighed on the company’s bottom line.
WAB is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, before market open. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Wabtec this time around, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Earnings ESP was 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 when we issued our first-quarter 2026 earnings preview.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 0.4% over the past 60 days to $2.85 per share. The consensus mark for earnings implies a 5.56% rise from the year-ago actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $6.21 billion, indicating 3.01% growth year over year.
We expect the company’s top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in demand for services. On the contrary, rising operating expenses and geopolitical unrest are expected to have significantly impacted the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. The bottom line is likely to have been weighed down by high fuel costs due to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and supply-chain disruptions.
UNP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 23, before market open. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Union Pacific this time, as it has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $13.81 billion, indicating 10.05% growth year over year. Management now anticipates total revenues for the first quarter to increase more than 10% year over year, up from prior guidance of approximately 7% to 10%. This is the highest ever year-over-year quarterly revenue growth for AAL. Stronger-than-expected demand, backed by effective execution of commercial initiatives and a solid demand backdrop, has encouraged American Airlines to improve its revenue guidance for the first quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter 2026 loss is currently pegged at 45 cents per share, wider than the loss of 28 cents in the past 60 days. The consensus mark implies a 23.73% upward movement from the year-ago actual. AAL now expects its first-quarter adjusted loss per share to be at the lower end of its previous guided range of loss per share of 50 cents to $1.50.We expect high fuel costs to have dented AAL’s bottom-line performance in the March quarter.
AAL is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 23, before market open. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around, as AAL has an Earnings ESP of -1.90% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Earnings ESP was -0.88% when we issued our first-quarter 2026 earnings preview, and the Zacks Rank was the same.
American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Watch These 4 Transportation Stocks for Q1 Earnings: Beat or Miss?
Key Takeaways
The widely diversified Zacks Transportation sector continues to navigate through a challenging macroeconomic environment. The sector grapples with multiple headwinds, ranging from escalated expenses, inflation-induced elevated interest rates, a downturn in freight demand and supply-chain woes. Geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-induced economic tensions continue to hurt consumer sentiment and growth expectations.
With inflation remaining a concern, risks associated with an economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions dampen the prospects of stocks belonging to this sector. Sluggish economic growth and inflationary woes are likely to make markets more volatile in the coming days. Due to supply-chain troubles, costs will likely continue to be steep going forward.
Further, high fuel costs are expected to have dented the bottom-line performance of sector participants in the March quarter. This is because fuel expenses are a significant input cost for the transportation companies. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has resulted in a sharp jump in oil prices. In the month of March alone, oil prices gained in excess of 50%. Oil prices rose 75% in the January-March 2026 period.
Given this backdrop, investors interested in the Zacks Transportation sector are keenly waiting for the results of CSX Corporation (CSX - Free Report) , Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB - Free Report) , operating as Wabtec Corporation, Union Pacific Corporation (UNP - Free Report) and American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) – all of which are slated to be released this week.
Our quantitative model predicts an earnings beat for a company if it has a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This combination increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Let’s delve deeper.
CSX
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised southward by 2.5% over the past 60 days to 39 cents per share. However, the consensus mark implies a 14.71% upside from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.51 billion, indicating a 2.55% increase from the first quarter of 2025 actuals.
CSX’s performance in the first quarter is expected to have been materially pressured by low shipping demand and high costs, resulting in lower revenues, reduced fuel surcharges and softer merchandise volumes.
Ongoing economic and rail network challenges are expected to have weighed on CSX’s performance in the first quarter, as locomotive and crew shortages, along with other service disruptions, are anticipated to have eroded operational efficiency and shipment volumes. Persistent supply-chain constraints are likely to have strained service levels, while elevated capital spending is expected to have pressured the company’s bottom line.
CSX is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, after market close. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CSX this time around, as it has an Earnings ESP of +0.07% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Earnings ESP was -1.28% and a Zacks Rank #3 when we issued our first-quarter 2026 earnings preview. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
CSX Corporation price-eps-surprise | CSX Corporation Quote
Wabtec
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WAB’s first-quarter 2026 revenues is currently pegged at $2.94 billion, which indicates a 12.5% uptick from the year-ago actual. WAB’s top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter is expected to have been boosted by an uptick in demand for services and components, along with robust sales across the aftermarket and original equipment manufacturing channels.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WAB’s first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 2.67% over the past 60 days to $2.55 per share. The consensus mark for earnings implies an 11.8% upside from the year-ago actual. We expect Wabtec’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been significantly impacted by rising operating expenses. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply-chain disruptions are likely to have weighed on the company’s bottom line.
WAB is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, before market open. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Wabtec this time around, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Earnings ESP was 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 when we issued our first-quarter 2026 earnings preview.
Wabtec Price and EPS Surprise
Wabtec price-eps-surprise | Wabtec Quote
Union Pacific Corporation
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 0.4% over the past 60 days to $2.85 per share. The consensus mark for earnings implies a 5.56% rise from the year-ago actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $6.21 billion, indicating 3.01% growth year over year.
We expect the company’s top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in demand for services. On the contrary, rising operating expenses and geopolitical unrest are expected to have significantly impacted the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. The bottom line is likely to have been weighed down by high fuel costs due to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and supply-chain disruptions.
UNP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 23, before market open. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Union Pacific this time, as it has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Union Pacific Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Union Pacific Corporation price-eps-surprise | Union Pacific Corporation Quote
American Airlines
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $13.81 billion, indicating 10.05% growth year over year. Management now anticipates total revenues for the first quarter to increase more than 10% year over year, up from prior guidance of approximately 7% to 10%. This is the highest ever year-over-year quarterly revenue growth for AAL. Stronger-than-expected demand, backed by effective execution of commercial initiatives and a solid demand backdrop, has encouraged American Airlines to improve its revenue guidance for the first quarter of 2026.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter 2026 loss is currently pegged at 45 cents per share, wider than the loss of 28 cents in the past 60 days. The consensus mark implies a 23.73% upward movement from the year-ago actual. AAL now expects its first-quarter adjusted loss per share to be at the lower end of its previous guided range of loss per share of 50 cents to $1.50.We expect high fuel costs to have dented AAL’s bottom-line performance in the March quarter.
AAL is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 23, before market open. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around, as AAL has an Earnings ESP of -1.90% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Earnings ESP was -0.88% when we issued our first-quarter 2026 earnings preview, and the Zacks Rank was the same.
American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American Airlines Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Airlines Group Inc. Quote