FCX vs. BHP: Which Copper Mining Giant Should You Invest in Now?

Anindya Barman April 22, 2026

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Key Takeaways

FCX's expansion projects aim to boost copper output, backed by a strong financial health.
BHP boosts copper output and invests billions in new projects like the Escondida concentrator.
Copper prices remain volatile yet favorable amid demand strength, supply concerns and global tensions.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) and BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) are two heavyweights in the copper mining industry. Both are navigating fluctuating copper prices and global economic uncertainties.

Prices of copper, the backbone of electrification, started 2026 on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand also supported the red metal. These factors led to prices surging to roughly $6.4 per pound in late January. Prices of the red metal were mostly volatile during February, largely trading near $6 per pound.

Copper prices came under pressure last month amid concerns about the impact of surging oil prices on the global economy due to the war in the Middle East, dragging prices down to a three-month low of around $5.3 per pound in late March. Prices have rebounded since then on hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran war and are currently hovering around $6 per pound.

Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two copper giants to determine which one is a better investment option now.

The Case for Freeport

Freeport continues to leverage its portfolio of high-quality copper assets, emphasizing disciplined execution and organic growth initiatives to strengthen its production profile. It has completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper.

In Arizona, FCX is progressing with pre-feasibility studies at its Safford/Lone Star operations, with completion targeted for 2026, to assess a sizable sulfide expansion opportunity. It has expansion opportunities at Bagdad in Arizona that can more than double the concentrator capacity of the operation. Technical and economic studies have revealed the potential to build concentrating facilities to boost copper production by 200-250 million pounds annually.

PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) is also developing the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district with a targeted ramp-up to commence in 2030. FCX completed studies in 2025 that showed an opportunity to increase Kucing Liar’s design capacity to 130,000 metric tons of ore per day and reserves by roughly 20% at low costs.

FCX has a strong liquidity profile and generates substantial cash flows, providing ample flexibility to fund expansion projects, reduce debt and enhance shareholder returns. It generated solid operating cash flows of $5.6 billion in 2025, including $693 million in the fourth quarter. Freeport ended 2025 with strong liquidity, including $3.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $3 billion in availability under the FCX revolving credit facility, and $1.5 billion in availability under the PT-FI credit facility.

At the end of 2025, Freeport had a net debt of $2.3 billion, excluding PTFI’s new downstream processing facilities. Its net debt is below its targeted range of $3-$4 billion. Freeport has a policy of distributing 50% of the available cash to its shareholders and the balance to either reduce debt or invest in growth projects. FCX has no significant debt maturities until 2027.

FCX offers a dividend yield of roughly 0.4% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 17% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable.

Despite these positives, weak copper volumes and higher costs may hurt FCX’s performance. FCX saw a sharp increase in its average unit net cash cost per pound of copper in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $2.22 from $1.40 in the prior quarter, marking a roughly 59% spike. It also climbed 34% year over year. Freeport's outlook for the first quarter of 2026 suggests higher costs on a sequential basis. It expects unit net cash costs to rise to $2.60 per pound, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.75. Lower expected sales volumes are likely to adversely impact costs in the quarter. Higher costs are expected to weigh on the company's margins.

Freeport’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 29% year over year in the fourth quarter to 709 million pounds, and fell from 977 million pounds in the prior quarter. The company’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 assumes minimal contribution from its Indonesian operations due to the Grasberg mine incident. FCX expects copper sales volumes of 640 million pounds, indicating a 10% sequential and 27% year-over-year decline. The company has issued weaker guidance for gold sales volume of 60,000 ounces, suggesting sequential and year-over-year decreases. Lower sales volumes are expected to weigh on its top line in the first quarter.

The Case for BHP

BHP continues to reshape its portfolio toward commodities such as copper and potash, allocating nearly 70% of its medium-term capital expenditure to these areas. This strategy positions the company to benefit from decarbonization, electrification, population growth and rising living standards in emerging markets. It is also making operations more efficient on the back of smart technology adoption across the entire value chain.

BHP has achieved 30% growth in copper production in the last four years, and copper production reached 984 kt in the first half of fiscal 2026. The company’s expected copper production is 1.9-2 Mt for fiscal 2026. Its revenues increased 11% to $27.9 billion in the first half, reflecting higher copper and iron ore prices.

BHP has submitted the “Escondida New Concentrator” project to the Environmental Assessment System, a move that backs its growth strategy while addressing asset longevity. The new concentrator will replace the historic Los Colorados plant as it nears the end of operations. With an estimated investment of $4.4-$5.9 billion, the project targets new capacity to produce 220-260 kt of copper annually. If executed on schedule, it could provide a significant boost to BHP’s broader copper expansion plans.

The company’s balance sheet remains strong with cash and cash equivalents of $13.5 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025. BHP’s net operating cash flow increased 13% to $9.4 billion in the first half of fiscal 2026, driven by higher realized copper and iron ore prices. Free cash flow increased 10% to $2.9 billion, after spending $5.3 billion on capital and exploration projects. BHP sees opportunities to unlock up to $10 billion through capital portfolio and asset management. BHP also ended the half with net debt of $14.7 billion, well within its $10-$20 billion target range.

BHP remains committed to driving shareholder value, having determined an interim dividend of $3.7 billion. Since the introduction of its capital allocation framework in 2026, BHP has delivered more than $110 billion to its shareholders. BHP offers a dividend yield of roughly 3.6% at the current stock price.