Dow Inc. (DOW Quick QuoteDOW - Free Report) is scheduled to come up with first-quarter 2026 results before the opening bell on April 23.

DOW surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once. It has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 4.3% on average. Dow posted an earnings surprise of 26.1% in the last reported quarter.

Soft demand due to weak global economic activities and higher turnaround and feedstock costs are likely to have affected DOW’s first-quarter performance. The company, however, is expected to have benefited from its cost and productivity initiatives.

Dow’s shares are up 32.1% over the past year compared with the Zacks Chemicals Diversified industry’s 17.6% growth.

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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Our Model Unveils for DOW Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for DOW this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is just the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for DOW is +32.54%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is currently pegged at a loss of 33 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. 

Zacks Rank: DOW currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

What Do DOW’s Revenue Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues for DOW is currently pegged at $9,571.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8.2%.

The consensus estimate for revenues for the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment is currently pegged at $4,726.3 million, calling for a decline of 11% year over year. The same for the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment stands at $2,617.1 million, indicating an 8.3% year-over-year decline.

The consensus estimate for revenues for the Performance Materials & Coatings segment is pinned at $1,959.9 million, suggesting a fall of 5.4% year over year.

Factors at Play for DOW Stock

Demand softness is likely to impact DOW’s performance in the first quarter. Lower consumer spending amid inflationary pressures is affecting demand in Europe. Construction and manufacturing activities remain soft in the region. Demand in Asia has been affected by a weaker demand recovery in China. The property sector in China remains sluggish, with declining new home prices. 

Inflationary pressures are impacting consumer durables and building and construction demand. Demand in infrastructure, including residential construction, also remains weak. Dow is also seeing softness in automotive in Europe due to weak demand. Weak conditions across these markets are likely to have weighed on DOW’s volumes in the first quarter. Weak macroeconomic conditions due to tariff-related disruptions are expected to have affected business and consumer sentiment. 

The company also faces headwinds from higher feedstock and energy costs, which are expected to have weighed on the margins in the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment. Supply disruptions due to severe cold weather have contributed to an uptick in feedstock prices. 

Dow is also likely to have faced challenges from turnaround costs and operational issues in the first quarter. It sees a $125 million headwind from higher maintenance activities at one of its crackers in Louisiana, impacting the Packaging & Specialty Plastics unit. Also, another $15 million headwind is expected in the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure division from higher planned maintenance activity. 

Nevertheless, Dow is likely to have benefited from cost-saving and productivity actions. DOW is implementing targeted actions focused on reducing direct costs and labor costs. It is taking action to cut costs by $1 billion to drive margins. Dow realized more than $400 million of benefits from these actions in 2025, with the remaining benefits expected by 2026. 

DOW has launched the “Transform to Outperform” initiative to improve productivity, reduce complexity, streamline its end-to-end processes and enable improved returns. The plan targets at least $2 billion near-term operating EBITDA improvement, with two-thirds of the benefits expected to be realized from productivity improvements. The benefits of its cost-saving and productivity actions are likely to reflect in its bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.

Dow Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Dow Inc. price-eps-surprise | Dow Inc. Quote

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF Quick QuoteCF - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +7.21% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for CF’s earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at $2.22.

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC Quick QuoteKGC - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on April 29, has an Earnings ESP of +8.68%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC's earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 67 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. 

Newmont Corporation (NEM Quick QuoteNEM - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on April 23, has an Earnings ESP of +1.16% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for NEM’s first-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $2.07.