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In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) and total revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6% and 7%, respectively. On the contrary, both metrics declined year over year by 17.7% and 6.3%, respectively.
PulteGroup’s earnings topped the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.7%.
Trend in PHM Stock’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PHM’s first-quarter EPS has declined to $1.80 from $1.83 over the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 30% decrease from the year-ago EPS of $2.57.
The consensus mark for total revenues is pegged at $3.39 billion, implying a 13% year-over-year decline.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped PulteGroup’s Q1 Earnings
Revenues
PulteGroup's first-quarter top line is likely to have decreased year over year due to lower home-closing volumes and a lower average selling price (ASP) for homes closed. This dismal demand condition is expected to have stemmed from the ongoing housing market cyclicality, reduced employment opportunities and a risky mortgage rate scenario, which continued to impact homebuyers’ intention to own a new house. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, per Freddie Mac, between Jan. 8 and March 26 spiked from 6.16% to 6.38%, given the geopolitical tensions and rising inflationary pressures.
Although PHM’s balanced operating model, mortgage rate buydown program and favorable home pricing are likely to have supported its underlying prospects, the current uncertainties surrounding the housing market are expected to have overshadowed the top-line performance.
For the first quarter, the homebuilder expects home closings to be between 5700 and 6100 units, down from 6,583 units a year ago. Our model predicts home closings to decline 9.5% year over year to 5,958 units.
Segment-wise, for the first quarter, our model predicts overall Homebuilding revenues (which contributed 98% to total revenues in the fourth quarter of 2025) to decrease 12.3% year over year to $3.33 billion due to lower home closings. Our model expects Financial Services revenues (which contributed 2% to total revenues in the fourth quarter) to tumble 9.8% year over year to $81.9 million.
The company’s pricing approach remains centered on maintaining affordability for homebuyers while adapting to evolving market conditions. It expects the home closing ASP for the upcoming quarter to be between $550,000 and $560,000 compared with the year-ago level of $570,000. Our model predicts the ASP of homes closed to decrease 3.2% year over year to $551,600.
Margins
PulteGroup is likely to have faced significant margin pressure in the first quarter due to the need for incentives to manage affordability concerns while maintaining profitability. The company's bottom line is expected to have decreased year over year in the quarter due to higher incentive costs stemming from competitive market dynamics. Elevated direct costs related to land sales also pressured the bottom line, alongside a decline in revenues.
The company expects home sales gross margin to be between 24.5% and 25% for the quarter, down from 27.5% reported in the year-ago period. PHM expects SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales revenues) to be approximately 11.5%, up from 10.5% a year ago.
Our model predicts homebuilding gross margin to be 24.7% for the quarter, down 280 basis points (bps) from the year-ago period. We predict SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales revenues) to be in line with the company’s expectations, up 100 bps year over year.
Orders & Backlogs
Our model expects PulteGroup’s net new orders to inch down 0.4% year over year to 7,736 units in the first quarter. We expect the total backlog to decline 9.4% to 10,273 units, with the total backlog value dropping 11% year over year to $6.43 billion.
What Our Model Unveils for PHM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for PulteGroup this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
PHM’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.48%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of PHM: The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Construction sector, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time.
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.42% and a Zacks Rank of 1.
Comfort Systems’ earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 35.2%. Comfort Systems’ earnings for the first quarter of 2026 are expected to increase 51.4% year over year.
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +14.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Vulcan’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining two occasions, the average surprise being 2.1%. Vulcan’s earnings for the first quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 13% compared to the prior year.
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
MasTec’s earnings beat estimates in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.4%. MasTec’s earnings for the first quarter of 2026 are expected to surge 92.2% year over year.
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PulteGroup to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect This Season
Key Takeaways
PulteGroup Inc. (PHM - Free Report) is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 23, before the opening bell.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) and total revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6% and 7%, respectively. On the contrary, both metrics declined year over year by 17.7% and 6.3%, respectively.
PulteGroup’s earnings topped the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.7%.
Trend in PHM Stock’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PHM’s first-quarter EPS has declined to $1.80 from $1.83 over the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 30% decrease from the year-ago EPS of $2.57.
The consensus mark for total revenues is pegged at $3.39 billion, implying a 13% year-over-year decline.
PulteGroup, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
PulteGroup, Inc. price-eps-surprise | PulteGroup, Inc. Quote
Factors Likely to Have Shaped PulteGroup’s Q1 Earnings
Revenues
PulteGroup's first-quarter top line is likely to have decreased year over year due to lower home-closing volumes and a lower average selling price (ASP) for homes closed. This dismal demand condition is expected to have stemmed from the ongoing housing market cyclicality, reduced employment opportunities and a risky mortgage rate scenario, which continued to impact homebuyers’ intention to own a new house. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, per Freddie Mac, between Jan. 8 and March 26 spiked from 6.16% to 6.38%, given the geopolitical tensions and rising inflationary pressures.
Although PHM’s balanced operating model, mortgage rate buydown program and favorable home pricing are likely to have supported its underlying prospects, the current uncertainties surrounding the housing market are expected to have overshadowed the top-line performance.
For the first quarter, the homebuilder expects home closings to be between 5700 and 6100 units, down from 6,583 units a year ago. Our model predicts home closings to decline 9.5% year over year to 5,958 units.
Segment-wise, for the first quarter, our model predicts overall Homebuilding revenues (which contributed 98% to total revenues in the fourth quarter of 2025) to decrease 12.3% year over year to $3.33 billion due to lower home closings. Our model expects Financial Services revenues (which contributed 2% to total revenues in the fourth quarter) to tumble 9.8% year over year to $81.9 million.
The company’s pricing approach remains centered on maintaining affordability for homebuyers while adapting to evolving market conditions. It expects the home closing ASP for the upcoming quarter to be between $550,000 and $560,000 compared with the year-ago level of $570,000. Our model predicts the ASP of homes closed to decrease 3.2% year over year to $551,600.
Margins
PulteGroup is likely to have faced significant margin pressure in the first quarter due to the need for incentives to manage affordability concerns while maintaining profitability. The company's bottom line is expected to have decreased year over year in the quarter due to higher incentive costs stemming from competitive market dynamics. Elevated direct costs related to land sales also pressured the bottom line, alongside a decline in revenues.
The company expects home sales gross margin to be between 24.5% and 25% for the quarter, down from 27.5% reported in the year-ago period. PHM expects SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales revenues) to be approximately 11.5%, up from 10.5% a year ago.
Our model predicts homebuilding gross margin to be 24.7% for the quarter, down 280 basis points (bps) from the year-ago period. We predict SG&A expenses (as a percentage of home sales revenues) to be in line with the company’s expectations, up 100 bps year over year.
Orders & Backlogs
Our model expects PulteGroup’s net new orders to inch down 0.4% year over year to 7,736 units in the first quarter. We expect the total backlog to decline 9.4% to 10,273 units, with the total backlog value dropping 11% year over year to $6.43 billion.
What Our Model Unveils for PHM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for PulteGroup this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
PHM’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.48%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank of PHM: The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Construction sector, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time.
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.42% and a Zacks Rank of 1.
Comfort Systems’ earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 35.2%. Comfort Systems’ earnings for the first quarter of 2026 are expected to increase 51.4% year over year.
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +14.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Vulcan’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on the remaining two occasions, the average surprise being 2.1%. Vulcan’s earnings for the first quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 13% compared to the prior year.
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
MasTec’s earnings beat estimates in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.4%. MasTec’s earnings for the first quarter of 2026 are expected to surge 92.2% year over year.