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NXPI to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • NXPI reports Q1 on April 28; consensus estimate for revenues is $3.12B, up 10% year over year.
  • NXP Semiconductors sees Automotive up mid-single digits; Industrial & IoT up low-20% range.
  • Rising geopolitical tensions, trade war and China risks could weigh on NXPI's Q1 performance.

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, after market close.

NXPI expects first-quarter revenues between $3.05 billion and $3.25 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.12 billion, indicating an increase of 10% year over year.

For the first quarter, NXP Semiconductors anticipates non-GAAP earnings per share between $2.77 and $3.17. The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at $2.97 per share, unchanged over the past 60 days, suggesting an increase of 12.5% year over year.

In the trailing four quarters, NXPI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, while matching once, with the average surprise being 1.4%.

NXP Semiconductors N.V. Price and EPS Surprise

NXP Semiconductors N.V. Price and EPS Surprise

NXP Semiconductors N.V. price-eps-surprise | NXP Semiconductors N.V. Quote

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the upcoming quarterly results.

Factors to Consider for NXPI

NXP Semiconductors’ first-quarter performance is expected to have reflected stabilizing demand in the Automotive end market. Inventory normalization at Tier-1 customers is likely to have kept automotive growth modest during the reported quarter as shipments increasingly aligned with end demand. The company expects revenues from the Automotive end market to be up mid-single digits on a year-over-year basis. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Automotive revenues is currently pegged at $1.78 billion, indicating an increase of 6.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Recovery in the Industrial and Internet of Things (IoT) market, supported by improving customer backlog, better order trends and strength in areas such as energy storage and building automation, is likely to have boded well for NXPI’s prospects in the to-be-reported quarter. The company expects revenues from Industrial & IoT end markets to be up in the low-20% range year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NXPI’s Industrial & IoT revenues is pegged at $611.8 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 20.5%.

Strong seasonal demand in the Mobile end market is expected to have benefited NXPI’s performance in the first quarter. Growth is anticipated to have been driven by wallet-related products and custom analog sold to Tier-1 customers. NXPI expects revenues from the Mobile end market to be up in the mid-teen percent range on a year-over-year basis. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $391 million for the Mobile end market implies an increase of 15.7% from the year-ago quarter.

The Communications Infrastructure & Other segment’s first-quarter prospects are expected to have benefited from normalization in the digital networking business, supported by strength in secure card solutions. NXPI expects revenues from Communication Infrastructure & Other end markets to be up in the mid-teen percentage range on a year-over-year basis. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Communications Infrastructure & Others segment revenues is pegged at $367.9 million, indicating an increase of 16.8% on a year-over-year basis.

However, NXP Semiconductors’ first-quarter performance is anticipated to have been hurt by macroeconomic headwinds and escalating geopolitical tensions, along with the U.S.-China trade war and tariff hikes, as NXPI is a major player in China, accounting for 39% of its annual revenues in 2025.

What Our Proven Model Says for NXPI’s Q4 Earnings

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for NXP Semiconductors this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

NXP Semiconductors has an Earnings ESP of -0.45% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Garmin (GRMN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.54% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Garmin is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 29. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Garmin’s first-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.84 per share, up by a penny over the past seven days, indicating a rise of 14.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

nVent Electric (NVT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.07% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

nVent Electric is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for nVent Electric’s first-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at 94 cents per share, up by a penny over the past 30 days, indicating a rise of 40.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

It is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 30. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Monolithic Power Systems’ first-quarter earnings is pegged at $4.89 per share, unchanged over the past 60 days, indicating a rise of 21% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

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