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Will Declining Memberships Weigh on Centene's Q1 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
Centene is set to report Q1 2026 earnings on April 28, with EPS seen down 36.2% year over year.
CNC faces pressure from higher medical costs, with health benefits ratio rising to 89.3%.
Membership declines in Medicaid and commercial are expected to offset Medicare PDP growth.
Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) , a healthcare plan provider, is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is currently pegged at $1.85 per share on revenues of $47.47 billion.
The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decrease of 36.2% and the top-line estimate implies an increase of 1.8%. The first-quarter earnings estimate has witnessed two downward revisions and one upward movement over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $189.5 billion, indicating a 2.7% year-over-year decline. The consensus estimate for earnings per share is pinned at $3.01, implying a significant 44.7% year-over-year increase.
Centene beat on earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other one, with the average surprise being 60.6%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.
CNC has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total commercial memberships indicates a 35% year-over-year decrease, primarily due to a decline in the commercial marketplace. The consensus estimate for Medicare PDP memberships implies 10% growth from the year-ago quarter’s level. The consensus estimate for total Medicaid memberships indicates a 5.1% decline from the year-ago level. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total membership indicates a 7.4% year-over-year decline due to a fall in Medicaid and commercial memberships.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium suggests an increase of about 2.2% year over year.
The consensus estimate for service revenues indicates a 10.8% deterioration from the year-ago quarter’s $777 million. The consensus mark for investment and other income implies an 8.6% year-over-year decline from $382 million.
In line with broader industry trends, Centene is expected to have faced elevated medical costs in the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the health benefits ratio is pegged at 89.3%, up from 87.1% in the year-ago period, indicating that a smaller share of premiums is retained after claims. This rise in costs likely pressured margins, making an earnings beat less certain.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Centene this time around, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that may be worth considering, as our model indicates they have the right combination of factors to deliver an earnings beat:
Agenus Inc. (AGEN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Agenus’ first-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at $1.95, indicating 289.3% year-over-year growth. AGEN has witnessed one upward revision against no downward movement over the past 60 days. The consensus mark for Agenus’ revenues is pegged at $129.50 million, implying an approximate 483% increase from that posted a year ago.
The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.12% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ensign’s first-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at $1.79, calling for 17.8% year-over-year growth. ENSG’s earnings estimate has remained stable over the past 60 days. The consensus mark for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.39 billion, implying an 18.5% increase from the year-ago level.
The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.75% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna Group’s first-quarter 2026 earnings of $7.54 per share has witnessed one upward revision over the past 60 days, with one movement in the opposite direction. Cigna Group beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 2.7%. The consensus estimate for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $66.74 billion, suggesting 2% year-over-year growth.
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Will Declining Memberships Weigh on Centene's Q1 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Centene Corporation (CNC - Free Report) , a healthcare plan provider, is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is currently pegged at $1.85 per share on revenues of $47.47 billion.
The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decrease of 36.2% and the top-line estimate implies an increase of 1.8%. The first-quarter earnings estimate has witnessed two downward revisions and one upward movement over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $189.5 billion, indicating a 2.7% year-over-year decline. The consensus estimate for earnings per share is pinned at $3.01, implying a significant 44.7% year-over-year increase.
Centene beat on earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other one, with the average surprise being 60.6%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Centene Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Centene Corporation price-eps-surprise | Centene Corporation Quote
Q1 Earnings Whispers for Centene
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.
CNC has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping Centene’s Q1 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total commercial memberships indicates a 35% year-over-year decrease, primarily due to a decline in the commercial marketplace. The consensus estimate for Medicare PDP memberships implies 10% growth from the year-ago quarter’s level. The consensus estimate for total Medicaid memberships indicates a 5.1% decline from the year-ago level. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total membership indicates a 7.4% year-over-year decline due to a fall in Medicaid and commercial memberships.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium suggests an increase of about 2.2% year over year.
The consensus estimate for service revenues indicates a 10.8% deterioration from the year-ago quarter’s $777 million. The consensus mark for investment and other income implies an 8.6% year-over-year decline from $382 million.
In line with broader industry trends, Centene is expected to have faced elevated medical costs in the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the health benefits ratio is pegged at 89.3%, up from 87.1% in the year-ago period, indicating that a smaller share of premiums is retained after claims. This rise in costs likely pressured margins, making an earnings beat less certain.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Centene this time around, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that may be worth considering, as our model indicates they have the right combination of factors to deliver an earnings beat:
Agenus Inc. (AGEN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Agenus’ first-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at $1.95, indicating 289.3% year-over-year growth. AGEN has witnessed one upward revision against no downward movement over the past 60 days. The consensus mark for Agenus’ revenues is pegged at $129.50 million, implying an approximate 483% increase from that posted a year ago.
The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.12% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ensign’s first-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at $1.79, calling for 17.8% year-over-year growth. ENSG’s earnings estimate has remained stable over the past 60 days. The consensus mark for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.39 billion, implying an 18.5% increase from the year-ago level.
The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.75% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna Group’s first-quarter 2026 earnings of $7.54 per share has witnessed one upward revision over the past 60 days, with one movement in the opposite direction. Cigna Group beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 2.7%. The consensus estimate for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $66.74 billion, suggesting 2% year-over-year growth.