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What to Expect From OWL's Q1 Earnings Amid Private Credit Concerns
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Key Takeaways
Blue Owl reports on April 30; Q1 consensus is 19 cents EPS ( 11.8% y/y) on $698.6M sales ( 12.6%).
OWL AUM seen at $318.3B, up 3.5% q/q, but slower fundraising and BDC retail redemptions weigh on it.
FRE est.: Credit $430.6M and GP Strategic $169.5M rise; Real Assets $105.7M expected to fall 9.1% q/q.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL - Free Report) is set to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, before market open. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have increased on a year-over-year basis despite the ongoing private credit headwinds.
In the last reported quarter, Blue Owl beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings, largely driven by higher revenues and record assets under management (AUM). This was partially offset by an increase in expenses.
OWL doesn’t have an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only one of the trailing four quarters, with the average negative surprise being 0.36%.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts, let us check the factors that are likely to have impacted Blue Owl’s first-quarter performance.
Factors Likely to Influence Blue Owl’s Q1 Earnings
Supported by decent inflows, OWL is expected to have recorded AUM growth in first quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company's total AUM rose 22% year over year and crossed the record $300 billion mark for the first time. Fee-Paying AUM (FPAUM) was $187.7 billion, up 17%.
However, slower fundraising and rising retail redemptions across non-trading business development companies (BDCs) are likely to have negatively impacted Blue Owl’s AUM and FPAUM growth in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM for the first quarter is pegged at $318.3 billion, indicating growth of 3.5% from the prior quarter.
Blue Owl’s Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) revenues in the Credit platform and GP Strategic Capital platform are likely to have increased, while FRE revenues in the Real Assets platform are expected to have declined because of higher redemption requests in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of FRE revenues by platform is $430.6 million in Credit, $105.7 million in Real Assets and $169.5 million in GP Strategic Capital. FRE revenues in Credit and GP Strategic Capital platform are expected to have grown 2% and 3.9%, respectively, on a sequential basis, while FRE revenues for the Real Assets platform are likely to have declined 9.1%.
Blue Owl’s expenses have been increasing over the past few years, mainly because of higher general, administrative and other expenses. As the company continues to invest in franchises, expenses are expected to have risen to some extent in the first quarter as well.
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for OWL
According to our quantitative model, the chances of Blue Owl beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Blue Owl is -6.52%.
Zacks Rank: OWL currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Q1 Earnings & Sales Estimates for OWL
In the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has remained unchanged at 19 cents. This indicates an 11.8% rise from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus estimate for quarterly sales is pegged at $698.6 million, which suggests a 12.6% increase.
Finance Stocks Worth a Look
Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hope Bancorp’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 22 cents.
First Busey Corporation (BUSE - Free Report) is also scheduled to report quarterly results on April 28. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.02% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for First Busey’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 57 cents.
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What to Expect From OWL's Q1 Earnings Amid Private Credit Concerns
Key Takeaways
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL - Free Report) is set to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, before market open. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have increased on a year-over-year basis despite the ongoing private credit headwinds.
In the last reported quarter, Blue Owl beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings, largely driven by higher revenues and record assets under management (AUM). This was partially offset by an increase in expenses.
OWL doesn’t have an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only one of the trailing four quarters, with the average negative surprise being 0.36%.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Blue Owl Capital Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Blue Owl Capital Inc. Quote
Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts, let us check the factors that are likely to have impacted Blue Owl’s first-quarter performance.
Factors Likely to Influence Blue Owl’s Q1 Earnings
Supported by decent inflows, OWL is expected to have recorded AUM growth in first quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company's total AUM rose 22% year over year and crossed the record $300 billion mark for the first time. Fee-Paying AUM (FPAUM) was $187.7 billion, up 17%.
However, slower fundraising and rising retail redemptions across non-trading business development companies (BDCs) are likely to have negatively impacted Blue Owl’s AUM and FPAUM growth in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM for the first quarter is pegged at $318.3 billion, indicating growth of 3.5% from the prior quarter.
Blue Owl’s Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) revenues in the Credit platform and GP Strategic Capital platform are likely to have increased, while FRE revenues in the Real Assets platform are expected to have declined because of higher redemption requests in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of FRE revenues by platform is $430.6 million in Credit, $105.7 million in Real Assets and $169.5 million in GP Strategic Capital. FRE revenues in Credit and GP Strategic Capital platform are expected to have grown 2% and 3.9%, respectively, on a sequential basis, while FRE revenues for the Real Assets platform are likely to have declined 9.1%.
Blue Owl’s expenses have been increasing over the past few years, mainly because of higher general, administrative and other expenses. As the company continues to invest in franchises, expenses are expected to have risen to some extent in the first quarter as well.
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for OWL
According to our quantitative model, the chances of Blue Owl beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Blue Owl is -6.52%.
Zacks Rank: OWL currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Q1 Earnings & Sales Estimates for OWL
In the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has remained unchanged at 19 cents. This indicates an 11.8% rise from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus estimate for quarterly sales is pegged at $698.6 million, which suggests a 12.6% increase.
Finance Stocks Worth a Look
Here are a couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The Earnings ESP for Hope Bancorp, Inc. (HOPE - Free Report) is +7.87% and it sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The company is slated to report quarterly results on April 28. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hope Bancorp’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 22 cents.
First Busey Corporation (BUSE - Free Report) is also scheduled to report quarterly results on April 28. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.02% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for First Busey’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 57 cents.