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Are These 3 Insurance Stocks Set to Beat Q1 Earnings Estimates?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
Better pricing, retention, and exposure growth may aid premium gains despite global insurance rate declines.
Underwriting profit may benefit from reinsurance actions, reserve development, and portfolio repositioning.
Higher investment income, technology spending and capital strength may aid margins and shareholder returns.
Continued improved pricing, exposure growth, portfolio streamlining, solid retention, renewals, reinsurance agreements, and accelerated digitalization are expected to have enhanced insurance stocks’ March-quarter performance. However, catastrophe losses are likely to have weighed on the upside. Insurers yet to report their first-quarter results on April 28 are Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) , Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) , and RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR - Free Report) .
The insurance space is housed within the broader Finance sector (one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification). Per the latest Earnings Preview, the total earnings of finance companies for the first quarter are anticipated to rise 27.3% from the prior-year quarter’s figure. These companies’ revenues are anticipated to improve 9.7%.
Factors Likely to Shape Insurers’ Performance in Q1
Better pricing, solid retention and exposure growth across business lines are likely to have driven premiums. Per the latest Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, in the first quarter of 2026, global insurance rates declined 5%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of rate decreases. Property rates reduced by 9%, while casualty rates increased 3%, attributable to challenges in the United States.
Aon has estimated that global insured catastrophe losses amounted to at least $20 billion in the first quarter of 2026, 6% above the 21st-century average. Aon’s report also noted that natural catastrophes in the United States accounted for more than 75% of global insured losses in the first quarter of 2026, reaching around $16 billion.
Per Gallagher Re, global natural catastrophe events in the first quarter of 2026 resulted in an estimated $58 billion in direct economic losses. Per Gallagher Re, in the first quarter of 2026, global and regional natural catastrophe activity and loss totals were comparatively lower than the first three months of previous years.
Underwriting profit is likely to have benefited from better pricing, reinsurance arrangements, portfolio repositioning, reinsurance covers and favorable reserve development.
Auto premiums are likely to have improved, given increased travel across the world.
The Fed left the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5-3.75% target range for a second consecutive meeting in March 2026, in line with expectations. The Fed still projects a single rate cut in 2026, but also expects inflation and economic growth to rise from its previous projections.
A larger investment asset base, strong cash flow from operating activities, higher bond yields and an increase in interest income from fixed-maturity securities are expected to have aided net investment income.
The insurance industry’s increased use of technology like blockchain, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, telematics, cloud computing and robotic process automation expedites business operations. Insurers continue to invest heavily in technology to improve basis points, scale, and efficiencies. These investments are likely to have curbed costs and aided the margins of insurers in the first quarter.
A solid capital position is likely to have aided insurers in strategic mergers and acquisitions to sharpen their competitive edge, expand geographically and diversify their portfolio. Sustained wealth distribution to shareholders via dividend hikes, special dividends and share repurchases instill confidence in the insurers.
Let’s find out how the following insurers are placed before their first-quarter 2026 results on April 28.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Per our proprietary model, the combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Unum Group: Favorable persistency and better sales in the operating segments are likely to have favored premiums in the first quarter. Net investment income is likely to have increased due to higher invested assets and miscellaneous investment income. The performance of Unum U.S. and Colonial Life — two of the largest operating segments — is likely to have been driven by stable overall persistency in the voluntary benefits and dental and vision product lines, and higher prior period sales in the voluntary benefits product line, improved benefit experience across life, accident, sickness, and disability product lines, and in-force block growth. Better performance in life and group disability is likely to aid Unum U.S. results. Favorable results at group long-term disability, Group Life, and Supplemental are likely to favor Unum UK. This, combined with in-force block growth, sales, and favorable overall persistency at Unum Poland, is likely to have benefited Unum International. (Read more: What's in the Cards for Unum Group This Earnings Season?)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s first-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.06 per share, indicating an increase of 0.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
UNM’s earnings missed estimates in each of the last four quarters. This is depicted in the chart below:
Arch Capital: Rate increases, new business opportunities and growth in existing accounts, product innovation, market expansion and strong underwriting performance, combined with strategic investments, are likely to have favored net premiums earned. The Mortgage segment is likely to have declined due to the lower gross premiums written and expenses related to tender offers of certain Bellemeade Re mortgage insurance-linked notes. Net investment income is likely to have benefited from solid net cash flow from operating activities, which is expected to have increased the invested asset base. The top line is likely to have gained from improved earned premiums and higher net investment income. Prudent underwriting, combined with better pricing and increased exposure, is likely to have improved underwriting profitability. A not-so-active catastrophe environment is expected to have added to the upside, leading to an improvement in the combined ratio. (Read more: Is a Beat in the Cards for Arch Capital This Earnings Season?)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arch Capital’s first-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.45 per share suggests an improvement of 59.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Arch Capital’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 17.57%. The same is depicted in the chart below:
RenaissanceRe: RNR’s premium is likely to have benefited from premium growth at both its Casualty and Specialty, plus Property segments. Management anticipates Casualty & Specialty, net premiums earned of around $1.4 billion in the first quarter of 2026, while other property net premiums earned are expected to be approximately $360 million. RNR increased retained net investment income to $279 million in the first quarter and expects management fees to be around $50 million and performance fees to return to around $30 million. Expenses are likely to have increased owing to higher net claims and claim expenses, acquisition costs, and operational expenses. Continued share buybacks are likely to have aided the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line is pegged at $11.07, indicating an 842.9% increase from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.97% and a Zacks Rank #3.
RNR’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing in one. This is depicted in the chart below:
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Are These 3 Insurance Stocks Set to Beat Q1 Earnings Estimates?
Key Takeaways
Continued improved pricing, exposure growth, portfolio streamlining, solid retention, renewals, reinsurance agreements, and accelerated digitalization are expected to have enhanced insurance stocks’ March-quarter performance. However, catastrophe losses are likely to have weighed on the upside. Insurers yet to report their first-quarter results on April 28 are Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) , Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) , and RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR - Free Report) .
The insurance space is housed within the broader Finance sector (one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification). Per the latest Earnings Preview, the total earnings of finance companies for the first quarter are anticipated to rise 27.3% from the prior-year quarter’s figure. These companies’ revenues are anticipated to improve 9.7%.
Factors Likely to Shape Insurers’ Performance in Q1
Better pricing, solid retention and exposure growth across business lines are likely to have driven premiums. Per the latest Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, in the first quarter of 2026, global insurance rates declined 5%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of rate decreases. Property rates reduced by 9%, while casualty rates increased 3%, attributable to challenges in the United States.
Aon has estimated that global insured catastrophe losses amounted to at least $20 billion in the first quarter of 2026, 6% above the 21st-century average. Aon’s report also noted that natural catastrophes in the United States accounted for more than 75% of global insured losses in the first quarter of 2026, reaching around $16 billion.
Per Gallagher Re, global natural catastrophe events in the first quarter of 2026 resulted in an estimated $58 billion in direct economic losses. Per Gallagher Re, in the first quarter of 2026, global and regional natural catastrophe activity and loss totals were comparatively lower than the first three months of previous years.
Underwriting profit is likely to have benefited from better pricing, reinsurance arrangements, portfolio repositioning, reinsurance covers and favorable reserve development.
Auto premiums are likely to have improved, given increased travel across the world.
The Fed left the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5-3.75% target range for a second consecutive meeting in March 2026, in line with expectations. The Fed still projects a single rate cut in 2026, but also expects inflation and economic growth to rise from its previous projections.
A larger investment asset base, strong cash flow from operating activities, higher bond yields and an increase in interest income from fixed-maturity securities are expected to have aided net investment income.
The insurance industry’s increased use of technology like blockchain, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, telematics, cloud computing and robotic process automation expedites business operations. Insurers continue to invest heavily in technology to improve basis points, scale, and efficiencies. These investments are likely to have curbed costs and aided the margins of insurers in the first quarter.
A solid capital position is likely to have aided insurers in strategic mergers and acquisitions to sharpen their competitive edge, expand geographically and diversify their portfolio. Sustained wealth distribution to shareholders via dividend hikes, special dividends and share repurchases instill confidence in the insurers.
Let’s find out how the following insurers are placed before their first-quarter 2026 results on April 28.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Per our proprietary model, the combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Unum Group: Favorable persistency and better sales in the operating segments are likely to have favored premiums in the first quarter. Net investment income is likely to have increased due to higher invested assets and miscellaneous investment income. The performance of Unum U.S. and Colonial Life — two of the largest operating segments — is likely to have been driven by stable overall persistency in the voluntary benefits and dental and vision product lines, and higher prior period sales in the voluntary benefits product line, improved benefit experience across life, accident, sickness, and disability product lines, and in-force block growth. Better performance in life and group disability is likely to aid Unum U.S. results. Favorable results at group long-term disability, Group Life, and Supplemental are likely to favor Unum UK. This, combined with in-force block growth, sales, and favorable overall persistency at Unum Poland, is likely to have benefited Unum International. (Read more: What's in the Cards for Unum Group This Earnings Season?)
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s first-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.06 per share, indicating an increase of 0.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
UNM’s earnings missed estimates in each of the last four quarters. This is depicted in the chart below:
Unum Group Price and EPS Surprise
Unum Group price-eps-surprise | Unum Group Quote
Arch Capital: Rate increases, new business opportunities and growth in existing accounts, product innovation, market expansion and strong underwriting performance, combined with strategic investments, are likely to have favored net premiums earned. The Mortgage segment is likely to have declined due to the lower gross premiums written and expenses related to tender offers of certain Bellemeade Re mortgage insurance-linked notes. Net investment income is likely to have benefited from solid net cash flow from operating activities, which is expected to have increased the invested asset base. The top line is likely to have gained from improved earned premiums and higher net investment income. Prudent underwriting, combined with better pricing and increased exposure, is likely to have improved underwriting profitability. A not-so-active catastrophe environment is expected to have added to the upside, leading to an improvement in the combined ratio. (Read more: Is a Beat in the Cards for Arch Capital This Earnings Season?)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arch Capital’s first-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.45 per share suggests an improvement of 59.1% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Arch Capital’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 17.57%. The same is depicted in the chart below:
Arch Capital Group Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise
Arch Capital Group Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Arch Capital Group Ltd. Quote
RenaissanceRe: RNR’s premium is likely to have benefited from premium growth at both its Casualty and Specialty, plus Property segments. Management anticipates Casualty & Specialty, net premiums earned of around $1.4 billion in the first quarter of 2026, while other property net premiums earned are expected to be approximately $360 million. RNR increased retained net investment income to $279 million in the first quarter and expects management fees to be around $50 million and performance fees to return to around $30 million. Expenses are likely to have increased owing to higher net claims and claim expenses, acquisition costs, and operational expenses. Continued share buybacks are likely to have aided the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line is pegged at $11.07, indicating an 842.9% increase from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.97% and a Zacks Rank #3.
RNR’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing in one. This is depicted in the chart below:
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. price-eps-surprise | RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Quote