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Will These 5 Drug Bigwigs Surpass Q1 Earnings Forecasts?

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Key Takeaways

  • LLY's Q1 2026 sales likely got a lift from Mounjaro and Zepbound demand, despite lower pricing.
  • MRK may beat estimates as Keytruda, oncology drugs and Animal Health support Q1 sales.
  • ABBV, BMY and BIIB look to balance new drug gains in Q1 2026 against legacy drug declines.

The first-quarter 2026 reporting cycle for the Medical sector is about to accelerate, as most companies are scheduled to release results over the next two weeks. The earnings season for the drug and biotech sector began earlier this month when pharma bellwether Johnson & Johnson reported solid first-quarter results, beating estimates for both earnings and sales. Reflecting the strong performance, J&J modestly raised its 2026 financial guidance, signaling confidence in sustained growth across both its Innovative Medicine and MedTech businesses.

Last week, Swiss pharma giant Roche reported first-quarter 2026 results, which were weighed down by unfavorable foreign-exchange movements, as weakness in the U.S. dollar adversely impacted international sales. Nonetheless, the company’s underlying operational performance was solid as robust growth in key products helped offset declining sales of legacy drugs.

Also, last week, French pharma giant Sanofi reported strong first-quarter results, beating estimates for both earnings and sales. Higher sales of blockbuster drug, Dupixent, and contributions from new products like Altuviiio and Ayvakit continued to drive the top-line growth.

Per the Zacks classification, the pharma/biotech industry falls under the broader Medical sector, comprising pharma/biotech and generic companies, and medical device companies.

Per the Earnings Trends report, as of April 22, 13.8% of the companies in the Medical sector — representing 27.5% of the sector’s market capitalization — reported quarterly earnings. Out of these, 87.5% surpassed earnings estimates, while 87.5% beat the same for revenues. Earnings increased 2% year over year, while revenues rose 3.6%. Overall, first-quarter earnings of the Medical sector are expected to decrease 7.1%, while sales are projected to rise 6.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) , Merck (MRK - Free Report) , AbbVie (ABBV - Free Report) , Bristol Myers (BMY - Free Report) and Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) are all slated to release their first-quarter results this week. Let us examine how these biotech/pharma companies are likely to have performed in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

Eli Lilly

Eli Lilly’s performance has been mixed, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while missing on the remaining occasion. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.96%, on average. In the last reported quarter, LLY delivered a positive earnings surprise of 7.87%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $17.78 billion and $7.26 per share, respectively.

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Eli Lilly has an Earnings ESP of -4.83% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the first quarter of 2026, like the past few quarters, the key drivers of Lilly’s top-line growth are likely to have been its popular GLP-1 drugs, diabetes drug Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound, driven by high demand trends, partially offset by lower pricing.

LLY is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 30, before market open.

Eli Lilly and Company Price and EPS Surprise

Eli Lilly and Company Price and EPS Surprise

Eli Lilly and Company price-eps-surprise | Eli Lilly and Company Quote

Merck

Merck’s performance has been solid, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.76%, on average. In the last reported quarter, MRK delivered an earnings surprise of 0.49%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter top line is pegged at $15.90 billion, while the same for the bottom line stands at a loss of $1.51 per share.

MRK has an Earnings ESP of +3.14% and a Zacks Rank #3, indicating a likely positive earnings surprise this time around.

Merck’s top-line growth in the first quarter is expected to be driven by higher sales of Keytruda and other oncology drugs, Animal Health and new products, which may have been partially offset by lower sales of Gardasil and some other vaccines, as well as generic competition for some key drugs.

MRK is set to report its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 30, before market open.

Merck & Co., Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Merck & Co., Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Merck & Co., Inc. price-eps-surprise | Merck & Co., Inc. Quote

AbbVie

AbbVie’s performance has been impressive, with its earnings exceeding expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.17%. In the last reported quarter, ABBV delivered an earnings surprise of 1.88%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $14.78 billion and $2.62 per share, respectively.

ABBV has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

AbbVie’s top-line growth in the first quarter is likely to have been driven by higher sales of newer immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. We expect both drugs to have expanded their market share across all approved indications.

Also, sales of the company’s flagship drug Humira are likely to have continued their downward trend due to biosimilar erosion.

ABBV is set to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 29, before the opening bell.

AbbVie Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

AbbVie Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

AbbVie Inc. price-eps-surprise | AbbVie Inc. Quote

Bristol Myers

Bristol Myers has an excellent track record. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 18.84%. In the previously reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 9.57%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $10.92 billion and $1.44 per share, respectively.

BMY has an Earnings ESP of -1.02% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

In the first quarter of 2026, Bristol Myers’ top line is likely to have gained from an increase in growth portfolio sales. The growth portfolio primarily comprises sales from drugs like Opdivo, Opdivo Qvantig, Orencia, Yervoy, Reblozyl, Camzyos, Breyanzi, Opdualag, Zeposia, Abecma, Sotyku, Krazati and Cobenfy.

However, as in the previous quarters, total quarterly revenues are likely to have been adversely impacted by a decline in sales from the legacy portfolio, which includes Eliquis, Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel and Abraxane, among others.

BMY is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, before market open.

Biogen

Biogen’s performance has been mixed, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while missing on the remaining occasion. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 19.77%, on average. In the last reported quarter, BIIB delivered a positive earnings surprise of 23.60%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $2.25 billion and $2.96 per share, respectively.

BIIB has an Earnings ESP of -1.25% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

In the first quarter of 2026, lower sales of Biogen’s multiple sclerosis (“MS”) drugs, excluding Vumerity, are likely to have been offset by sequential revenue growth of new products. Also, sales of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, are likely to have declined in the first quarter due to lower revenues in international markets.

Sales of Biogen’s newly launched drug Skyclarys for Friedreich’s ataxia are likely to have continued to improve sequentially, backed by demand growth and geographic expansion in outside U.S. markets.

BIIB will report first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, before market open.

Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Biogen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Biogen Inc. Quote

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