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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.8 billion, implying a decrease of 5.7% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus earnings estimate of $3.55 per share has been revised upward by 1.7% over the past seven days, but still suggests a 21.8% decline from the year-ago reported figure.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FANG’s revenues is pegged at $16.4 billion, implying an improvement of 9.3% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 earnings per share stands at $19.02, indicating a surge of 42.3%.
FANG's Earnings Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Permian-focused oil and gas producer delivered an earnings surprise of -7.5%. Diamondback Energy’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other, with the average surprise being 3.3%.
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Diamondback is likely to beat estimates in the first quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: FANG has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $3.55 per share each.
Zacks Rank: Diamondback Energy currently carries a Zacks Rank of 1, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.
Diamondback Energy’s production setup looked supportive for first-quarter 2026. The fourth-quarter 2025 oil output was strong at 512.8 thousand barrels of oil per day (MBbl/d), while the 2026 plan calls for around 505 MBbl/d, about 2% higher than 2025’s 497.2 MBbl/d. Execution also improved, with average lateral length expected to have risen to around 12,900 feet, while Midland Basin drilling costs are guided to some $550 per foot, down 2% year over year. Faster completions should have helped sustain volumes with tighter capital control. Consequently, our expectation for FANG’s average first-quarter crude volume is pegged at 507.9 MBbl/d, up nearly 7% from the year-ago quarter’s level of 475.9 MBbl/d.
Price realization could have helped cushion first-quarter earnings, too. Diamondback assumes greater than 98% WTI oil realizations in its 2026 free-cash-flow scenarios, with NGLs at $15 per barrel and gas at 75 cents per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). The company also had meaningful hedging in place: 316,000 barrels per day of first-quarter oil puts and gas collars covering significant volumes. That mix is likely to have supported cash flow stability while preserving upside.
However, on a bearish note, there are some issues with Diamondback Energy’s Barnett portfolio. Full-field development is expected to begin only in the second half of 2026, while current Barnett costs are still around $1,000 per foot, well above the Midland core at roughly $510-$520 per foot. Management sees returns becoming competitive only if Barnett costs fall toward $800 a feet. The play is also gassier, with the Barnett oil mix at about 67% over 12 months compared with 75-80% for core zones, which could have weighed on near-term margins.
A Word on FANG’s Peers: PR and APA
Permian Resources (PR - Free Report) , a pure-play operator in the Delaware basin, enters the upcoming results with a clean operating story. The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 oil production reached 188.6 MBbl/d, while total output was 401.5 thousand barrels of oil-equivalent per day (MBOE/d), and adjusted free cash flow was $403 million. For 2026, Permian Resources guides 189 MBbl/d of oil and 415 MBOE/d total production, with $1.85 billion of capex, delivering roughly 5% higher production on $120 million lower spending. PR also improved gas marketing, cutting Waha exposure to about 10% of 2026 gas volumes and moving expected realizations from a 40-cent discount to a 50-cent premium versus Waha.
Meanwhile, another US upstream company APA Corporation’s (APA - Free Report) upcoming results will likely be judged on the impact of weak U.S. gas pricing, realized commodity prices and expense trends. In its first-quarter 2026 supplemental update, APA said it curtailed approximately 88 thousand cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of U.S. natural gas production and 6,800 barrels per day of U.S. natural gas liquids production in response to weak or negative Waha hub prices. The company estimated average realized prices of $72.50 per barrel for U.S. oil and negative 35 cents per Mcf for U.S. natural gas, while international realizations were stronger at $85.70 per barrel for oil and $4.60 per Mcf for natural gas. APA also reported $115 million of first-quarter G&A expense, including about $25 million of higher-than-expected stock-based compensation.
FANG Price Performance & Stock Valuation
Shares of Diamondback Energy have gone up 45.6% in the past six-month period compared with the broader Zacks Energy sector’s growth of more than 33%. Shares of Permian Resources have gained 71.5%, while APA stock has surged more than 80%.
6-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio — FANG is trading at a premium compared to the industry average. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 8.19.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Should You Play Diamondback Energy Pre-Q1 Earnings?
Diamondback Energy’s top rank is supported by its scale, low-cost Permian operations and strong cash-flow profile ahead of its earnings release. The company’s large production base, efficient cost structure and expanded inventory following acquisitions provide solid long-term visibility. While near-term estimates point to some year-over-year pressure, upward EPS revisions and strong full-year 2026 growth expectations signal improving sentiment. Diamondback also benefits from disciplined capital spending, meaningful shareholder returns and commodity-price leverage. Supportive oil volumes, better drilling efficiency and hedging should aid stability, although Barnett cost and mix issues remain watch points. Overall, its operational strength and earnings outlook justify the favorable outlook.
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Image: Zacks
Is Diamondback Stock Worth Buying Before Q1 Earnings Release?
Key Takeaways
Diamondback Energy (FANG - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 4, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.8 billion, implying a decrease of 5.7% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus earnings estimate of $3.55 per share has been revised upward by 1.7% over the past seven days, but still suggests a 21.8% decline from the year-ago reported figure.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FANG’s revenues is pegged at $16.4 billion, implying an improvement of 9.3% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 earnings per share stands at $19.02, indicating a surge of 42.3%.
FANG's Earnings Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Permian-focused oil and gas producer delivered an earnings surprise of -7.5%. Diamondback Energy’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other, with the average surprise being 3.3%.
Diamondback Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Diamondback Energy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Diamondback Energy, Inc. Quote
Q1 Earnings Whispers for Diamondback Energy
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Diamondback is likely to beat estimates in the first quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: FANG has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $3.55 per share each.
Zacks Rank: Diamondback Energy currently carries a Zacks Rank of 1, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping FANG’s Upcoming Q1 Results
Diamondback Energy’s production setup looked supportive for first-quarter 2026. The fourth-quarter 2025 oil output was strong at 512.8 thousand barrels of oil per day (MBbl/d), while the 2026 plan calls for around 505 MBbl/d, about 2% higher than 2025’s 497.2 MBbl/d. Execution also improved, with average lateral length expected to have risen to around 12,900 feet, while Midland Basin drilling costs are guided to some $550 per foot, down 2% year over year. Faster completions should have helped sustain volumes with tighter capital control. Consequently, our expectation for FANG’s average first-quarter crude volume is pegged at 507.9 MBbl/d, up nearly 7% from the year-ago quarter’s level of 475.9 MBbl/d.
Price realization could have helped cushion first-quarter earnings, too. Diamondback assumes greater than 98% WTI oil realizations in its 2026 free-cash-flow scenarios, with NGLs at $15 per barrel and gas at 75 cents per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). The company also had meaningful hedging in place: 316,000 barrels per day of first-quarter oil puts and gas collars covering significant volumes. That mix is likely to have supported cash flow stability while preserving upside.
However, on a bearish note, there are some issues with Diamondback Energy’s Barnett portfolio. Full-field development is expected to begin only in the second half of 2026, while current Barnett costs are still around $1,000 per foot, well above the Midland core at roughly $510-$520 per foot. Management sees returns becoming competitive only if Barnett costs fall toward $800 a feet. The play is also gassier, with the Barnett oil mix at about 67% over 12 months compared with 75-80% for core zones, which could have weighed on near-term margins.
A Word on FANG’s Peers: PR and APA
Permian Resources (PR - Free Report) , a pure-play operator in the Delaware basin, enters the upcoming results with a clean operating story. The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 oil production reached 188.6 MBbl/d, while total output was 401.5 thousand barrels of oil-equivalent per day (MBOE/d), and adjusted free cash flow was $403 million. For 2026, Permian Resources guides 189 MBbl/d of oil and 415 MBOE/d total production, with $1.85 billion of capex, delivering roughly 5% higher production on $120 million lower spending. PR also improved gas marketing, cutting Waha exposure to about 10% of 2026 gas volumes and moving expected realizations from a 40-cent discount to a 50-cent premium versus Waha.
Meanwhile, another US upstream company APA Corporation’s (APA - Free Report) upcoming results will likely be judged on the impact of weak U.S. gas pricing, realized commodity prices and expense trends. In its first-quarter 2026 supplemental update, APA said it curtailed approximately 88 thousand cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of U.S. natural gas production and 6,800 barrels per day of U.S. natural gas liquids production in response to weak or negative Waha hub prices. The company estimated average realized prices of $72.50 per barrel for U.S. oil and negative 35 cents per Mcf for U.S. natural gas, while international realizations were stronger at $85.70 per barrel for oil and $4.60 per Mcf for natural gas. APA also reported $115 million of first-quarter G&A expense, including about $25 million of higher-than-expected stock-based compensation.
FANG Price Performance & Stock Valuation
Shares of Diamondback Energy have gone up 45.6% in the past six-month period compared with the broader Zacks Energy sector’s growth of more than 33%. Shares of Permian Resources have gained 71.5%, while APA stock has surged more than 80%.
6-Month Price Performance
From a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio — FANG is trading at a premium compared to the industry average. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 8.19.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Should You Play Diamondback Energy Pre-Q1 Earnings?
Diamondback Energy’s top rank is supported by its scale, low-cost Permian operations and strong cash-flow profile ahead of its earnings release. The company’s large production base, efficient cost structure and expanded inventory following acquisitions provide solid long-term visibility. While near-term estimates point to some year-over-year pressure, upward EPS revisions and strong full-year 2026 growth expectations signal improving sentiment. Diamondback also benefits from disciplined capital spending, meaningful shareholder returns and commodity-price leverage. Supportive oil volumes, better drilling efficiency and hedging should aid stability, although Barnett cost and mix issues remain watch points. Overall, its operational strength and earnings outlook justify the favorable outlook.