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Coty's Q3 Earnings on Deck: Key Factors You Should Understand
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Key Takeaways
Coty is expected to report Q3 revenues of $1.28B, down 1.1% year over year, with earnings at break-even.
COTY faces weak Consumer Beauty demand and high promotions, with gross margin down 200-300 bps.
Coty's "Coty. Curated." strategy and Prestige fragrance growth may help stabilize performance.
Coty Inc. (COTY - Free Report) is likely to register a decline in the top and bottom line when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on May 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.28 billion, indicating a decrease of 1.1% from the prior-year reported figure.
The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at break-even, implying a decrease from 1 cent per share in the year-ago quarter. COTY delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 180.6%, on average.
Coty is expected to deliver pressured top-line performance in the fiscal third quarter, reflecting continued softness in Consumer Beauty and a still-challenging operating backdrop. On its second-quarter earnings call, management guided for like-for-like revenues to decline a mid-single-digit percentage in the fiscal third quarter, primarily due to weakening Consumer Beauty trends and a continued sell-out gap compared with the broader cosmetics category.
The operating environment remains mixed heading into the to-be-reported quarter. While the Prestige fragrance category is expected to grow at a low-to-mid-single-digit rate in the fiscal third quarter, consistent with recent trends, elevated promotional intensity across key markets is likely to have weighed on Coty’s net revenues and gross margins. Additionally, although retailer destocking headwinds have largely subsided, high promotional activity and competitive pressures continue to constrain performance.
On the margin front, Coty anticipates continued pressure, with gross margin projected to decline 200-300 basis points year over year in the fiscal third quarter. This, along with higher fixed-cost absorption and sustained investments in advertising and consumer promotion to support market share recovery, is expected to have weighed on profitability. The company projects adjusted EBITDA in the range of $100-$110 million for the fiscal third quarter.
That said, Coty’s strategic initiatives are likely to have provided some underlying support. The company has begun implementing its “Coty. Curated.” framework, emphasizing streamlined brand investments, sharper execution and a stronger focus on core franchises. Strength across key Prestige brands, continued fragrance innovation and ongoing efforts to improve market execution are expected to have lent some stability to performance, even as the company navigates a challenging macro and competitive environment.
Earnings Whispers for COTY Stock
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Coty this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Coty has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of -438.36%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Some Stocks With a Favorable Combination
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BJ's Wholesale Club’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $1.05, which implies 7.9% decline year over year. The consensus estimate for the quarterly revenues is pinned at $5.39 billion, which indicates 4.6% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. BJ delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.4%, on average.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus mark for the upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $755.2 million, which indicates an increase of 129.4% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly earnings per share of 29 cents implies growth of 61.1% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. CELH delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1%, on average.
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus estimate for the quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.91 billion, which indicates a decrease of 1.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kraft Heinz’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 50 cents, which implies a 19.4% decrease year over year. KHC delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 7%, on average.
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Coty's Q3 Earnings on Deck: Key Factors You Should Understand
Key Takeaways
Coty Inc. (COTY - Free Report) is likely to register a decline in the top and bottom line when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on May 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.28 billion, indicating a decrease of 1.1% from the prior-year reported figure.
The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at break-even, implying a decrease from 1 cent per share in the year-ago quarter. COTY delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 180.6%, on average.
Coty Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Coty price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Coty Quote
Things to Know About COTY’s Upcoming Results
Coty is expected to deliver pressured top-line performance in the fiscal third quarter, reflecting continued softness in Consumer Beauty and a still-challenging operating backdrop. On its second-quarter earnings call, management guided for like-for-like revenues to decline a mid-single-digit percentage in the fiscal third quarter, primarily due to weakening Consumer Beauty trends and a continued sell-out gap compared with the broader cosmetics category.
The operating environment remains mixed heading into the to-be-reported quarter. While the Prestige fragrance category is expected to grow at a low-to-mid-single-digit rate in the fiscal third quarter, consistent with recent trends, elevated promotional intensity across key markets is likely to have weighed on Coty’s net revenues and gross margins. Additionally, although retailer destocking headwinds have largely subsided, high promotional activity and competitive pressures continue to constrain performance.
On the margin front, Coty anticipates continued pressure, with gross margin projected to decline 200-300 basis points year over year in the fiscal third quarter. This, along with higher fixed-cost absorption and sustained investments in advertising and consumer promotion to support market share recovery, is expected to have weighed on profitability. The company projects adjusted EBITDA in the range of $100-$110 million for the fiscal third quarter.
That said, Coty’s strategic initiatives are likely to have provided some underlying support. The company has begun implementing its “Coty. Curated.” framework, emphasizing streamlined brand investments, sharper execution and a stronger focus on core franchises. Strength across key Prestige brands, continued fragrance innovation and ongoing efforts to improve market execution are expected to have lent some stability to performance, even as the company navigates a challenging macro and competitive environment.
Earnings Whispers for COTY Stock
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Coty this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.
Coty has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of -438.36%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Some Stocks With a Favorable Combination
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BJ's Wholesale Club’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $1.05, which implies 7.9% decline year over year. The consensus estimate for the quarterly revenues is pinned at $5.39 billion, which indicates 4.6% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. BJ delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.4%, on average.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus mark for the upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $755.2 million, which indicates an increase of 129.4% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly earnings per share of 29 cents implies growth of 61.1% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. CELH delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1%, on average.
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus estimate for the quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.91 billion, which indicates a decrease of 1.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kraft Heinz’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 50 cents, which implies a 19.4% decrease year over year. KHC delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 7%, on average.