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Pagaya Slated to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Pagaya is set to report 1Q26 earnings on May 7, with revenues expected to rise y/y but earnings to decline.
PGY projects $315-$335M in revenues and $2.5-$2.7B in network volume, signaling continued growth.
Pagaya expects stronger fees and EBITDA up to $95M, supported by loan and auto segment gains.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY - Free Report) is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 7, before market open. While the company’s quarterly revenues are expected to have improved year over year, earnings are likely to have declined.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, PGY’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by higher total revenues and other income. Network volume growth was another positive.
Pagaya has a decent earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 34.1%.
PGY’s growth strategy focuses on expanding products to boost partner customer value, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships and adding new enterprise lending partners, especially large U.S. banks and auto captives. Supported by this, total revenues and other income are anticipated to have increased in the first quarter. Management expects first-quarter 2026 total revenues and other income between $315 million and $335 million.
Supported by improved economics in the company’s personal loan and auto verticals, revenues from fees are expected to have improved. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is $308 million, indicating an 8.8% year-over-year rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for network volume of $2.62 billion implies growth of 9.2% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Also, the company expects first-quarter 2026 network volume between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion.
Management expects adjusted EBITDA between $80 million and $95 million. The company expects GAAP net income between $15 million and $35 million.
What Our Model Unveils for Pagaya
Per our proven model, it cannot be conclusively predicted whether Pagaya will be able to beat earnings estimates this time. This is because it does not have the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.
Pagaya has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $320.5 million, which implies a 10.5% year-over-year improvement.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for the company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been unchanged at 48 cents. The estimate indicates a decline of 30.4% from the prior-year quarter.
Q1 Performance of PGY’s Peers
LendingTree (TREE - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted net income per share of $1.66, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.49. The figure compares favorably with 99 cents in the prior-year quarter.
TREE’s results were driven by a rise in revenues. An increase in adjusted EBITDA was an added positive. However, a rise in total cost acted as a spoilsport.
LendingClub Corporation’s (LC - Free Report) first-quarter 2026 earnings of 44 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents. The bottom line increased significantly from 10 cents per share in the prior-year quarter.
LC’s results were primarily aided by higher net interest income and non-interest income, along with lower provisions. However, an increase in expenses was the undermining factor.
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Pagaya Slated to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY - Free Report) is scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 7, before market open. While the company’s quarterly revenues are expected to have improved year over year, earnings are likely to have declined.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, PGY’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by higher total revenues and other income. Network volume growth was another positive.
Pagaya has a decent earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 34.1%.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Quote
Key Q1 Estimates for Pagaya
PGY’s growth strategy focuses on expanding products to boost partner customer value, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships and adding new enterprise lending partners, especially large U.S. banks and auto captives. Supported by this, total revenues and other income are anticipated to have increased in the first quarter. Management expects first-quarter 2026 total revenues and other income between $315 million and $335 million.
Supported by improved economics in the company’s personal loan and auto verticals, revenues from fees are expected to have improved. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is $308 million, indicating an 8.8% year-over-year rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for network volume of $2.62 billion implies growth of 9.2% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Also, the company expects first-quarter 2026 network volume between $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion.
Management expects adjusted EBITDA between $80 million and $95 million. The company expects GAAP net income between $15 million and $35 million.
What Our Model Unveils for Pagaya
Per our proven model, it cannot be conclusively predicted whether Pagaya will be able to beat earnings estimates this time. This is because it does not have the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.
Pagaya has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
PGY carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Q1 Earnings & Sales Projections for PGY
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $320.5 million, which implies a 10.5% year-over-year improvement.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for the company’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been unchanged at 48 cents. The estimate indicates a decline of 30.4% from the prior-year quarter.
Q1 Performance of PGY’s Peers
LendingTree (TREE - Free Report) reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted net income per share of $1.66, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.49. The figure compares favorably with 99 cents in the prior-year quarter.
TREE’s results were driven by a rise in revenues. An increase in adjusted EBITDA was an added positive. However, a rise in total cost acted as a spoilsport.
LendingClub Corporation’s (LC - Free Report) first-quarter 2026 earnings of 44 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents. The bottom line increased significantly from 10 cents per share in the prior-year quarter.
LC’s results were primarily aided by higher net interest income and non-interest income, along with lower provisions. However, an increase in expenses was the undermining factor.