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MOS Q1 Earnings Lag Estimates on Higher Input Costs, Sales Up Y/Y
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Key Takeaways
MOS Q1 adjusted EPS fell 90% Y/Y to 5 cents, missing estimates despite higher sales.
Mosaic's phosphate margin dropped to $2 per ton as raw material costs surged.
MOS cut 2026 capex guidance by $250M while reaffirming potash production outlook.
The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) posted first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 5 cents per share, down 89.8% from 49 cents a year ago. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 20 cents by 75%.
Net sales rose 14.4% year over year to $2,998 million and beat the consensus estimate of $2,749.3 million by 9%. Results reflected volatile fertilizer and raw material markets.
The Mosaic Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
MOS’ Phosphate segment generated net sales of $1.4 billion in the quarter, up from $1.1 billion a year ago. Sales volumes increased to 1.9 million tons from 1.5 million tons, in line with our estimate of 1.9 million tons. Gross margin fell sharply to $2 per ton from $111 per ton, as higher raw material costs overwhelmed the benefit of better volumes. The average DAP selling price was $668 per ton versus $623 per ton in the year-ago quarter.
The Potash segment delivered net sales of $667 million, up from $570 million a year ago. Sales volumes were 2.2 million tons compared with 2.1 million tons in the prior-year period. The figure beat our estimate of 2.1 million tons. Gross margin improved to $88 per ton from $80 per ton. Higher realized prices more than offset a higher cost environment. The average MOP selling price rose to $265 per ton from $223 per ton.
Mosaic Fertilizantes posted net sales of $937 million, essentially flat with $934 million a year ago. Sales volumes declined to 1.6 million tons from 1.8 million tons, while gross margin compressed to $22 per ton from $69 per ton. The average finished product selling price increased to $527 per ton from $452 per ton. The company said the decision to idle operations at Araxa and Patrocinio resulted in charges totaling $442 million, which drove the reported loss in the quarter. The ongoing credit constraints in Brazil were also flagged as a headwind to distribution margins.
MOS' Financials
Mosaic ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $281.8 million, compared with $276.6 million at the end of 2025. Long-term debt (net of current maturities) was $4,271.1 million versus $4,250.9 million at the end of 2025.
Cash flow from operating activities was $104.2 million in the first quarter, up from $42.9 million a year ago, aided by improved working capital dynamics. Capital expenditures were $356.8 million, and free cash flow was negative $252.6 million, consistent with typical first-quarter seasonality.
Mosaic paid a regular dividend of 22 cents per share in the quarter.
MOS 2026 Outlook
For 2026, Mosaic reduced capital expenditure guidance by $250 million to $1.25 billion and maintained its potash production outlook of about 9 million tons. For the second quarter, phosphate sales volumes are expected to be 1.4 to 1.7 million tons with DAP prices of $760 to $780 per ton, while potash sales volumes are projected to be 1.9 to 2.1 million tons with MOP prices of $260 to $280 per ton. Management also reaffirmed key annual guideposts, including SG&A expense of $520 to $540 million, net interest expense of $200 to $220 million, and cash taxes of $275 to $325 million.
MOS’ Price Performance
Mosaic’s shares have lost 32.7% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 10.3% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MOS’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space are Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. (IDR - Free Report) , NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB - Free Report) and Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN - Free Report) .
Idaho is expected to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 14. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 43 cents per share, indicating 258.33% year-over-year growth. IDR sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
NioCorp is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 14. The consensus estimate for NB’s loss per share is pegged at 2 cents, indicating 83.33% year-over-year growth. NB presently carries a Zacks Rank #1.
Hawkins is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on May 13. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HWKN’s first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 77 cents. HWKN carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present.
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MOS Q1 Earnings Lag Estimates on Higher Input Costs, Sales Up Y/Y
Key Takeaways
The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) posted first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 5 cents per share, down 89.8% from 49 cents a year ago. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 20 cents by 75%.
Net sales rose 14.4% year over year to $2,998 million and beat the consensus estimate of $2,749.3 million by 9%. Results reflected volatile fertilizer and raw material markets.
The Mosaic Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The Mosaic Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Mosaic Company Quote
MOS' Segment Highlights
MOS’ Phosphate segment generated net sales of $1.4 billion in the quarter, up from $1.1 billion a year ago. Sales volumes increased to 1.9 million tons from 1.5 million tons, in line with our estimate of 1.9 million tons. Gross margin fell sharply to $2 per ton from $111 per ton, as higher raw material costs overwhelmed the benefit of better volumes. The average DAP selling price was $668 per ton versus $623 per ton in the year-ago quarter.
The Potash segment delivered net sales of $667 million, up from $570 million a year ago. Sales volumes were 2.2 million tons compared with 2.1 million tons in the prior-year period. The figure beat our estimate of 2.1 million tons. Gross margin improved to $88 per ton from $80 per ton. Higher realized prices more than offset a higher cost environment. The average MOP selling price rose to $265 per ton from $223 per ton.
Mosaic Fertilizantes posted net sales of $937 million, essentially flat with $934 million a year ago. Sales volumes declined to 1.6 million tons from 1.8 million tons, while gross margin compressed to $22 per ton from $69 per ton. The average finished product selling price increased to $527 per ton from $452 per ton. The company said the decision to idle operations at Araxa and Patrocinio resulted in charges totaling $442 million, which drove the reported loss in the quarter. The ongoing credit constraints in Brazil were also flagged as a headwind to distribution margins.
MOS' Financials
Mosaic ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $281.8 million, compared with $276.6 million at the end of 2025. Long-term debt (net of current maturities) was $4,271.1 million versus $4,250.9 million at the end of 2025.
Cash flow from operating activities was $104.2 million in the first quarter, up from $42.9 million a year ago, aided by improved working capital dynamics. Capital expenditures were $356.8 million, and free cash flow was negative $252.6 million, consistent with typical first-quarter seasonality.
Mosaic paid a regular dividend of 22 cents per share in the quarter.
MOS 2026 Outlook
For 2026, Mosaic reduced capital expenditure guidance by $250 million to $1.25 billion and maintained its potash production outlook of about 9 million tons. For the second quarter, phosphate sales volumes are expected to be 1.4 to 1.7 million tons with DAP prices of $760 to $780 per ton, while potash sales volumes are projected to be 1.9 to 2.1 million tons with MOP prices of $260 to $280 per ton. Management also reaffirmed key annual guideposts, including SG&A expense of $520 to $540 million, net interest expense of $200 to $220 million, and cash taxes of $275 to $325 million.
MOS’ Price Performance
Mosaic’s shares have lost 32.7% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 10.3% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MOS’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks
MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space are Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. (IDR - Free Report) , NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB - Free Report) and Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN - Free Report) .
Idaho is expected to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 14. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 43 cents per share, indicating 258.33% year-over-year growth. IDR sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
NioCorp is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 14. The consensus estimate for NB’s loss per share is pegged at 2 cents, indicating 83.33% year-over-year growth. NB presently carries a Zacks Rank #1.
Hawkins is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on May 13. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HWKN’s first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 77 cents. HWKN carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present.