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Here's Why Investors Should Stay Neutral on Humana Stock for Now
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Key Takeaways
HUM gained 23.7% in a year, outperforming the industry's 13.5% rise.
Humana's Medicare premiums, memberships and CenterWell growth boosted Q1 2026 premiums by 23.6%.
HUM faces rising medical costs, higher leverage and a forward P/E above the industry average.
Humana Inc. (HUM - Free Report) is well poised for growth, benefiting from increasing premiums, strategic acquisitions, an expanding value-based care platform, an aging population in the United States and solid cash generation capacity. HUM’s shares have gained 23.7% over the past year compared with the industry’s rise of 13.5%.
HUM — with a market cap of $36.7 billion — offers health insurance benefits through Health Maintenance Organization, Private Fee-For-Service and Preferred Provider Organization plans. It also provides specialty products such as dental, vision and other supplementary benefits.
Courtesy of solid prospects, HUM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Where Do Estimates for HUM Stand?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $9.02 per share. In the past seven days, it has witnessed one upward estimate revision against one in the opposite direction. Furthermore, the consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $162.6 billion for 2026, indicating a 25.3% year-over-year rise. It beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 3.8%.
Humana’s growth is being supported by strong momentum across its Medicare businesses, rising premiums and expanding healthcare services operations. Higher per-member Medicare Advantage and stand-alone PDP premiums, driven by improved CMS benchmark funding and increased Part D subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act, continue to strengthen revenue growth. Membership expansion across Medicare Advantage plans, along with growth in CenterWell’s payor-agnostic client base, is also contributing to the company’s improving scale and market presence. Total premiums grew 23.6% year over year in the first quarter of 2026.
The company is focusing on disciplined pricing, clinical excellence and operational efficiency to strengthen margins and long-term profitability. Medicare Advantage pricing actions, stable benefit offerings and ongoing clinical excellence efforts are helping offset elevated medical cost trends and Star Ratings-related pressure.
Meanwhile, state-based contracts membership growth from new programs in Michigan, Illinois and South Carolina is adding further momentum to its expansion plans. In the first quarter of 2026, state-based contracts membership increased by approximately 50,000. Membership in state-based contracts is anticipated to witness an increase in the range of 25,000-100,000 in 2026.
Humana is further strengthening its long-term growth platform through CenterWell and strategic expansion initiatives. Growth in primary care, pharmacy and home health operations continues to support CenterWell’s performance, aided by acquisitions such as MaxHealth and The Villages Health. In the first quarter of 2026, CenterWell Senior Primary Care reported sequential growth of 110,500 patients, including about 59,000 patients and 54 centers tied to MaxHealth. Investments in automation, interoperability, AI-enabled systems and payment accuracy tools are helping streamline operations, improve care delivery and enhance the company’s integrated healthcare model.
HUM’s solid financial position also provides flexibility to support growth and shareholder returns. As of March 31, 2026, the company had cash, cash equivalents and investment securities of $22 billion. It has been returning excess capital to its shareholders in the past several years. It repurchased common shares in connection with employee stock plans for $107 million in the first quarter of 2026. It had a leftover share repurchase capacity of $2.7 billion as of April 28, 2026. It also paid a dividend of $107 million in the first quarter of 2026.
Key Concerns
Despite its strengths, there are challenges to monitor.
Humana is facing rising medical cost intensity, which is weighing on profitability. Total operating expenses have steadily increased as a share of revenues, reaching 95.6% in first-quarter 2026 from 93.7% a year ago, indicating limited operating leverage. Operating expenses rose 25.9% year over year in the first quarter of 2026. The company expects the benefit ratio for the insurance segment to be 92.75%, with a variability margin of plus or minus 25 basis points for 2026, indicating an increase from the 2025 level of 90.4%.
Humana is grappling with a debt-laden balance sheet, which induces an increase in interest expenses. This might put pressure on the company’s margins. As of March 31, 2026, long-term debt was $12.3 billion. The company’s net debt-to-capital of 29.2% exceeds the industry average of 21.1%, underscoring higher leverage. Also, its forward P/E of 27.34X is higher than the industry average of 17.25X.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BrightSpring Health Services’ current-year earnings of $1.64 per share has witnessed five upward revisions in the past 30 days against no movement in the opposite direction. BTSG beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 14.6%. The consensus estimate for current-year revenues is pegged at $15.1 billion, suggesting 16.6% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Globus Medical’s current-year earnings of $4.66 per share has witnessed three upward revisions in the past 30 days, against one movement in the opposite direction. GMED beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 26.3%. The consensus estimate for current-year revenues is pegged at $3.2 billion, suggesting 8.8% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Electromed’s current-year earnings of $1.20 per share has witnessed one upward revision in the past seven days, against no movement in the opposite direction. ELMD beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 20.1%. The consensus estimate for current-year revenues is pegged at $74 million, suggesting 15.6% year-over-year growth.
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Here's Why Investors Should Stay Neutral on Humana Stock for Now
Key Takeaways
Humana Inc. (HUM - Free Report) is well poised for growth, benefiting from increasing premiums, strategic acquisitions, an expanding value-based care platform, an aging population in the United States and solid cash generation capacity. HUM’s shares have gained 23.7% over the past year compared with the industry’s rise of 13.5%.
HUM — with a market cap of $36.7 billion — offers health insurance benefits through Health Maintenance Organization, Private Fee-For-Service and Preferred Provider Organization plans. It also provides specialty products such as dental, vision and other supplementary benefits.
Courtesy of solid prospects, HUM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Where Do Estimates for HUM Stand?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $9.02 per share. In the past seven days, it has witnessed one upward estimate revision against one in the opposite direction. Furthermore, the consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $162.6 billion for 2026, indicating a 25.3% year-over-year rise. It beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 3.8%.
Humana Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Humana Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Humana Inc. Quote
HUM’s Growth Drivers
Humana’s growth is being supported by strong momentum across its Medicare businesses, rising premiums and expanding healthcare services operations. Higher per-member Medicare Advantage and stand-alone PDP premiums, driven by improved CMS benchmark funding and increased Part D subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act, continue to strengthen revenue growth. Membership expansion across Medicare Advantage plans, along with growth in CenterWell’s payor-agnostic client base, is also contributing to the company’s improving scale and market presence. Total premiums grew 23.6% year over year in the first quarter of 2026.
The company is focusing on disciplined pricing, clinical excellence and operational efficiency to strengthen margins and long-term profitability. Medicare Advantage pricing actions, stable benefit offerings and ongoing clinical excellence efforts are helping offset elevated medical cost trends and Star Ratings-related pressure.
Meanwhile, state-based contracts membership growth from new programs in Michigan, Illinois and South Carolina is adding further momentum to its expansion plans. In the first quarter of 2026, state-based contracts membership increased by approximately 50,000. Membership in state-based contracts is anticipated to witness an increase in the range of 25,000-100,000 in 2026.
Humana is further strengthening its long-term growth platform through CenterWell and strategic expansion initiatives. Growth in primary care, pharmacy and home health operations continues to support CenterWell’s performance, aided by acquisitions such as MaxHealth and The Villages Health. In the first quarter of 2026, CenterWell Senior Primary Care reported sequential growth of 110,500 patients, including about 59,000 patients and 54 centers tied to MaxHealth. Investments in automation, interoperability, AI-enabled systems and payment accuracy tools are helping streamline operations, improve care delivery and enhance the company’s integrated healthcare model.
HUM’s solid financial position also provides flexibility to support growth and shareholder returns. As of March 31, 2026, the company had cash, cash equivalents and investment securities of $22 billion. It has been returning excess capital to its shareholders in the past several years. It repurchased common shares in connection with employee stock plans for $107 million in the first quarter of 2026. It had a leftover share repurchase capacity of $2.7 billion as of April 28, 2026. It also paid a dividend of $107 million in the first quarter of 2026.
Key Concerns
Despite its strengths, there are challenges to monitor.
Humana is facing rising medical cost intensity, which is weighing on profitability. Total operating expenses have steadily increased as a share of revenues, reaching 95.6% in first-quarter 2026 from 93.7% a year ago, indicating limited operating leverage. Operating expenses rose 25.9% year over year in the first quarter of 2026. The company expects the benefit ratio for the insurance segment to be 92.75%, with a variability margin of plus or minus 25 basis points for 2026, indicating an increase from the 2025 level of 90.4%.
Humana is grappling with a debt-laden balance sheet, which induces an increase in interest expenses. This might put pressure on the company’s margins. As of March 31, 2026, long-term debt was $12.3 billion. The company’s net debt-to-capital of 29.2% exceeds the industry average of 21.1%, underscoring higher leverage. Also, its forward P/E of 27.34X is higher than the industry average of 17.25X.
Stocks to Consider
Some top-ranked stocks in the Medical space are BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG - Free Report) , Globus Medical, Inc. (GMED - Free Report) and Electromed, Inc. (ELMD - Free Report) , each currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BrightSpring Health Services’ current-year earnings of $1.64 per share has witnessed five upward revisions in the past 30 days against no movement in the opposite direction. BTSG beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 14.6%. The consensus estimate for current-year revenues is pegged at $15.1 billion, suggesting 16.6% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Globus Medical’s current-year earnings of $4.66 per share has witnessed three upward revisions in the past 30 days, against one movement in the opposite direction. GMED beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 26.3%. The consensus estimate for current-year revenues is pegged at $3.2 billion, suggesting 8.8% year-over-year growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Electromed’s current-year earnings of $1.20 per share has witnessed one upward revision in the past seven days, against no movement in the opposite direction. ELMD beat earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 20.1%. The consensus estimate for current-year revenues is pegged at $74 million, suggesting 15.6% year-over-year growth.