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Brown-Forman Q4 Earnings Around the Corner: Is a Beat Likely?
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Key Takeaways
Brown-Forman is navigating soft consumer demand, lower volumes and a fiercely competitive spirits market.
BF.B faces portfolio headwinds from Finlandia/Sonoma-Cutrer exits and weak Jack Daniel's, Herradura and Honey.
BF.B leans on pricing discipline, premiumization and Gin Mare/Diplomatico plus Jack Daniel's Coca-Cola RTD.
Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on June 4. The alcoholic beverage bigwig’s earnings are expected to have increased year over year in the quarter under review. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $877 million, indicating a decline of 1.9% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 33 cents per share, suggesting a rise of 6.5% from the year-ago period’s reported number. Earnings estimates for the fiscal fourth quarter have moved down by a penny in the past seven days.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20.8%. In the trailing four quarters, BF.B delivered an earnings surprise of 0.5%, on average.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Brown-Forman this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Brown-Forman has an Earnings ESP of +4.55% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Key Factors Likely to Affect BF.B’s Q4 Results
Brown-Forman has been navigating a difficult operating backdrop, marked by geopolitical uncertainty, soft global macroeconomic conditions and a highly competitive spirits market. Consumer demand has remained muted across key markets, as inflationary pressures and cautious discretionary spending continue to weigh on premium alcohol purchases. These factors are expected to have hurt its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 performance, with the company witnessing lower volumes across several brands and regions.
The company’s results have also been pressured by portfolio-related headwinds, including the absence of Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer, the conclusion of the Korbel relationship and the lack of benefits from the prior-year Sonoma-Cutrer transition services agreement. Weaknesses in Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Herradura and Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey are expected to have further weighed on sales trends.
Margin performance remains under pressure from inflation in input costs, reduced production levels and an unfavorable price mix. Currency headwinds, tariff-related uncertainty and elevated brand investments are additional concerns likely to be reflected in the to-be-reported quarter. Management had earlier indicated that organic operating expenses would continue to include investments behind brands, which may limit near-term earnings leverage.
However, Brown-Forman’s premiumization, pricing discipline, revenue-growth management and global expansion initiatives appear encouraging. Its portfolio evolution strategy is also gaining traction, supported by innovation and higher-margin offerings.
Jack Daniel’s & Coca-Cola RTD remains a notable portfolio addition, expanding the company’s presence in the fast-growing ready-to-drink category. Meanwhile, the integration of super-premium brands Gin Mare and Diplomático enhanced Brown-Forman’s exposure to premium spirits and broadened its Rest of Portfolio category.
Emerging markets remain a key bright spot, supported by favorable demographic trends, rising disposable income and growing demand for premium spirits. These markets, along with continued portfolio premiumization and global diversification, are likely to have provided some support to BF.B’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
BF.B’s Valuation Picture & Price Performance
From a valuation perspective, Brown-Forman’s shares trade at a discount relative to the industry benchmarks. It has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 15.28X, which is slightly lower than the Beverages - Alcohol industry’s average of 15.8X. The stock has a five-year high of 42.22X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The recent market movements show that BF.B shares have lost 10.1% in the past three months against the industry's 0.8% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Vita Coco Company (COCO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.51% and currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1. The company is likely to register growth in its top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COCO’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $204.7 million, which indicates a 21.3% rise from the prior-year quarter’s actual. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for Vita Coco’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 56 cents, indicating a 47.4% increase from that reported in the year-ago period. COCO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.7%, on average.
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.17% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register growth in its top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.4 billion, which indicates growth of 15.3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 59 cents, suggesting 13.5% year-over-year growth. MNST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.6%, on average.
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.48% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register increases in the top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share is pegged at $1.08, indicating 10.2% growth from the year-ago period’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for BUD’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $16.3 billion, which implies growth of 8.8% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. BUD has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.6%, on average.
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Brown-Forman Q4 Earnings Around the Corner: Is a Beat Likely?
Key Takeaways
Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on June 4. The alcoholic beverage bigwig’s earnings are expected to have increased year over year in the quarter under review. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $877 million, indicating a decline of 1.9% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 33 cents per share, suggesting a rise of 6.5% from the year-ago period’s reported number. Earnings estimates for the fiscal fourth quarter have moved down by a penny in the past seven days.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20.8%. In the trailing four quarters, BF.B delivered an earnings surprise of 0.5%, on average.
Brown-Forman Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Brown-Forman Corporation price-eps-surprise | Brown-Forman Corporation Quote
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Brown-Forman this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Brown-Forman has an Earnings ESP of +4.55% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Key Factors Likely to Affect BF.B’s Q4 Results
Brown-Forman has been navigating a difficult operating backdrop, marked by geopolitical uncertainty, soft global macroeconomic conditions and a highly competitive spirits market. Consumer demand has remained muted across key markets, as inflationary pressures and cautious discretionary spending continue to weigh on premium alcohol purchases. These factors are expected to have hurt its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 performance, with the company witnessing lower volumes across several brands and regions.
The company’s results have also been pressured by portfolio-related headwinds, including the absence of Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer, the conclusion of the Korbel relationship and the lack of benefits from the prior-year Sonoma-Cutrer transition services agreement. Weaknesses in Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Herradura and Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey are expected to have further weighed on sales trends.
Margin performance remains under pressure from inflation in input costs, reduced production levels and an unfavorable price mix. Currency headwinds, tariff-related uncertainty and elevated brand investments are additional concerns likely to be reflected in the to-be-reported quarter. Management had earlier indicated that organic operating expenses would continue to include investments behind brands, which may limit near-term earnings leverage.
However, Brown-Forman’s premiumization, pricing discipline, revenue-growth management and global expansion initiatives appear encouraging. Its portfolio evolution strategy is also gaining traction, supported by innovation and higher-margin offerings.
Jack Daniel’s & Coca-Cola RTD remains a notable portfolio addition, expanding the company’s presence in the fast-growing ready-to-drink category. Meanwhile, the integration of super-premium brands Gin Mare and Diplomático enhanced Brown-Forman’s exposure to premium spirits and broadened its Rest of Portfolio category.
Emerging markets remain a key bright spot, supported by favorable demographic trends, rising disposable income and growing demand for premium spirits. These markets, along with continued portfolio premiumization and global diversification, are likely to have provided some support to BF.B’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
BF.B’s Valuation Picture & Price Performance
From a valuation perspective, Brown-Forman’s shares trade at a discount relative to the industry benchmarks. It has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 15.28X, which is slightly lower than the Beverages - Alcohol industry’s average of 15.8X. The stock has a five-year high of 42.22X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The recent market movements show that BF.B shares have lost 10.1% in the past three months against the industry's 0.8% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Vita Coco Company (COCO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.51% and currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1. The company is likely to register growth in its top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COCO’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $204.7 million, which indicates a 21.3% rise from the prior-year quarter’s actual. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for Vita Coco’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 56 cents, indicating a 47.4% increase from that reported in the year-ago period. COCO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.7%, on average.
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.17% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register growth in its top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.4 billion, which indicates growth of 15.3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 59 cents, suggesting 13.5% year-over-year growth. MNST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.6%, on average.
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.48% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register increases in the top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share is pegged at $1.08, indicating 10.2% growth from the year-ago period’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for BUD’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $16.3 billion, which implies growth of 8.8% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. BUD has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.6%, on average.