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Why Is CF (CF) Down 1% Since Last Earnings Report?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for CF Industries (CF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CF due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
CF Industries' Q1 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates on Higher Prices
CF Industries reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of $3.98 per share, up from $1.85 in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings came in at $2.89 per share. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.43.
Net sales rose around 19.4% year over year to roughly $1.99 billion in the quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.77 billion.
In the first quarter, average selling prices increased from the same period in 2025, driven by strong global nitrogen demand and supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues. However, sales volumes were lower year over year, mainly due to lower urea ammonium nitrate and ammonium nitrate sales.
Segment Review
Net sales in the Ammonia segment increased 20.5% to $627 million in the reported quarter, beating our estimate of $505 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for ammonia from the year-ago period, mainly due to higher average selling prices, was partially offset by higher maintenance costs and higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the Granular Urea segment rose 34.4% year over year to $590 million, surpassing our estimate of $436.2 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for granular urea increased from the year-ago period, mainly driven by higher average selling prices, though partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the UAN segment rose around 24.04% year over year to $583 million, beating our estimate of $471.2 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for UAN increased from the previous year, mainly due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the AN segment declined around 42.6% year over year to $58 million, missing our estimate of $100.2 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for AN declined from the year-ago period, mainly due to costs related to the ongoing outage at the company’s Yazoo City, MS, complex, partially offset by higher average selling prices.
Financials
As of March 31, 2026, CF Industries’ cash and cash equivalents were $2.04 billion, up 3% year over year. Long-term debt was roughly $3.2 billion, flat year over year.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million in the reported quarter, down nearly 15,.4% year over year.
Outlook
Per CF, the global nitrogen market remains tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has significantly reduced ammonia and urea exports, while LNG supply disruptions have curtailed nitrogen production in import-dependent regions such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Higher European gas prices and ongoing supply disruptions in Russia and China are further supporting elevated global nitrogen prices. In North America, nitrogen availability remains stable with average inventory levels and expected U.S. corn plantings of around 95 million acres. India is projected to significantly increase urea imports in 2026 due to low inventories, reduced domestic production and supply shortfalls, although higher prices may weaken demand in some other import regions.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 52.28% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, CF has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise CF has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is CF (CF) Down 1% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for CF Industries (CF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CF due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
CF Industries' Q1 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates on Higher Prices
CF Industries reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of $3.98 per share, up from $1.85 in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings came in at $2.89 per share. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.43.
Net sales rose around 19.4% year over year to roughly $1.99 billion in the quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.77 billion.
In the first quarter, average selling prices increased from the same period in 2025, driven by strong global nitrogen demand and supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues. However, sales volumes were lower year over year, mainly due to lower urea ammonium nitrate and ammonium nitrate sales.
Segment Review
Net sales in the Ammonia segment increased 20.5% to $627 million in the reported quarter, beating our estimate of $505 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for ammonia from the year-ago period, mainly due to higher average selling prices, was partially offset by higher maintenance costs and higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the Granular Urea segment rose 34.4% year over year to $590 million, surpassing our estimate of $436.2 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for granular urea increased from the year-ago period, mainly driven by higher average selling prices, though partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the UAN segment rose around 24.04% year over year to $583 million, beating our estimate of $471.2 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for UAN increased from the previous year, mainly due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the AN segment declined around 42.6% year over year to $58 million, missing our estimate of $100.2 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for AN declined from the year-ago period, mainly due to costs related to the ongoing outage at the company’s Yazoo City, MS, complex, partially offset by higher average selling prices.
Financials
As of March 31, 2026, CF Industries’ cash and cash equivalents were $2.04 billion, up 3% year over year. Long-term debt was roughly $3.2 billion, flat year over year.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $496 million in the reported quarter, down nearly 15,.4% year over year.
Outlook
Per CF, the global nitrogen market remains tight in 2026 due to strong demand, geopolitical disruptions and constrained natural gas availability. The Middle East conflict has significantly reduced ammonia and urea exports, while LNG supply disruptions have curtailed nitrogen production in import-dependent regions such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Higher European gas prices and ongoing supply disruptions in Russia and China are further supporting elevated global nitrogen prices. In North America, nitrogen availability remains stable with average inventory levels and expected U.S. corn plantings of around 95 million acres. India is projected to significantly increase urea imports in 2026 due to low inventories, reduced domestic production and supply shortfalls, although higher prices may weaken demand in some other import regions.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 52.28% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, CF has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise CF has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.