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SJM guides fiscal 2027 net sales down 3%-4%, while adjusted EPS rises to $9.75-$10.25.
SJM expects mid-single-digit declines in green coffee costs, with the biggest retail profit lift starting Q2.
SJM: Uncrustables hit $1B sales; Sweet Baked Snacks profit rose 45% on pricing and lower ad spend.
The J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM - Free Report) used its fourth-quarter call to make a forward-looking case rather than dwell on headline results. Management pointed to stronger quarterly execution, but the main message was that fiscal 2027 will hinge on coffee cost relief, tighter portfolio management and disciplined capital deployment.
That framing mattered because Smucker is guiding to lower sales, even as adjusted earnings per share rise. Executives spent much of the call explaining why margin improvement, not top-line acceleration, is the clearest near-term objective.
SJM Sets a Margin-Led 2027 Agenda
CEO Mark Smucker said the company enters fiscal 2027 with momentum, but he also laid out a narrow set of priorities: organic volume growth on key platforms, better profitability and disciplined capital deployment.
That backdrop helps explain the outlook. Smucker expects fiscal 2027 net sales to decline 3% to 4%, while adjusted earnings per share are projected at $9.75 to $10.25, above fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $9.15.
The company’s fourth quarter supported that message, with net sales up 6% to $2,268.1 million and adjusted EPS up 20% to $2.77. Adjusted EPS topped the $2.65 estimate by 4.5%. However, revenues marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,270.9 million, with a negative surprise of 0.10%.
The J. M. Smucker Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Coffee was the clearest source of optimism on the call. Management said green coffee costs should decline at a mid-single-digit rate in fiscal 2027, creating room for profit recovery after a volatile inflationary stretch.
CFO Tucker Marshall said retail coffee profit should improve as moderating commodity costs flow through the business, with the largest benefit starting in the second quarter. Management also expects list price reductions to phase in only after lower-cost inventory reaches the system.
Analysts pressed on whether lower pricing should drive a stronger volume response. Mark Smucker answered with a notably cautious tone, saying the company is assuming prudent elasticities because consumers remain careful even as prices ease.
SJM Keeps Uncrustables at the Center
Uncrustables remained the company’s standout growth platform. Management said the brand reached $1 billion in annual sales and should post mid-single-digit growth in fiscal 2027, led primarily by volume and mix.
Executives also highlighted the transition to a fridge-friendly format across the full Uncrustables lineup by mid-summer. Mark Smucker said retailer response has been strong, while Marshall noted that away-from-home channels, now about one-quarter of the business, should grow faster than U.S. retail from a smaller base.
That helps offset weaker trends elsewhere in frozen handheld and spreads. On the call, management acknowledged pressure in spreads and said the total segment will be down year over year as Uncrustables’ strength is weighed against softer peanut butter and fruit spreads.
Hostess Gives SJM a Profit Test
Sweet Baked Snacks was another focal point because investors remain focused on the Hostess integration and turnaround path. The quarter showed a 5% sales decline for the segment, but profit rose 45% as pricing and lower marketing spend helped margins recover.
Marshall said fiscal 2027 segment profit should grow about 30%, supported by improved costs, SKU rationalization, and selective pricing, especially in donuts. Mark Smucker said the business has been stabilized operationally, though it will take time before top-line growth returns.
That exchange stood out in Q&A because management did not overpromise on demand. Instead, executives emphasized better visibility, cleaner execution in trade and production, and a continued focus on profit before renewed sales expansion.
Smucker Balances Pet Pressure and Cost Work
Pet food was a more mixed story. The fourth quarter delivered a 2% sales increase and an 18% profit increase, but management said inflation and higher brand spending will pressure profitability in fiscal 2027 despite volume momentum in Meow Mix and Milk-Bone.
Marshall described low-single-digit inflation outside coffee and tariffs, with pressure coming from packaging, ingredients, and transportation. He added that geopolitical tension in the Middle East remains part of the cost backdrop embedded in guidance.
To offset those costs, the company is leaning on its transformation office. Marshall said Smucker continues to target gross savings worth a couple of points of revenues annually, with current work centered on supply chain efficiency and technology.
SJM Sticks to Debt Reduction
Capital allocation was another important call theme. Smucker generated $1.16 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2026 and expects about $1.0 billion in fiscal 2027, while capital spending is projected at $325 million.
Marshall said the first call on that cash remains debt reduction. The company plans another $500 million of paydown this year to move leverage to roughly 3 times by year-end, after finishing fiscal 2026 near 3.8 times.
Management also said tariff refunds are being pursued but were excluded from guidance because the timing and scope remain uncertain. That left the overall tone disciplined and conservative, even as quarterly performance improved.
Smucker Leaves Investors With a Narrow Playbook
By the end of the call, management had drawn a clear map for fiscal 2027: let coffee margins recover, keep Uncrustables growing, improve Hostess profitability, and preserve balance-sheet flexibility. The emphasis was on control and sequencing rather than broad-based demand strength.
That posture made the call less about a single strong quarter and more about whether Smucker can convert cost relief and portfolio actions into steadier earnings growth while working through soft sales expectations.
Zacks Signals on SJM
SJM currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), with Value, Growth, and VGM Score of B and a Momentum Score of C. Under the Zacks framework, Style Scores are most useful when paired with top-ranked stocks, while a Rank #4 points to weaker estimate revision trends despite respectable style characteristics.
That makes the current setup mixed rather than outright supportive. The Style Scores suggest some favorable underlying traits, but the Zacks Rank remains the primary signal and can change as earnings estimate revisions move after the quarter.
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SJM Q4 Earnings Call Flags Coffee Relief, Sales Pressure
Key Takeaways
The J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM - Free Report) used its fourth-quarter call to make a forward-looking case rather than dwell on headline results. Management pointed to stronger quarterly execution, but the main message was that fiscal 2027 will hinge on coffee cost relief, tighter portfolio management and disciplined capital deployment.
That framing mattered because Smucker is guiding to lower sales, even as adjusted earnings per share rise. Executives spent much of the call explaining why margin improvement, not top-line acceleration, is the clearest near-term objective.
SJM Sets a Margin-Led 2027 Agenda
CEO Mark Smucker said the company enters fiscal 2027 with momentum, but he also laid out a narrow set of priorities: organic volume growth on key platforms, better profitability and disciplined capital deployment.
That backdrop helps explain the outlook. Smucker expects fiscal 2027 net sales to decline 3% to 4%, while adjusted earnings per share are projected at $9.75 to $10.25, above fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $9.15.
The company’s fourth quarter supported that message, with net sales up 6% to $2,268.1 million and adjusted EPS up 20% to $2.77. Adjusted EPS topped the $2.65 estimate by 4.5%. However, revenues marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,270.9 million, with a negative surprise of 0.10%.
The J. M. Smucker Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The J. M. Smucker Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The J. M. Smucker Company Quote
Smucker Sees Coffee Turning From Drag to Support
Coffee was the clearest source of optimism on the call. Management said green coffee costs should decline at a mid-single-digit rate in fiscal 2027, creating room for profit recovery after a volatile inflationary stretch.
CFO Tucker Marshall said retail coffee profit should improve as moderating commodity costs flow through the business, with the largest benefit starting in the second quarter. Management also expects list price reductions to phase in only after lower-cost inventory reaches the system.
Analysts pressed on whether lower pricing should drive a stronger volume response. Mark Smucker answered with a notably cautious tone, saying the company is assuming prudent elasticities because consumers remain careful even as prices ease.
SJM Keeps Uncrustables at the Center
Uncrustables remained the company’s standout growth platform. Management said the brand reached $1 billion in annual sales and should post mid-single-digit growth in fiscal 2027, led primarily by volume and mix.
Executives also highlighted the transition to a fridge-friendly format across the full Uncrustables lineup by mid-summer. Mark Smucker said retailer response has been strong, while Marshall noted that away-from-home channels, now about one-quarter of the business, should grow faster than U.S. retail from a smaller base.
That helps offset weaker trends elsewhere in frozen handheld and spreads. On the call, management acknowledged pressure in spreads and said the total segment will be down year over year as Uncrustables’ strength is weighed against softer peanut butter and fruit spreads.
Hostess Gives SJM a Profit Test
Sweet Baked Snacks was another focal point because investors remain focused on the Hostess integration and turnaround path. The quarter showed a 5% sales decline for the segment, but profit rose 45% as pricing and lower marketing spend helped margins recover.
Marshall said fiscal 2027 segment profit should grow about 30%, supported by improved costs, SKU rationalization, and selective pricing, especially in donuts. Mark Smucker said the business has been stabilized operationally, though it will take time before top-line growth returns.
That exchange stood out in Q&A because management did not overpromise on demand. Instead, executives emphasized better visibility, cleaner execution in trade and production, and a continued focus on profit before renewed sales expansion.
Smucker Balances Pet Pressure and Cost Work
Pet food was a more mixed story. The fourth quarter delivered a 2% sales increase and an 18% profit increase, but management said inflation and higher brand spending will pressure profitability in fiscal 2027 despite volume momentum in Meow Mix and Milk-Bone.
Marshall described low-single-digit inflation outside coffee and tariffs, with pressure coming from packaging, ingredients, and transportation. He added that geopolitical tension in the Middle East remains part of the cost backdrop embedded in guidance.
To offset those costs, the company is leaning on its transformation office. Marshall said Smucker continues to target gross savings worth a couple of points of revenues annually, with current work centered on supply chain efficiency and technology.
SJM Sticks to Debt Reduction
Capital allocation was another important call theme. Smucker generated $1.16 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2026 and expects about $1.0 billion in fiscal 2027, while capital spending is projected at $325 million.
Marshall said the first call on that cash remains debt reduction. The company plans another $500 million of paydown this year to move leverage to roughly 3 times by year-end, after finishing fiscal 2026 near 3.8 times.
Management also said tariff refunds are being pursued but were excluded from guidance because the timing and scope remain uncertain. That left the overall tone disciplined and conservative, even as quarterly performance improved.
Smucker Leaves Investors With a Narrow Playbook
By the end of the call, management had drawn a clear map for fiscal 2027: let coffee margins recover, keep Uncrustables growing, improve Hostess profitability, and preserve balance-sheet flexibility. The emphasis was on control and sequencing rather than broad-based demand strength.
That posture made the call less about a single strong quarter and more about whether Smucker can convert cost relief and portfolio actions into steadier earnings growth while working through soft sales expectations.
Zacks Signals on SJM
SJM currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), with Value, Growth, and VGM Score of B and a Momentum Score of C. Under the Zacks framework, Style Scores are most useful when paired with top-ranked stocks, while a Rank #4 points to weaker estimate revision trends despite respectable style characteristics.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
That makes the current setup mixed rather than outright supportive. The Style Scores suggest some favorable underlying traits, but the Zacks Rank remains the primary signal and can change as earnings estimate revisions move after the quarter.