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HOOD is routing event contracts through Rothera, its Susquehanna-built prediction-market exchange.
Robinhood caps prediction-market fees at $0.01 per contract, boosting appeal for active traders.
HOOD's World Cup contracts test demand; regulation, sports-betting scrutiny and liquidity remain risks.
Robinhood Markets’ (HOOD - Free Report) next revenue growth lever may not be another stock-trading feature. It will likely be Rothera, the prediction-market exchange built with Susquehanna International Group. After using outside venues such as Kalshi and ForecastEx, HOOD is now beginning to route event contracts through the infrastructure it effectively controls.
Prediction markets have become one of Robinhood’s fastest-growing products, with more than 12 billion event contracts traded in 2025 and more than 16 billion so far in 2026. By moving flow to Rothera, the company can potentially capture more economics, control listings, improve pricing and create a tighter in-app customer experience.
The lower fee structure strengthens this strategy. Robinhood’s new prediction-market pricing model charges commissions based on contract price and order size, with fees capped at 1 cent per contract. For active event-contract traders, this could make Rothera more attractive than competing platforms.
The World Cup gives Rothera its first major mainstream test. Robinhood has begun offering soccer event contracts through the platform, while Rothera’s early rollout showed demand in baseball markets, including more than $2 million in first-weekend trading volume. For Robinhood’s retail base, simple access matters: users do not need a separate crypto wallet, offshore account or niche prediction-market app.
Rothera also gives Robinhood strategic leverage against Kalshi. If meaningful flow migrates in-house, Kalshi could lose a key retail distribution channel, while HOOD gains control over fees, liquidity and product expansion.
Risks remain around regulation, sports-betting scrutiny and liquidity. But HOOD has the customer base, Susquehanna’s market-making expertise and a CFTC-regulated venue. This makes Rothera a potential backbone for Robinhood’s next major business line beyond stocks, options, crypto and futures.
How Diversified are HOOD’s Peers in Terms of Business?
Schwab is diversifying by expanding beyond traditional brokerage into wealth management, advisory services, banking, lending, retirement solutions and asset management. Its focus on fee-based advisory assets, net interest income and broader client financial services helps reduce dependence on trading commissions. Schwab’s diversified model supports steadier revenues, deeper client relationships and improved resilience across market cycles.
Interactive Brokers is diversifying by expanding beyond core brokerage into global market access, high-yield cash balances, securities lending, institutional services, retirement accounts and advisor solutions. Interactive Brokers’ growing interest income, international client base and technology-driven platform reduce reliance on trading commissions while supporting scalable growth across retail, professional and institutional investors.
So far this year, Robinhood shares have plunged 25.9% against the industry’s rally of 1.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HOOD shares are currently trading at a premium to the industry. The company has a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 8.44X compared with the industry average of 3.24X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Robinhood’s 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year decline of 10.7%. The trend is likely to reverse next year, with earnings expected to jump 34.5%. In the past week, earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been revised lower to $1.83 and $2.46 per share, respectively.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Robinhood's Prediction Market Push: Why Rothera Matters
Key Takeaways
Robinhood Markets’ (HOOD - Free Report) next revenue growth lever may not be another stock-trading feature. It will likely be Rothera, the prediction-market exchange built with Susquehanna International Group. After using outside venues such as Kalshi and ForecastEx, HOOD is now beginning to route event contracts through the infrastructure it effectively controls.
Prediction markets have become one of Robinhood’s fastest-growing products, with more than 12 billion event contracts traded in 2025 and more than 16 billion so far in 2026. By moving flow to Rothera, the company can potentially capture more economics, control listings, improve pricing and create a tighter in-app customer experience.
The lower fee structure strengthens this strategy. Robinhood’s new prediction-market pricing model charges commissions based on contract price and order size, with fees capped at 1 cent per contract. For active event-contract traders, this could make Rothera more attractive than competing platforms.
The World Cup gives Rothera its first major mainstream test. Robinhood has begun offering soccer event contracts through the platform, while Rothera’s early rollout showed demand in baseball markets, including more than $2 million in first-weekend trading volume. For Robinhood’s retail base, simple access matters: users do not need a separate crypto wallet, offshore account or niche prediction-market app.
Rothera also gives Robinhood strategic leverage against Kalshi. If meaningful flow migrates in-house, Kalshi could lose a key retail distribution channel, while HOOD gains control over fees, liquidity and product expansion.
Risks remain around regulation, sports-betting scrutiny and liquidity. But HOOD has the customer base, Susquehanna’s market-making expertise and a CFTC-regulated venue. This makes Rothera a potential backbone for Robinhood’s next major business line beyond stocks, options, crypto and futures.
How Diversified are HOOD’s Peers in Terms of Business?
Two close peers of HOOD are Charles Schwab (SCHW - Free Report) and Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR - Free Report) .
Schwab is diversifying by expanding beyond traditional brokerage into wealth management, advisory services, banking, lending, retirement solutions and asset management. Its focus on fee-based advisory assets, net interest income and broader client financial services helps reduce dependence on trading commissions. Schwab’s diversified model supports steadier revenues, deeper client relationships and improved resilience across market cycles.
Interactive Brokers is diversifying by expanding beyond core brokerage into global market access, high-yield cash balances, securities lending, institutional services, retirement accounts and advisor solutions. Interactive Brokers’ growing interest income, international client base and technology-driven platform reduce reliance on trading commissions while supporting scalable growth across retail, professional and institutional investors.
HOOD’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimate Analysis
So far this year, Robinhood shares have plunged 25.9% against the industry’s rally of 1.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HOOD shares are currently trading at a premium to the industry. The company has a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 8.44X compared with the industry average of 3.24X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Robinhood’s 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year decline of 10.7%. The trend is likely to reverse next year, with earnings expected to jump 34.5%. In the past week, earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been revised lower to $1.83 and $2.46 per share, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HOOD currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.