A month has gone by since the last earnings report for American Public Education (APEI Quick QuoteAPEI - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is American Public Education due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for American Public Education, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

American Public Q1 Earnings & Revenues Top Estimates, 2026 View Raised

American Public Education reported better-than-expected first-quarter 2026 results, with adjusted earnings and total revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Both the metrics grew year over year. The quarter’s performance was supported by higher Military+ course activity and continued Health+ enrollment gains, helping lift profitability across key metrics.

APEI’s Q1 Discussion

APEI reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 94 cents, up 129.3% year over year, and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 61 cents by 55.1%.

Total revenues increased 6.2% year over year to $174.7 million and edged past the consensus estimate of $174 million by 0.5%. Performance was supported by higher Military+ course activity and continued Health+ enrollment gains, helping lift profitability across key metrics.

APEI’s Q1 Discussion Shows Strong Operating Improvement

Profitability expanded meaningfully in the quarter as operating performance outpaced cost growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 37.5% year over year to $29.2 million from $21.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 17% from 13%, reflecting stronger operating leverage on higher revenues. Total costs and expenses in the first quarter of 2026 were $153.1 million, up 0.5% year over year. Instructional costs and services edged down to $74.6 million from $74.9 million, while selling and promotional expenses increased to $37.9 million from $35.2 million.

American Public’s Segments Deliver Broad-Based Growth

Performance was supported by growth across both operating segments. Military+ revenues increased 6.5% year over year to $89.4 million, driven by higher registration activity. Segment EBITDA rose to $31.8 million from $25.2 million a year ago, with EBITDA margin expanding to 36% from 30%.

Health+ revenues advanced 11% year over year to $85.4 million, reflecting higher enrollment and pricing actions implemented in the second half of 2025. Segment EBITDA improved to $3.2 million from $1.9 million in the year-ago quarter, and EBITDA margin increased to 4% from 2%.

APEI Highlights Demand Indicators Across Both Portfolios

Military+ posted approximately 106,600 net course registrations in the quarter, up from roughly 102,500 a year earlier. Management noted the residual impact of the government shutdown remained limited to the U.S. Coast Guard and was resolved late in April, helping keep disruption contained.

Health+ total student enrollment increased to about 19,400 from 18,000 in the prior-year quarter. During the period, the company opened a new Rasmussen University campus in Orlando, FL, bringing its Practical Nursing Diploma program to the Orlando market.

APEI Builds Liquidity and Steps Up Capital Actions

APEI ended the quarter with total cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $221 million, up from $176.5 million at the end of 2025. Cash flows from operations improved sharply, with net cash provided by operating activities increasing 71.1% year over year to $63.3 million.

The company also moved to optimize its capital structure and shareholder returns. In March, APEI refinanced its debt, cutting its borrowing rate by 375 basis points at then-current leverage levels and targeting about $3.7 million in annual interest savings excluding debt cost amortization. The board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $50 million, and the company repurchased 17,840 shares through the end of the first quarter.

American Public Raises 2026 Outlook

Following the quarter’s execution, management raised its full-year 2026 guidance for revenues and adjusted EBITDA. The company now expects revenues of $686-$696 million, compared with its prior outlook of $685-$695 million and up from $648.9 million reported in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA is projected in the range of $93-$102 million versus the earlier expectation of $91.5-$100.5 million, reflecting growth from $85.7 million in 2025. Management also increased its EPS guidance to $2.33-$2.68 from the previous range of $2.15-$2.47. The updated outlook implies significant improvement from the earnings of $1.36 per share reported in 2025. Meanwhile, capital expenditures are still expected between $28 million and $32 million, higher than the $15.9 million invested in 2025.

For the second quarter of 2026, revenues are expected to be $170-$172 million, with net income available to common stockholders projected at $6.5-$7.5 million. The company also anticipates diluted earnings per share of 34-39 cents, alongside Military+ net registrations of 98,300-100,300 and Health+ enrollment of about 19,600. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the band of $16.5-$18.0 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, American Public Education has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, American Public Education has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

American Public Education is part of the Zacks Schools industry. Over the past month, Universal Technical Institute (UTI Quick QuoteUTI - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 4.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.

Universal Technical reported revenues of $221.4 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +6.7%. EPS of $0.01 for the same period compares with $0.21 a year ago.

Universal Technical is expected to post earnings of $0.01 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -94.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Universal Technical. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.