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Can Novelis' Hot Mill Restart Ease Ford's Supply Challenges?
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Key Takeaways
Novelis restarted its Oswego hot mill after two 2025 fires disrupted aluminum sheet production.
F's aluminum shortage cut F-Series inventory and halted several vehicle production lines.
Ford estimates 100,000 lost trucks in 2025 and a $1.5B-$2B impact through 2026.
Ford Motor Company’s (F - Free Report) primary aluminum supplier in New York has resumed operations at its hot mill following two fires last year that shut down the facility and contributed to billions of dollars in lost production for Ford’s highly profitable F-Series pickup lineup.
The Novelis facility in Oswego, NY, is the largest U.S.-based supplier of automotive-grade aluminum sheet. A fire on Sept. 16, 2025, halted the rolling line of Novelis that produced aluminum sheets, while a second fire on Nov. 20, 2025, caused further damage to both the rolling equipment and parts of the plant. The aluminum sheets manufactured there are used to produce vehicle components such as hoods, fenders and other exterior body panels.
The disruption had a significant impact on Ford, which relies on aluminum body construction for its F-150 pickup, the best-selling vehicle in the United States for decades. The resulting aluminum shortage reduced the automaker’s truck inventory levels at dealerships ahead of the typically strong summer selling season.
Per Ford spokesperson Dave Tovar, the restart marks an important step forward, but it also highlights the challenges many automotive suppliers continue to face. Ford remains focused on working closely with suppliers to strengthen long-term supply chain resilience.
Per Ford CEO Jim Farley, the company currently has a solid supply of finished aluminum. F-Series inventory stands at roughly a 50-day supply nationwide, which is somewhat below Ford’s preferred level for trucks, but production is ramping up steadily, and the company expects a strong performance in the second half of the year.
Ford uses lightweight aluminum in its truck bodies to help improve fuel efficiency. The Novelis fires forced Ford to temporarily suspend production of the all-electric F-150 Lightning at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn due to insufficient aluminum supplies. The company also briefly halted production of the Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator SUVs at its Kentucky Truck Plant in Louisville. In addition, the shortage constrained the output of the gasoline-powered F-150, which is assembled at Ford’s Dearborn Truck Plant and Kansas City Assembly Plant in Claycomo, Missouri.
Overall, Ford estimates it lost approximately 100,000 units of truck production in 2025 because of the supply disruption. To recover from last year’s inventory shortfall, the automaker plans to build an additional 50,000 trucks this year, targeting total production of about 150,000 units.
Per Ford, the aluminum shortage and manufacturing disruptions caused by the fires are projected to have a financial impact of between $1.5 billion and $2 billion through 2026. F carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
How did the Novelis Outage Impact Its Other Customers?
Stellantis N.V. (STLA - Free Report) was also affected by the Novelis fire, leading the automaker to temporarily suspend production of the Jeep Grand Wagoneer at its Warren, MI, assembly plant. The Wagoneer lineup relies extensively on aluminum components supplied by Novelis, including key body panels such as the hood and doors. As a result of the supply disruption, production at the Warren facility was halted on Oct. 13, 2025, and remained idle until operations resumed during the week of Nov. 3, 2025.
General Motors Company (GM - Free Report) experienced only limited disruption from the Novelis fire, largely due to the supply chain risk management practices it developed after the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. That event exposed weaknesses in GM’s business continuity planning and prompted the company to adopt a more strategic approach to supply chain resilience. As a result, GM was better positioned to identify potential disruptions, assess supplier exposure and respond more effectively to supply chain challenges, helping it avoid the significant production impacts seen at some of its peers.
F’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Ford has outperformed the Zacks Automotive-Domestic industry in the last six months. Its shares have gained 3.9% against the industry’s decline of 4.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, F appears undervalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.33, lower than the industry’s 3.48.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s 2026 EPS has moved up 6 cents in the past 30 days, while for 2027 EPS, it has moved down a penny in the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
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Can Novelis' Hot Mill Restart Ease Ford's Supply Challenges?
Key Takeaways
Ford Motor Company’s (F - Free Report) primary aluminum supplier in New York has resumed operations at its hot mill following two fires last year that shut down the facility and contributed to billions of dollars in lost production for Ford’s highly profitable F-Series pickup lineup.
The Novelis facility in Oswego, NY, is the largest U.S.-based supplier of automotive-grade aluminum sheet. A fire on Sept. 16, 2025, halted the rolling line of Novelis that produced aluminum sheets, while a second fire on Nov. 20, 2025, caused further damage to both the rolling equipment and parts of the plant. The aluminum sheets manufactured there are used to produce vehicle components such as hoods, fenders and other exterior body panels.
The disruption had a significant impact on Ford, which relies on aluminum body construction for its F-150 pickup, the best-selling vehicle in the United States for decades. The resulting aluminum shortage reduced the automaker’s truck inventory levels at dealerships ahead of the typically strong summer selling season.
Per Ford spokesperson Dave Tovar, the restart marks an important step forward, but it also highlights the challenges many automotive suppliers continue to face. Ford remains focused on working closely with suppliers to strengthen long-term supply chain resilience.
Per Ford CEO Jim Farley, the company currently has a solid supply of finished aluminum. F-Series inventory stands at roughly a 50-day supply nationwide, which is somewhat below Ford’s preferred level for trucks, but production is ramping up steadily, and the company expects a strong performance in the second half of the year.
Ford uses lightweight aluminum in its truck bodies to help improve fuel efficiency. The Novelis fires forced Ford to temporarily suspend production of the all-electric F-150 Lightning at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn due to insufficient aluminum supplies. The company also briefly halted production of the Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator SUVs at its Kentucky Truck Plant in Louisville. In addition, the shortage constrained the output of the gasoline-powered F-150, which is assembled at Ford’s Dearborn Truck Plant and Kansas City Assembly Plant in Claycomo, Missouri.
Overall, Ford estimates it lost approximately 100,000 units of truck production in 2025 because of the supply disruption. To recover from last year’s inventory shortfall, the automaker plans to build an additional 50,000 trucks this year, targeting total production of about 150,000 units.
Per Ford, the aluminum shortage and manufacturing disruptions caused by the fires are projected to have a financial impact of between $1.5 billion and $2 billion through 2026. F carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
How did the Novelis Outage Impact Its Other Customers?
Stellantis N.V. (STLA - Free Report) was also affected by the Novelis fire, leading the automaker to temporarily suspend production of the Jeep Grand Wagoneer at its Warren, MI, assembly plant. The Wagoneer lineup relies extensively on aluminum components supplied by Novelis, including key body panels such as the hood and doors. As a result of the supply disruption, production at the Warren facility was halted on Oct. 13, 2025, and remained idle until operations resumed during the week of Nov. 3, 2025.
General Motors Company (GM - Free Report) experienced only limited disruption from the Novelis fire, largely due to the supply chain risk management practices it developed after the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. That event exposed weaknesses in GM’s business continuity planning and prompted the company to adopt a more strategic approach to supply chain resilience. As a result, GM was better positioned to identify potential disruptions, assess supplier exposure and respond more effectively to supply chain challenges, helping it avoid the significant production impacts seen at some of its peers.
F’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Ford has outperformed the Zacks Automotive-Domestic industry in the last six months. Its shares have gained 3.9% against the industry’s decline of 4.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, F appears undervalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.33, lower than the industry’s 3.48.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s 2026 EPS has moved up 6 cents in the past 30 days, while for 2027 EPS, it has moved down a penny in the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research