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CAVA's Expansion Outlook Improves: Can New Units Keep Driving Growth?
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Key Takeaways
CAVA now expects to open 75-77 net new restaurants in FY26, up from prior guidance.
CAVA opened 20 net new restaurants in Q1, expanding to 459 locations across 29 states and D.C.
CAVA's 2026 restaurant cohort is tracking in line with or ahead of its strong 2025 class.
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) is raising its restaurant opening target as new units continue to deliver strong early productivity. The company now expects to open 75-77 net new CAVA restaurants in fiscal 2026, up from its prior outlook of 74-76, signaling confidence in its development pipeline and long-term expansion opportunity.
In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, CAVA opened 20 net new restaurants, ending the period with 459 restaurants across 29 states and Washington, D.C. The restaurant base increased 20.2% year over year, reflecting continued progress in national expansion. During the quarter, the company reported new market openings in Cincinnati, St. Louis and Columbus and stated plans to open in Minneapolis later this year.
CAVA’s growth momentum is being supported by strong new-unit economics. The company said its 2026 restaurant cohort is tracking in line with or ahead of the strength of its 2025 class, with first-quarter new restaurant productivity trending above 100%. Management also noted that new openings continue to exceed expectations in both top-line and margin performance, while systemwide AUVs reached approximately $3 million.
Management indicated that results remain strong across geographies, formats and market types, suggesting that the concept continues to resonate beyond its more established markets. The 2025 vintage is also performing similarly to the 2024 class, indicating that recent cohorts are holding up well as they mature into the comp base.
For CAVA, the raised opening outlook strengthens the case that growth momentum can continue, supported by strong new-unit productivity, broad market acceptance and healthy cohort performance. The consistency of recent restaurant classes suggests that the company’s development model remains fundamentally sound as it expands into new markets. If execution holds as the restaurant base scales, CAVA’s unit-growth runway could remain a key driver of growth.
How CAVA Stacks Up Against CMG and SHAK
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) remains a larger-scale development benchmark. In the first quarter of 2026, Chipotle opened 49 restaurants, including 42 Chipotlanes and remains on track to open around 350 restaurants for the full year, with roughly 80% including a Chipotlane. Chipotle’s long-term target of 7,000 restaurants underscores the scale advantage it still holds, but CAVA’s smaller base gives it a longer runway for percentage-based unit growth.
Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) is also accelerating development. In the first quarter of 2026, Shake Shack opened 17 company-operated Shacks, its largest first-quarter opening count, and raised its 2026 company-operated opening outlook to 60-65 units from the prior 55-60 range. Shake Shack’s development cadence reflects strong growth ambition, though CAVA’s above-100% new restaurant productivity gives its unit-growth story an important efficiency component.
Compared with CMG’s mature large-scale expansion model and SHAK’s accelerating company-operated development, CAVA’s growth story stands out for the combination of a smaller restaurant base, raised opening guidance and strong new-unit productivity. With recent cohorts performing well, CAVA’s ability to scale while preserving unit economics remains central to its long-term growth narrative.
CAVA’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CAVA’s shares have gained 6.1% in the past year against the industry’s 10% growth.
CAVA’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CAVA trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 5.87, above the industry’s average of 3.25.
CAVA’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAVA’s fiscal 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 1.9%. The EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 have increased in the past 30 days.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
CAVA's Expansion Outlook Improves: Can New Units Keep Driving Growth?
Key Takeaways
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA - Free Report) is raising its restaurant opening target as new units continue to deliver strong early productivity. The company now expects to open 75-77 net new CAVA restaurants in fiscal 2026, up from its prior outlook of 74-76, signaling confidence in its development pipeline and long-term expansion opportunity.
In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, CAVA opened 20 net new restaurants, ending the period with 459 restaurants across 29 states and Washington, D.C. The restaurant base increased 20.2% year over year, reflecting continued progress in national expansion. During the quarter, the company reported new market openings in Cincinnati, St. Louis and Columbus and stated plans to open in Minneapolis later this year.
CAVA’s growth momentum is being supported by strong new-unit economics. The company said its 2026 restaurant cohort is tracking in line with or ahead of the strength of its 2025 class, with first-quarter new restaurant productivity trending above 100%. Management also noted that new openings continue to exceed expectations in both top-line and margin performance, while systemwide AUVs reached approximately $3 million.
Management indicated that results remain strong across geographies, formats and market types, suggesting that the concept continues to resonate beyond its more established markets. The 2025 vintage is also performing similarly to the 2024 class, indicating that recent cohorts are holding up well as they mature into the comp base.
For CAVA, the raised opening outlook strengthens the case that growth momentum can continue, supported by strong new-unit productivity, broad market acceptance and healthy cohort performance. The consistency of recent restaurant classes suggests that the company’s development model remains fundamentally sound as it expands into new markets. If execution holds as the restaurant base scales, CAVA’s unit-growth runway could remain a key driver of growth.
How CAVA Stacks Up Against CMG and SHAK
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) remains a larger-scale development benchmark. In the first quarter of 2026, Chipotle opened 49 restaurants, including 42 Chipotlanes and remains on track to open around 350 restaurants for the full year, with roughly 80% including a Chipotlane. Chipotle’s long-term target of 7,000 restaurants underscores the scale advantage it still holds, but CAVA’s smaller base gives it a longer runway for percentage-based unit growth.
Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) is also accelerating development. In the first quarter of 2026, Shake Shack opened 17 company-operated Shacks, its largest first-quarter opening count, and raised its 2026 company-operated opening outlook to 60-65 units from the prior 55-60 range. Shake Shack’s development cadence reflects strong growth ambition, though CAVA’s above-100% new restaurant productivity gives its unit-growth story an important efficiency component.
Compared with CMG’s mature large-scale expansion model and SHAK’s accelerating company-operated development, CAVA’s growth story stands out for the combination of a smaller restaurant base, raised opening guidance and strong new-unit productivity. With recent cohorts performing well, CAVA’s ability to scale while preserving unit economics remains central to its long-term growth narrative.
CAVA’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
CAVA’s shares have gained 6.1% in the past year against the industry’s 10% growth.
CAVA’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, CAVA trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 5.87, above the industry’s average of 3.25.
CAVA’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAVA’s fiscal 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 1.9%. The EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 have increased in the past 30 days.
EPS Trend of CAVA Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CAVA stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.