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Murphy USA Stock Up 36% in 3 Months: Will the Rally Continue?
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Key Takeaways
Murphy USA plans to open 45-55 new stores in 2026, with 18 locations already under construction.
MUSA posted Q1 EPS of $7.28 as fuel contribution rose 40.6% and margins expanded year over year.
Murphy USA saw 2026 EPS estimates rise to $31.48 as fuel economics and merchandise sales improved.
Murphy USA's (MUSA - Free Report) shares have surged 36.2% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the Oil-Energy sector, which declined just 0.4% during the same period. The strong rally reflects growing investor confidence in the company's disciplined execution and long-term growth strategy.
Share Price Trend in the Past Three Months
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The convenience retailer is reinforcing that growth story by accelerating store expansion, a key pillar of its value-creation strategy. Following strong first-quarter 2026 results, Murphy USA reaffirmed plans to open 45-55 new stores this year, highlighting management's confidence in site economics, consumer demand and its ability to generate attractive returns on invested capital.
The expansion update comes at a time when Murphy USA is benefiting from favorable fuel margins, rising merchandise contribution and improving earnings expectations. With analysts becoming increasingly optimistic about the company’s EPS outlook, investors may be wondering whether MUSA remains an attractive stock despite its recent gains.
Store Expansion Continues to Fuel Long-Term Growth
Murphy USA’s investment appeal rests on a straightforward but effective strategy: expanding its store footprint while leveraging the low-cost operating model to drive higher fuel volumes and merchandise sales.
The company currently operates more than 1,800 stores across 27 states and serves nearly two million customers daily. Unlike many convenience-store operators that rely heavily on acquisitions, MUSA has largely pursued organic growth, allowing management to maintain operational consistency and focus on locations capable of generating strong returns.
Management's expectation of new stores opening in 2026 has been supported by 18 locations already under construction. As the network expands, the company benefits from greater operating leverage, increased customer traffic and higher revenue opportunities. The ability to consistently generate attractive returns from new-store investments remains one of Murphy USA’s most important competitive strengths.
Strong Q1 Results Reflect Business Momentum
MUSA’s first-quarter results highlighted the resilience of its value-oriented business model.
Earnings surged to $7.28 per share from $2.63 in the year-ago period, driven by stronger fuel margins, favorable fuel supply economics and growing merchandise contribution.
Image Source: Murphy USA Inc.
Total fuel contribution increased 40.6% year over year to $403.9 million, while fuel contribution margins expanded to 35 cents per gallon from 25.4 cents a year earlier.
Image Source: Murphy USA Inc.
Fuel remains the company’s primary earnings engine, but merchandise sales are becoming an increasingly important contributor. During the quarter, merchandise contribution rose 7.3% year over year to $210.2 million, supported by strong nicotine sales, higher customer traffic and improved margins.
This trend is particularly encouraging because merchandise products generally carry higher margins than fuel. As MUSA continues to develop larger-format stores and expand food-and-beverage offerings, merchandise sales should play a bigger role in supporting earnings growth and reducing dependence on fuel-margin fluctuations.
Value Positioning Supports Market-Share Gains
MUSA’s everyday-low-price strategy continues to resonate with consumers in a challenging economic environment.
Persistent inflation and elevated living costs have increased demand for value-focused retailers, and Murphy USA appears well positioned to capitalize on this trend. Its ability to offer competitively priced fuel and convenience-store merchandise has helped maintain strong traffic levels across its network.
The company’s low-cost operating structure also allows it to respond effectively to periods of fuel-price volatility. Historically, these market disruptions have often created opportunities for Murphy USA to gain market share, reinforcing its position as a leading value-focused convenience retailer.
Is MUSA a Better Investment Than Its Peers?
Murphy USA competes with major convenience-store operators such as Casey's General Stores (CASY - Free Report) and Arko Corp. (ARKO - Free Report) .
Casey's General Stores has successfully expanded through acquisitions, new-store development and growth in prepared-food offerings. However, MUSA’s fuel-focused operating model continues to drive higher fuel volumes and strong customer traffic.
Meanwhile, Arko has focused on expanding its retail footprint and improving store productivity. While those initiatives support growth, MUSA benefits from greater scale, a more established operating platform and a longer track record of generating attractive returns through organic expansion.
Compared with Casey’s GeneralStores and Arko, MUSA’s scale advantages and operational efficiency provide greater earnings stability and support long-term shareholder value creation.
Earnings Estimates and Valuation Remain Supportive
One of the most encouraging developments for investors is the improvement in MUSA’s earnings outlook.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Over the past 60 days, analysts have significantly increased their earnings expectations. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings has climbed from $25.52 per share to $32.32, while the 2027 estimate has increased from $27.33 to $29.56.
These upward revisions reflect growing confidence that favorable fuel economics, rising merchandise contribution and ongoing store expansion will continue to support earnings growth.
The handsome gains reflect investor confidence in the company’s execution and long-term strategy. Despite the rally, valuation remains reasonable.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MUSA's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.01 reflects an attractive valuation, particularly in light of its strong earnings momentum, expanding retail network and improving profitability. The stock also trades at a notable discount to peers, with Casey's General Stores and Arko carrying forward P/E multiples of 44.47 and 25.82, respectively.
Should Investors Buy MUSA Stock?
Murphy USA's decision to accelerate store expansion reinforces confidence in its long-term growth trajectory. The company is benefiting from strong fuel economics, growing merchandise contribution, disciplined capital allocation and a proven ability to generate attractive returns from new-store investments. While fuel market volatility and consumer spending trends remain factors to monitor, MUSA's value-oriented business model continues to perform well across different economic environments. Combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), favorable earnings momentum and a growing store base, the stock appears well positioned for further upside.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Murphy USA Stock Up 36% in 3 Months: Will the Rally Continue?
Key Takeaways
Murphy USA's (MUSA - Free Report) shares have surged 36.2% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the Oil-Energy sector, which declined just 0.4% during the same period. The strong rally reflects growing investor confidence in the company's disciplined execution and long-term growth strategy.
Share Price Trend in the Past Three Months
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The convenience retailer is reinforcing that growth story by accelerating store expansion, a key pillar of its value-creation strategy. Following strong first-quarter 2026 results, Murphy USA reaffirmed plans to open 45-55 new stores this year, highlighting management's confidence in site economics, consumer demand and its ability to generate attractive returns on invested capital.
The expansion update comes at a time when Murphy USA is benefiting from favorable fuel margins, rising merchandise contribution and improving earnings expectations. With analysts becoming increasingly optimistic about the company’s EPS outlook, investors may be wondering whether MUSA remains an attractive stock despite its recent gains.
Store Expansion Continues to Fuel Long-Term Growth
Murphy USA’s investment appeal rests on a straightforward but effective strategy: expanding its store footprint while leveraging the low-cost operating model to drive higher fuel volumes and merchandise sales.
The company currently operates more than 1,800 stores across 27 states and serves nearly two million customers daily. Unlike many convenience-store operators that rely heavily on acquisitions, MUSA has largely pursued organic growth, allowing management to maintain operational consistency and focus on locations capable of generating strong returns.
Management's expectation of new stores opening in 2026 has been supported by 18 locations already under construction. As the network expands, the company benefits from greater operating leverage, increased customer traffic and higher revenue opportunities. The ability to consistently generate attractive returns from new-store investments remains one of Murphy USA’s most important competitive strengths.
Strong Q1 Results Reflect Business Momentum
MUSA’s first-quarter results highlighted the resilience of its value-oriented business model.
Earnings surged to $7.28 per share from $2.63 in the year-ago period, driven by stronger fuel margins, favorable fuel supply economics and growing merchandise contribution.
Image Source: Murphy USA Inc.
Total fuel contribution increased 40.6% year over year to $403.9 million, while fuel contribution margins expanded to 35 cents per gallon from 25.4 cents a year earlier.
Image Source: Murphy USA Inc.
Fuel remains the company’s primary earnings engine, but merchandise sales are becoming an increasingly important contributor. During the quarter, merchandise contribution rose 7.3% year over year to $210.2 million, supported by strong nicotine sales, higher customer traffic and improved margins.
This trend is particularly encouraging because merchandise products generally carry higher margins than fuel. As MUSA continues to develop larger-format stores and expand food-and-beverage offerings, merchandise sales should play a bigger role in supporting earnings growth and reducing dependence on fuel-margin fluctuations.
Value Positioning Supports Market-Share Gains
MUSA’s everyday-low-price strategy continues to resonate with consumers in a challenging economic environment.
Persistent inflation and elevated living costs have increased demand for value-focused retailers, and Murphy USA appears well positioned to capitalize on this trend. Its ability to offer competitively priced fuel and convenience-store merchandise has helped maintain strong traffic levels across its network.
The company’s low-cost operating structure also allows it to respond effectively to periods of fuel-price volatility. Historically, these market disruptions have often created opportunities for Murphy USA to gain market share, reinforcing its position as a leading value-focused convenience retailer.
Is MUSA a Better Investment Than Its Peers?
Murphy USA competes with major convenience-store operators such as Casey's General Stores (CASY - Free Report) and Arko Corp. (ARKO - Free Report) .
Casey's General Stores has successfully expanded through acquisitions, new-store development and growth in prepared-food offerings. However, MUSA’s fuel-focused operating model continues to drive higher fuel volumes and strong customer traffic.
Meanwhile, Arko has focused on expanding its retail footprint and improving store productivity. While those initiatives support growth, MUSA benefits from greater scale, a more established operating platform and a longer track record of generating attractive returns through organic expansion.
Compared with Casey’s GeneralStores and Arko, MUSA’s scale advantages and operational efficiency provide greater earnings stability and support long-term shareholder value creation.
Earnings Estimates and Valuation Remain Supportive
One of the most encouraging developments for investors is the improvement in MUSA’s earnings outlook.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Over the past 60 days, analysts have significantly increased their earnings expectations. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings has climbed from $25.52 per share to $32.32, while the 2027 estimate has increased from $27.33 to $29.56.
These upward revisions reflect growing confidence that favorable fuel economics, rising merchandise contribution and ongoing store expansion will continue to support earnings growth.
The handsome gains reflect investor confidence in the company’s execution and long-term strategy. Despite the rally, valuation remains reasonable.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MUSA's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.01 reflects an attractive valuation, particularly in light of its strong earnings momentum, expanding retail network and improving profitability. The stock also trades at a notable discount to peers, with Casey's General Stores and Arko carrying forward P/E multiples of 44.47 and 25.82, respectively.
Should Investors Buy MUSA Stock?
Murphy USA's decision to accelerate store expansion reinforces confidence in its long-term growth trajectory. The company is benefiting from strong fuel economics, growing merchandise contribution, disciplined capital allocation and a proven ability to generate attractive returns from new-store investments. While fuel market volatility and consumer spending trends remain factors to monitor, MUSA's value-oriented business model continues to perform well across different economic environments. Combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), favorable earnings momentum and a growing store base, the stock appears well positioned for further upside.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.