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Does ZTO Express' Lower Valuation Indicate a Buying Opportunity?
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Key Takeaways
ZTO's earnings estimates for 2026 have been revised higher, signaling solid broker confidence.
ZTO expects 2026 parcel volume to be in the range of 42.37-43.52 billion (up 10-13% year over year growth).
ZTO has gained 32.8% in the past year, outperforming the transportation-services industry.
ZTO Express (ZTO - Free Report) looks cheap from a valuation standpoint. Considering the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio (P/E-F12M), ZTO Express is trading at a discount compared to the industry.
The stock has a forward 12-month P/E-F12M of 10.98X compared with 16.49X for the industry over the past five years. The company’s forward 12-month P/E-F12M ratio is also above the median level of 13.56X over the past five years. These factors indicate that the stock’s valuation is attractive. ZTO Express has a Value Score of A.
ZTO P/E Ratio (Forward 12 Months) Vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Now, the question is whether it is worth buying, holding, or selling the ZTO Express stock at current prices. Let us delve deeper to find out.
Tailwinds Working in Favor of ZTO Stock
ZTO Express’ top line continues to benefit from the strong performance of the core express delivery services unit. Notably, revenues from the core express delivery business increased 22.5% year over year in first-quarter 2026, owing to 13.2% growth in parcel volume and an 8.2% increase in parcel unit price. Key account revenue, generated by direct sales organizations, grew 92.2% year over year, owing to an increase in e-commerce return parcels. Based on current market and operating conditions, ZTO Express expects its 2026 parcel volume guidance in the range of 42.37 billion to 43.52 billion (reflecting 10-13% year over year growth).
ZTO Express’s efforts to reward its shareholders even in the present uncertain scenario are noteworthy. ZTO’s board has approved a new share repurchase program in March 2026, authorizing the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion of its shares over the next 24 months, effective from March 20, 2026, through March 20, 2028. ZTO Express anticipates funding these repurchases utilizing its existing cash balance. Such shareholder-friendly efforts boost investor confidence and positively impact the company’s bottom line.
ZTO Stock’s Price Performance
Shares of ZTO Express have gained 32.8% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Transportation - Equipment and Leasing industry’s 20.6% increase. However, the company performed unfavorably when compared with that of other industry players, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD - Free Report) and Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR - Free Report) .
ZTO Stock’s One-Year Price Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Do Earnings Estimates Say for ZTO?
The positive sentiment surrounding ZTO stock is evident from the fact that the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has also been projected northward in the past 90 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The favorable estimate revisions indicate brokers’ confidence in the stock.
Time to Buy ZTO Stock
Apart from being attractively valued, the upbeat performance of the core express delivery services segment is a positive for ZTO Express. The uptick was driven by an increase in parcel volume and an increase in parcel unit price. ZTO Express expects its 2026 parcel volume guidance to be in the range of 42.37 billion-43.52 billion, reflecting an increase of 10-13% year over year. ZTO Express’s efforts to reward its shareholders look encouraging.
We believe that the positives surrounding the stock (as highlighted throughout the write-up) outweigh the concerns regarding higher selling, general and administrative expenses, which are pushing up operating expenses and hurting the bottom line, coupled with the highly competitive domestic express delivery market. We, therefore, suggest investors add ZTO Express stock to their portfolios for healthy returns. The company’s Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) further supports our thesis. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Does ZTO Express' Lower Valuation Indicate a Buying Opportunity?
Key Takeaways
ZTO Express (ZTO - Free Report) looks cheap from a valuation standpoint. Considering the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio (P/E-F12M), ZTO Express is trading at a discount compared to the industry.
The stock has a forward 12-month P/E-F12M of 10.98X compared with 16.49X for the industry over the past five years. The company’s forward 12-month P/E-F12M ratio is also above the median level of 13.56X over the past five years. These factors indicate that the stock’s valuation is attractive. ZTO Express has a Value Score of A.
ZTO P/E Ratio (Forward 12 Months) Vs. Industry
Now, the question is whether it is worth buying, holding, or selling the ZTO Express stock at current prices. Let us delve deeper to find out.
Tailwinds Working in Favor of ZTO Stock
ZTO Express’ top line continues to benefit from the strong performance of the core express delivery services unit. Notably, revenues from the core express delivery business increased 22.5% year over year in first-quarter 2026, owing to 13.2% growth in parcel volume and an 8.2% increase in parcel unit price. Key account revenue, generated by direct sales organizations, grew 92.2% year over year, owing to an increase in e-commerce return parcels. Based on current market and operating conditions, ZTO Express expects its 2026 parcel volume guidance in the range of 42.37 billion to 43.52 billion (reflecting 10-13% year over year growth).
ZTO Express’s efforts to reward its shareholders even in the present uncertain scenario are noteworthy. ZTO’s board has approved a new share repurchase program in March 2026, authorizing the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion of its shares over the next 24 months, effective from March 20, 2026, through March 20, 2028. ZTO Express anticipates funding these repurchases utilizing its existing cash balance. Such shareholder-friendly efforts boost investor confidence and positively impact the company’s bottom line.
ZTO Stock’s Price Performance
Shares of ZTO Express have gained 32.8% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Transportation - Equipment and Leasing industry’s 20.6% increase. However, the company performed unfavorably when compared with that of other industry players, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD - Free Report) and Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR - Free Report) .
ZTO Stock’s One-Year Price Comparison
What Do Earnings Estimates Say for ZTO?
The positive sentiment surrounding ZTO stock is evident from the fact that the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has also been projected northward in the past 90 days.
The favorable estimate revisions indicate brokers’ confidence in the stock.
Time to Buy ZTO Stock
Apart from being attractively valued, the upbeat performance of the core express delivery services segment is a positive for ZTO Express. The uptick was driven by an increase in parcel volume and an increase in parcel unit price. ZTO Express expects its 2026 parcel volume guidance to be in the range of 42.37 billion-43.52 billion, reflecting an increase of 10-13% year over year. ZTO Express’s efforts to reward its shareholders look encouraging.
We believe that the positives surrounding the stock (as highlighted throughout the write-up) outweigh the concerns regarding higher selling, general and administrative expenses, which are pushing up operating expenses and hurting the bottom line, coupled with the highly competitive domestic express delivery market. We, therefore, suggest investors add ZTO Express stock to their portfolios for healthy returns. The company’s Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) further supports our thesis. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.