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Affirm Pops 13.3% in a Month: Should Investors Chase the Rally?
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Key Takeaways
Affirm's expanding ecosystem and card growth are driving stronger user engagement.
Earnings estimates and GMV outlook point to continued momentum for AFRM.
Rising leverage and higher credit-loss provisions remain risks to watch.
Shares of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM - Free Report) have climbed 13.3% over the past month, handily beating the broader industry, which slipped 2.6%, while the S&P 500 was little changed. The rally reflects growing confidence in the company’s growth prospects, improving profitability and an expanding ecosystem. Among major buy now, pay later (BNPL) peers, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL - Free Report) has fallen 3.9% during the same period, while Klarna Group plc (KLAR - Free Report) has gained 13.7%.
Price Performance – AFRM, PYPL, KLAR, Industry & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s look at its growth drivers.
AFRM’s New Initiatives Are Opening More Doors
Affirm’s newer offerings are beginning to play a bigger role in its growth story. The Affirm Card, digital wallet integrations, agentic commerce initiatives and the recently launched Affirm Edge are creating additional ways for customers to use the platform. Active cardholders reached 4.4 million in the fiscal third quarter, while card GMV alone soared 146% year over year, helped by the company’s cash-flow underwriting model.
Affirm also strengthened its relationship with Google by integrating its BNPL services to Google Search, AI Mode and the Gemini app through Google Pay. The move expands its reach and could drive higher transaction volumes over time.
Funding capacity also continues to improve. Earlier this month, Affirm expanded its partnership with Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. The agreement is expected to support roughly $8 billion in consumer loan volume over the next two years, underscoring institutional confidence in the company’s underwriting and credit performance.
AFRM Building Scale Across Consumers and Merchants
Despite uncertainty in the broader economy, Affirm continues to deepen its presence through partnerships, product innovation and a growing customer base. These efforts are expanding its addressable market and reducing reliance on any single growth driver.
Active consumers rose 22% year over year to 26.8 million in the fiscal third quarter. Usage is spreading beyond large purchases into categories such as groceries, fuel, travel and subscriptions, making the platform more relevant to everyday spending.
Transactions increased 45% to 45.3 million in the latest quarter. Repeat users accounted for about 96% of total transactions, showing that customers continue to come back. Gross merchandise volume rose 35% to $11.6 billion. For fiscal 2026, management expects GMV between $49.265 billion and $49.565 billion. It has also outlined a medium-term goal of reaching $100 billion in annual GMV, supported by at least 25% yearly growth.
Merchant adoption is also gaining momentum. Active merchants climbed 44% from a year ago to 515,000 as of March 31, 2026, reflecting steady demand for flexible payment options.
Earnings Outlook for AFRM Remains Bright
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings of $1.25 per share indicates a 733.3% year-over-year surge, while the estimate for fiscal 2027 earnings implies further growth of 35.6%. Moreover, the consensus mark for fiscal 2026 and 2027 revenues suggests 30.6% and 26.5% year-over-year growth, respectively.
It has delivered solid financial results lately, beating earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 74.9%.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The outlook is not without challenges. Inflation concerns and uneven economic conditions continue to raise questions about consumer spending and borrowers’ ability to manage debt. Provision for credit losses increased 24.6% in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, reflecting a more cautious view of the environment.
Competition is intensifying as Klarna and other fintech firms aggressively pursue market share. Walmart’s decision last year to replace Affirm with Klarna as its exclusive BNPL provider highlighted how quickly key partnerships can change.
Leverage is another concern. Funding debt stood at $2.4 billion at the end of the fiscal third quarter, up from $1.6 billion at fiscal 2025-end. The company’s debt-to-capital ratio of 67.7% remains well above the industry average of 21.4%. PayPal, by comparison, stands at 32%.
The stock trades at 4.67X forward 12-month sales, slightly above its three-year median of 4.40X and the industry average of 3.66X, leaving little room for disappointment. PayPal and Klarna trade far lower, at 1.07X and 1.46X forward sales, respectively.
Conclusion
Affirm is executing well, supported by strong user engagement, expanding products and improving earnings prospects. Its growing merchant network and rising transaction volumes provide a solid foundation for long-term growth. However, elevated leverage, rising credit-loss provisions, intense competition and a premium valuation remain key concerns.
While the company’s growth story remains compelling, these risks warrant caution in the short run. Reflecting the balance between favorable fundamentals and the challenges, Affirm currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting investors may want to wait for a more attractive entry point or additional catalysts. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Affirm Pops 13.3% in a Month: Should Investors Chase the Rally?
Key Takeaways
Shares of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM - Free Report) have climbed 13.3% over the past month, handily beating the broader industry, which slipped 2.6%, while the S&P 500 was little changed. The rally reflects growing confidence in the company’s growth prospects, improving profitability and an expanding ecosystem. Among major buy now, pay later (BNPL) peers, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL - Free Report) has fallen 3.9% during the same period, while Klarna Group plc (KLAR - Free Report) has gained 13.7%.
Price Performance – AFRM, PYPL, KLAR, Industry & S&P 500
Let’s look at its growth drivers.
AFRM’s New Initiatives Are Opening More Doors
Affirm’s newer offerings are beginning to play a bigger role in its growth story. The Affirm Card, digital wallet integrations, agentic commerce initiatives and the recently launched Affirm Edge are creating additional ways for customers to use the platform. Active cardholders reached 4.4 million in the fiscal third quarter, while card GMV alone soared 146% year over year, helped by the company’s cash-flow underwriting model.
Affirm also strengthened its relationship with Google by integrating its BNPL services to Google Search, AI Mode and the Gemini app through Google Pay. The move expands its reach and could drive higher transaction volumes over time.
Funding capacity also continues to improve. Earlier this month, Affirm expanded its partnership with Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. The agreement is expected to support roughly $8 billion in consumer loan volume over the next two years, underscoring institutional confidence in the company’s underwriting and credit performance.
AFRM Building Scale Across Consumers and Merchants
Despite uncertainty in the broader economy, Affirm continues to deepen its presence through partnerships, product innovation and a growing customer base. These efforts are expanding its addressable market and reducing reliance on any single growth driver.
Active consumers rose 22% year over year to 26.8 million in the fiscal third quarter. Usage is spreading beyond large purchases into categories such as groceries, fuel, travel and subscriptions, making the platform more relevant to everyday spending.
Transactions increased 45% to 45.3 million in the latest quarter. Repeat users accounted for about 96% of total transactions, showing that customers continue to come back. Gross merchandise volume rose 35% to $11.6 billion. For fiscal 2026, management expects GMV between $49.265 billion and $49.565 billion. It has also outlined a medium-term goal of reaching $100 billion in annual GMV, supported by at least 25% yearly growth.
Merchant adoption is also gaining momentum. Active merchants climbed 44% from a year ago to 515,000 as of March 31, 2026, reflecting steady demand for flexible payment options.
Earnings Outlook for AFRM Remains Bright
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings of $1.25 per share indicates a 733.3% year-over-year surge, while the estimate for fiscal 2027 earnings implies further growth of 35.6%. Moreover, the consensus mark for fiscal 2026 and 2027 revenues suggests 30.6% and 26.5% year-over-year growth, respectively.
It has delivered solid financial results lately, beating earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 74.9%.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Affirm Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Affirm Holdings, Inc. Quote
Risks Still Deserve Attention
The outlook is not without challenges. Inflation concerns and uneven economic conditions continue to raise questions about consumer spending and borrowers’ ability to manage debt. Provision for credit losses increased 24.6% in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, reflecting a more cautious view of the environment.
Competition is intensifying as Klarna and other fintech firms aggressively pursue market share. Walmart’s decision last year to replace Affirm with Klarna as its exclusive BNPL provider highlighted how quickly key partnerships can change.
Leverage is another concern. Funding debt stood at $2.4 billion at the end of the fiscal third quarter, up from $1.6 billion at fiscal 2025-end. The company’s debt-to-capital ratio of 67.7% remains well above the industry average of 21.4%. PayPal, by comparison, stands at 32%.
The stock trades at 4.67X forward 12-month sales, slightly above its three-year median of 4.40X and the industry average of 3.66X, leaving little room for disappointment. PayPal and Klarna trade far lower, at 1.07X and 1.46X forward sales, respectively.
Conclusion
Affirm is executing well, supported by strong user engagement, expanding products and improving earnings prospects. Its growing merchant network and rising transaction volumes provide a solid foundation for long-term growth. However, elevated leverage, rising credit-loss provisions, intense competition and a premium valuation remain key concerns.
While the company’s growth story remains compelling, these risks warrant caution in the short run. Reflecting the balance between favorable fundamentals and the challenges, Affirm currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting investors may want to wait for a more attractive entry point or additional catalysts. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.