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ICE Lags Industry, Trades at a Discount: Here's How to Play the Stock
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Key Takeaways
ICE generated record Fixed Income and Data Services revenue of $322M, up 7% year over year.
Intercontinental Exchange is investing in private credit, digital assets and tokenized securities initiatives.
ICE is embedding AI across mortgage and data platforms while managing higher operating expenses.
Shares of Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE - Free Report) have lost 31.1% over the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 20.3%. ???The company’s share price closed at $124.49 on Thursday and reached a 52-week low of $124.33.
ICE shares have declined from their August 2025 peak due to valuation compression, slower growth from the Black Knight acquisition, and elevated debt. Sentiment was further pressured by competitive threats following the approval of perpetual futures products on platforms like Kalshi.
Shares of some of its peers, like CBOE Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE - Free Report) , have increased 8.4%, whereas CME Group Inc. (CME - Free Report) and Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ - Free Report) have declined 17.5% and 12.1%, respectively, in the past year. The S&P 500 Index has gained 23.3% during this time.
Based on short-term price targets offered by 16 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $195.13 per share. The average suggests a potential 56.7% upside from the last closing price.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ICE’s Valuation
Intercontinental Exchange’s shares are trading at a discount compared with the industry. ICE’s shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings of 14.6X, lower than the industry average of 17.5X. Meanwhile, CME, Cboe Global and Nasdaq are trading at 17.95X, 17.88X and 18.39X, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ICE’s Growth Projection Encourages
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Intercontinental Exchange’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) indicates a year-over-year increase of 20.4%. The estimate for 2026 revenues is pegged at $10.99 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 10.6%.
The consensus estimates for 2027 EPS and revenues indicate an increase of 5.5% and 4.2%, respectively, from the corresponding 2026 estimates.
The expected five-year earnings growth is pegged at 12.8%, better than the industry average of 12.2%.
Optimistic Analyst Sentiment on ICE
Six of the seven analysts have raised the estimates for 2026, whereas five of the eight analysts have increased estimates for 2027 over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 has moved 3.8% and 1% north, respectively, over the same period.
Factors Favoring ICE Stock
ICE’s top line is poised to improve, driven by global data services and index business, the ICE Global Network offering, as well as solid desktop, feeds, and derivatives analytics. The company has been achieving expense synergies from strategic acquisitions, which have strengthened its portfolio and expanded its presence. As the operator of the largest mortgage network in the United States, ICE remains well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing digitization of the residential mortgage industry. The company is also benefiting from strength in its Exchange business, driven by elevated market volatility, robust risk-management demand and growing market participation.
ICE's Fixed Income and Data Services business remains a key growth driver. In the first quarter of 2026, revenues reached a record $322 million, up 7% year over year, fueled by strong net new business trends in its pricing and reference data offerings. Growing demand for proprietary data, analytics, pricing and index products continues to support recurring revenues and earnings stability. For 2026, management anticipates recurring revenue growth in the mid single-digit range, with results expected to trend toward the higher end.
ICE is investing in several emerging growth areas that could support long-term expansion. The launch of ICE Private Credit Intelligence, development of a tokenized securities platform at the NYSE and partnerships with Polymarket and OKX are expected to strengthen its position in private credit, digital assets and next-generation market infrastructure. These initiatives expand the company's addressable market and provide additional long-term growth avenues.
ICE is increasingly embedding artificial intelligence across its mortgage, data, pricing, and workflow automation platforms. Management believes AI-driven capabilities will increase platform adoption, strengthen customer relationships and create incremental monetization opportunities over time.
Risks for ICE
Total operating expenses have increased over the last several years, reflecting higher compensation and benefits, technology and communication costs, and acquisition-related integration activity. ICE guided for the second quarter of 2026, adjusted operating expenses in the range of of $1.030 billion to $1.040 billion.
ICE faces competitive and regulatory challenges that could pressure pricing, increase compliance costs, and shift trading volumes, making future growth and profitability more unpredictable.
Conclusion
ICE is poised for growth, banking on the strength of its compelling portfolio and expansive risk-management services, which ensure revenue flow, as well as strategic buyouts, a solid balance sheet, and effective capital deployment. However, rising operating expenses and volatile industry trends raise concerns.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
ICE Lags Industry, Trades at a Discount: Here's How to Play the Stock
Key Takeaways
Shares of Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE - Free Report) have lost 31.1% over the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 20.3%. ???The company’s share price closed at $124.49 on Thursday and reached a 52-week low of $124.33.
ICE shares have declined from their August 2025 peak due to valuation compression, slower growth from the Black Knight acquisition, and elevated debt. Sentiment was further pressured by competitive threats following the approval of perpetual futures products on platforms like Kalshi.
Shares of some of its peers, like CBOE Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE - Free Report) , have increased 8.4%, whereas CME Group Inc. (CME - Free Report) and Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ - Free Report) have declined 17.5% and 12.1%, respectively, in the past year. The S&P 500 Index has gained 23.3% during this time.
1-Year Price Performance: ICE, CME, CBOE, NDAQ, Industry & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ICE’s Average Target Price Suggests Upside
Based on short-term price targets offered by 16 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $195.13 per share. The average suggests a potential 56.7% upside from the last closing price.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ICE’s Valuation
Intercontinental Exchange’s shares are trading at a discount compared with the industry. ICE’s shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings of 14.6X, lower than the industry average of 17.5X. Meanwhile, CME, Cboe Global and Nasdaq are trading at 17.95X, 17.88X and 18.39X, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ICE’s Growth Projection Encourages
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Intercontinental Exchange’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) indicates a year-over-year increase of 20.4%. The estimate for 2026 revenues is pegged at $10.99 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 10.6%.
The consensus estimates for 2027 EPS and revenues indicate an increase of 5.5% and 4.2%, respectively, from the corresponding 2026 estimates.
The expected five-year earnings growth is pegged at 12.8%, better than the industry average of 12.2%.
Optimistic Analyst Sentiment on ICE
Six of the seven analysts have raised the estimates for 2026, whereas five of the eight analysts have increased estimates for 2027 over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 has moved 3.8% and 1% north, respectively, over the same period.
Factors Favoring ICE Stock
ICE’s top line is poised to improve, driven by global data services and index business, the ICE Global Network offering, as well as solid desktop, feeds, and derivatives analytics. The company has been achieving expense synergies from strategic acquisitions, which have strengthened its portfolio and expanded its presence. As the operator of the largest mortgage network in the United States, ICE remains well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing digitization of the residential mortgage industry. The company is also benefiting from strength in its Exchange business, driven by elevated market volatility, robust risk-management demand and growing market participation.
ICE's Fixed Income and Data Services business remains a key growth driver. In the first quarter of 2026, revenues reached a record $322 million, up 7% year over year, fueled by strong net new business trends in its pricing and reference data offerings. Growing demand for proprietary data, analytics, pricing and index products continues to support recurring revenues and earnings stability. For 2026, management anticipates recurring revenue growth in the mid single-digit range, with results expected to trend toward the higher end.
ICE is investing in several emerging growth areas that could support long-term expansion. The launch of ICE Private Credit Intelligence, development of a tokenized securities platform at the NYSE and partnerships with Polymarket and OKX are expected to strengthen its position in private credit, digital assets and next-generation market infrastructure. These initiatives expand the company's addressable market and provide additional long-term growth avenues.
ICE is increasingly embedding artificial intelligence across its mortgage, data, pricing, and workflow automation platforms. Management believes AI-driven capabilities will increase platform adoption, strengthen customer relationships and create incremental monetization opportunities over time.
Risks for ICE
Total operating expenses have increased over the last several years, reflecting higher compensation and benefits, technology and communication costs, and acquisition-related integration activity. ICE guided for the second quarter of 2026, adjusted operating expenses in the range of of $1.030 billion to $1.040 billion.
ICE faces competitive and regulatory challenges that could pressure pricing, increase compliance costs, and shift trading volumes, making future growth and profitability more unpredictable.
Conclusion
ICE is poised for growth, banking on the strength of its compelling portfolio and expansive risk-management services, which ensure revenue flow, as well as strategic buyouts, a solid balance sheet, and effective capital deployment. However, rising operating expenses and volatile industry trends raise concerns.
Nevertheless, favorable growth estimates, optimistic analyst sentiment, and cheaper valuations are noteworthy. It is, therefore, wise to retain this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.