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ELF Stock Outlook Hinges on Rhode Growth and Core Brand Reset in 2027
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Key Takeaways
ELF enters fiscal 2027 with more growth levers but slower momentum in its flagship brand.
Rhode topped $500M in annualized global retail sales and grew net sales more than 80%.
ELF expects fiscal 2027 net sales of $1.835B-$1.865B and adjusted EBITDA of $379M-$385M.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF - Free Report) enters fiscal 2027 with a wider platform but a more complicated investment setup.
Rhode, Naturium, e.l.f. SKIN and international expansion give the company more growth levers. The key question is whether those levers can offset slower momentum in the flagship e.l.f. brand.
ELF Has More Than One Growth Engine
e.l.f. Beauty is no longer just a low-price cosmetics story. Its portfolio now includes e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium and Well People, spanning mass beauty, prestige skin care and digital-led brands.
The shift has changed the risk profile. Non-e.l.f. brands rose from 0% to 30% of global consumption over the past three years, while skin care increased from 9% to 23%. That lowers dependence on a single product cycle and gives ELF multiple paths to growth.
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL - Free Report) remains a relevant benchmark in prestige beauty because its portfolio spans skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care. Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA - Free Report) is also central to the beauty ecosystem as a specialty retailer that connects consumers with mass, prestige and emerging brands.
Rhode Gives e.l.f. Beauty New Reach
Rhode is the clearest growth catalyst in the portfolio. On an annualized basis in fiscal 2026, the brand generated more than $500 million in global retail sales and about $390 million in net sales, with net sales rising more than 80% year over year.
Its retail start has been notable. Rhode reached the number one beauty brand ranking in Sephora North America and delivered record-breaking launches with Sephora in the United Kingdom and MECCA in Australia and New Zealand.
Distribution still leaves room for growth. Rhode is in less than 20% of Sephora’s global stores, while about 20% of its direct-to-consumer sales and 74% of social followers are outside the United States.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ELF Needs Its Core Brand to Reaccelerate
The flagship e.l.f. brand still drives the investment case. e.l.f. Cosmetics produced about $1.8 billion in fiscal 2026 global retail sales and gained 115 basis points of U.S. color cosmetics market share during the year.
That scale also makes the recent slowdown harder to ignore. e.l.f. brand global consumption moderated from high single digits in fiscal 2026 to low single digits in the final 12 weeks of the year, as spring 2026 innovation produced less lift across core items than expected.
Management is responding through pricing, innovation, international focus and leadership changes. The company cut the price of Halo Glow Skin Tint from $18 to $14, with initial tests showing a 38% lift on Amazon and a 36% lift across all retailers.
e.l.f. Beauty Faces Margin Pressure
Top-line growth is not fully flowing through to earnings. Fiscal 2026 net sales rose 25%, while adjusted EBITDA increased 13%, showing that spending and cost pressures are absorbing part of the revenue benefit.
Marketing and digital expenses were about 24% of net sales in fiscal 2026. The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is also navigating tariff exposure, inflation and a more retail-heavy Rhode channel mix, which can affect near-term profitability as the brand scales beyond direct-to-consumer sales. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The fiscal 2027 outlook still points to growth. Management expects net sales of $1.835 billion to $1.865 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $379 million to $385 million, compared with fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $335 million.
ELF looks like a balanced story rather than a straightforward momentum call. Rhode, Naturium, e.l.f. SKIN and international growth have expanded the company’s runway, but the core brand must reaccelerate for investors to regain confidence in organic growth.
The stock’s setup is also constrained by signal gaps. Specific Zacks Rank and Style Scores are not available for investors to lean on, leaving the brand reset, Rhode’s rollout and margin execution as the more useful near-term markers.
For investors, that argues for discipline. A favorable Zacks Rank and strong Style Scores can help identify stocks with better earnings-revision and style characteristics over the next one to three months, but ELF’s current case depends more on execution than on a clean quantitative read.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
ELF Stock Outlook Hinges on Rhode Growth and Core Brand Reset in 2027
Key Takeaways
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF - Free Report) enters fiscal 2027 with a wider platform but a more complicated investment setup.
Rhode, Naturium, e.l.f. SKIN and international expansion give the company more growth levers. The key question is whether those levers can offset slower momentum in the flagship e.l.f. brand.
ELF Has More Than One Growth Engine
e.l.f. Beauty is no longer just a low-price cosmetics story. Its portfolio now includes e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium and Well People, spanning mass beauty, prestige skin care and digital-led brands.
The shift has changed the risk profile. Non-e.l.f. brands rose from 0% to 30% of global consumption over the past three years, while skin care increased from 9% to 23%. That lowers dependence on a single product cycle and gives ELF multiple paths to growth.
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL - Free Report) remains a relevant benchmark in prestige beauty because its portfolio spans skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care. Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA - Free Report) is also central to the beauty ecosystem as a specialty retailer that connects consumers with mass, prestige and emerging brands.
Rhode Gives e.l.f. Beauty New Reach
Rhode is the clearest growth catalyst in the portfolio. On an annualized basis in fiscal 2026, the brand generated more than $500 million in global retail sales and about $390 million in net sales, with net sales rising more than 80% year over year.
Its retail start has been notable. Rhode reached the number one beauty brand ranking in Sephora North America and delivered record-breaking launches with Sephora in the United Kingdom and MECCA in Australia and New Zealand.
Distribution still leaves room for growth. Rhode is in less than 20% of Sephora’s global stores, while about 20% of its direct-to-consumer sales and 74% of social followers are outside the United States.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ELF Needs Its Core Brand to Reaccelerate
The flagship e.l.f. brand still drives the investment case. e.l.f. Cosmetics produced about $1.8 billion in fiscal 2026 global retail sales and gained 115 basis points of U.S. color cosmetics market share during the year.
That scale also makes the recent slowdown harder to ignore. e.l.f. brand global consumption moderated from high single digits in fiscal 2026 to low single digits in the final 12 weeks of the year, as spring 2026 innovation produced less lift across core items than expected.
Management is responding through pricing, innovation, international focus and leadership changes. The company cut the price of Halo Glow Skin Tint from $18 to $14, with initial tests showing a 38% lift on Amazon and a 36% lift across all retailers.
e.l.f. Beauty Faces Margin Pressure
Top-line growth is not fully flowing through to earnings. Fiscal 2026 net sales rose 25%, while adjusted EBITDA increased 13%, showing that spending and cost pressures are absorbing part of the revenue benefit.
Marketing and digital expenses were about 24% of net sales in fiscal 2026. The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is also navigating tariff exposure, inflation and a more retail-heavy Rhode channel mix, which can affect near-term profitability as the brand scales beyond direct-to-consumer sales. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The fiscal 2027 outlook still points to growth. Management expects net sales of $1.835 billion to $1.865 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $379 million to $385 million, compared with fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $335 million.
e.l.f. Beauty Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
e.l.f. Beauty price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | e.l.f. Beauty Quote
How ELF Stock Signals Fit the Setup
ELF looks like a balanced story rather than a straightforward momentum call. Rhode, Naturium, e.l.f. SKIN and international growth have expanded the company’s runway, but the core brand must reaccelerate for investors to regain confidence in organic growth.
The stock’s setup is also constrained by signal gaps. Specific Zacks Rank and Style Scores are not available for investors to lean on, leaving the brand reset, Rhode’s rollout and margin execution as the more useful near-term markers.
For investors, that argues for discipline. A favorable Zacks Rank and strong Style Scores can help identify stocks with better earnings-revision and style characteristics over the next one to three months, but ELF’s current case depends more on execution than on a clean quantitative read.