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Oil Prices Appear Calm. Too Calm: Global Week Ahead
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Key Takeaways
Global Oil Looks Remarkably Calm This Morning
EU Trade Chief Meets with Chinese Commerce Minister
First Fed Minutes from Kevin Warsh Out This Week
What happens across the Global Week Ahead?
Macro data releases are thinning out
Q2 earnings season hasn't kicked off yet, and
There are no big Fed policy rate decisions looming
But:
A high-stakes NATO meeting
A glimpse through Kevin Warsh's first FOMC-led meeting minutes, and
An unpredictable global oil price
…offer plenty to keep risk markets busy.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Global Oil Markets Look Calm. Too Calm for Comfort, Actually
Blink and you'd miss it. Oil futures are back to where they were before the war started in late February.
From a four-year high of $126 a barrel in May, Brent crude futures are now just above $70 a barrel, after a downward spiral whose speed has surprised everyone.
Back in 2022, this many weeks after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, front-month Brent futures were still some 13% above those pre-war levels, while the price of crude for delivery in 12 months' time was almost 10% above.
Global inventories aren't at rock bottom, but they still need replenishing after record drawdowns.
Oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, but in fits and starts. And production facilities damaged by the war aren't quite back to 100%.
The risks are building for another leg higher in crude that few right now may be factoring in.
The OPEC+ group meeting on Sunday may offer some more insight.
(2) Euro Area Macro Data? That Will Shape a Fresh View on This Major Region
The widening trade gap between China and the European Union is causing angst in Brussels, where the EU's trade chief has just met China's commerce minister.
A raft of data and developments in the coming days will put that situation into context.
German and French trade data for May is due, as well as industrial production for Germany — Europe's traditional economic powerhouse.
Production in the three months to April was already flagging, so investors and politicians will search for any signs of how the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran may have boosted the sector.
The state of manufacturing at the heart of Europe is further underscored by the situation at Volkswagen, which is considering shutting four German factories and cutting up to 100,000 jobs.
Those plans are due to be discussed at a July 9th meeting of VW's supervisory board, Reuters has reported.
(3) The First FOMC Minutes Under New Chair Warsh Come Out
Investors will seek more clarity in the coming week about the path for U.S. interest rates as they parse minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting — the first under new chair Kevin Warsh.
The June meeting minutes on Wednesday will be scrutinised for potential divisions within the central bank and policymakers' views about the influence of energy prices, which have come down significantly in recent weeks. Bets on rate hikes firmed following the meeting, which investors took as surprisingly hawkish.
Warsh himself has said he will stick firmly to the Fed's 2% inflation target and "disappoint" anyone who expects loose monetary policy.
Markets also will get early indications about a pivotal second-quarter U.S. earnings season, with reports next week from PepsiCo (PEP - Free Report) and Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) .
(4) Turkey Hosts the Leaders of NATO’s 32 Member Countries, Plus Others
Turkey hosts the leaders of NATO's 32 member countries, plus others from the Gulf and elsewhere on July 7-8 for what is shaping up to be a pivotal two-day summit for the fraying military alliance.
The last summit yielded a landmark commitment that member countries — with the exception of Spain — will spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on defense by 2035.
Now, leaders arrive in Ankara under pressure to deliver and to avert any new threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from the 77-year-old Atlantic alliance.
Away from the main money talk and the fretting about the U.S. security umbrella, there could also be news about what has been dubbed a new NATO bank championed by Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney.
There is also the deeper, more difficult question. Can an alliance built for consensus move at the speed now needed to face the current global challenges?
(5) On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Sets Monetary Policy
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its rate decision on Wednesday, where investors are betting the central bank could join its Australian counterpart in raising rates.
While some brokerages have pared back their rate-hike forecasts after the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire sent oil prices back to pre-war levels, inflation is expected to remain above the RBNZ's target band for some time.
That strengthens the case for tighter policy, though it could come at the cost of further weakness in the country's labor market.
The International Monetary Fund said New Zealand's economic recovery has been delayed by the oil-price shock and heightened global uncertainty.
Elsewhere in Asia, inflation data from China, Thailand, the Philippines and Taiwan due in the week ahead could reveal further pass-through effects from the surge in energy prices stemming from the Middle East war.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next are three Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks.
They are re-ordered by the F12M P/E valuation ratio.
I start with the most over-valued stock, and end with the cheapest stock.
(1) Bloom Energy (BE - Free Report) : This is a $271 a share stock, with a market cap of $77.5B
It is found in Zacks Alternative Energy-Other industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
F12M P/E: 136.7.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bloom Energy generates and distributes renewable energy. It supplies electricity to the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.
Bloom Energy is based in California.
(2) Ross Stores (ROST - Free Report) : This is a $213 a share stock, with a market cap of $68.4B
It is found in the Zacks Retail-Discount Stores industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
F12M P/E: 27.6.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Ross Stores operates as an off-price retailer of apparel and home accessories, primarily in the United States.
The company operates its stores under the Ross Dress for Less (Ross) and dd's DISCOUNTS names.
The company's stores are located mostly in community and neighborhood shopping centers in heavily populated urban and suburban areas.
Ross Stores primarily offers in-season, branded, and designer apparel, footwear, accessories and other home-related merchandise for everyone in the family. This format primarily targets middle-income households.
Prices offered at Ross are generally 20% to 60% below the regular prices of most department and specialty stores. dd's DISCOUNTS features more moderately-priced first-quality, in-season, name brand apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family.
These stores target moderate-income households.
The dd's DISCOUNTS stores offer products at a 20% to 70% lesser price than the moderate department and discount stores.
(3) NetEase (NTES - Free Report) : This is a $127 a share stock, with a market cap of $81.2B
It is found in the Zacks Internet-Software and Services industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
F12M P/E: 13.4.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NetEase is an Internet technology company engaged in the development of applications, services and other technologies for the Internet in China.
It provides online gaming services that include in-house developed massively multi-player online role-playing games and licensed titles.
NetEase also provides online advertising, community services, entertainment content, free e-mail services and micro-blogging services. The Company also offers wireless value-added services such as news and information content, matchmaking services, music and photos from the web that are sent over SMS, MMS, WAP, IVR and Color Ring-back Tone technologies.
NetEase formerly known as NetEase.com, Inc., is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Key Global Macro
Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are the key event this week.
On Monday, the ISM Services PMI is out for June, reaching 54.0. This is slightly below consensus expectations for 54.2. The prior reading was 54.5.
The ECB’s President LaGarde gives a speech.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision lands. A hike to 2.5% from 2.25% is what to expect here.
On Wednesday, the latest FOMC Minutes come out. The first under new Fed Chair Warsh.
On Thursday, U.S. Existing Home Sales for June come out. Look for 4.2M, in line with the prior 4.17M run rate.
On Friday, Canada’s household unemployment rate comes out. Look for 6.6% to follow the prior reading of 6.6%. Both look high to me, but at least the rate is stabilizing.
Conclusion
On July 2nd, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared a Q2 earnings update.
His five key points:
1. The overall earnings picture remains strong and broad-based.
We saw that in the last earnings season, when companies not only comfortably beat consensus estimates but also provided reassuring reads on macro and business trends despite elevated energy costs and other risks.
All of this has helped sustain a favorable revisions trend, with estimates for the current and upcoming quarters rising.
2. Total Q2 earnings for the S&P500 index are currently expected to be up +23.9% from the same period last year on +11.7% higher revenues.
11 of the 16 Zacks sectors are expected to enjoy positive earnings growth.
3. Q2 earnings estimates have been steadily going up, since the quarter got underway.
The current +23.9% Q2 EPS growth rate is up from +18% at the start of April.
Estimates have increased for 5 of the 16 Zacks sectors, including Tech, Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities, and Business Services.
4. Excluding the significant upward revisions — to Energy sector estimates?
Aggregate Q2 earnings estimates for the remainder of the S&P500 index would still be in positive territory since the start of April.
5. Bank earnings will be in focus, as Q2 earnings season takes the spotlight.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
Oil Prices Appear Calm. Too Calm: Global Week Ahead
Key Takeaways
What happens across the Global Week Ahead?
But:
…offer plenty to keep risk markets busy.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Global Oil Markets Look Calm. Too Calm for Comfort, Actually
Blink and you'd miss it. Oil futures are back to where they were before the war started in late February.
From a four-year high of $126 a barrel in May, Brent crude futures are now just above $70 a barrel, after a downward spiral whose speed has surprised everyone.
Back in 2022, this many weeks after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, front-month Brent futures were still some 13% above those pre-war levels, while the price of crude for delivery in 12 months' time was almost 10% above.
Global inventories aren't at rock bottom, but they still need replenishing after record drawdowns.
Oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, but in fits and starts. And production facilities damaged by the war aren't quite back to 100%.
The risks are building for another leg higher in crude that few right now may be factoring in.
The OPEC+ group meeting on Sunday may offer some more insight.
(2) Euro Area Macro Data? That Will Shape a Fresh View on This Major Region
The widening trade gap between China and the European Union is causing angst in Brussels, where the EU's trade chief has just met China's commerce minister.
A raft of data and developments in the coming days will put that situation into context.
German and French trade data for May is due, as well as industrial production for Germany — Europe's traditional economic powerhouse.
Production in the three months to April was already flagging, so investors and politicians will search for any signs of how the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran may have boosted the sector.
The state of manufacturing at the heart of Europe is further underscored by the situation at Volkswagen, which is considering shutting four German factories and cutting up to 100,000 jobs.
Those plans are due to be discussed at a July 9th meeting of VW's supervisory board, Reuters has reported.
(3) The First FOMC Minutes Under New Chair Warsh Come Out
Investors will seek more clarity in the coming week about the path for U.S. interest rates as they parse minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting — the first under new chair Kevin Warsh.
The June meeting minutes on Wednesday will be scrutinised for potential divisions within the central bank and policymakers' views about the influence of energy prices, which have come down significantly in recent weeks. Bets on rate hikes firmed following the meeting, which investors took as surprisingly hawkish.
Warsh himself has said he will stick firmly to the Fed's 2% inflation target and "disappoint" anyone who expects loose monetary policy.
Markets also will get early indications about a pivotal second-quarter U.S. earnings season, with reports next week from PepsiCo (PEP - Free Report) and Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) .
(4) Turkey Hosts the Leaders of NATO’s 32 Member Countries, Plus Others
Turkey hosts the leaders of NATO's 32 member countries, plus others from the Gulf and elsewhere on July 7-8 for what is shaping up to be a pivotal two-day summit for the fraying military alliance.
The last summit yielded a landmark commitment that member countries — with the exception of Spain — will spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on defense by 2035.
Now, leaders arrive in Ankara under pressure to deliver and to avert any new threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from the 77-year-old Atlantic alliance.
Away from the main money talk and the fretting about the U.S. security umbrella, there could also be news about what has been dubbed a new NATO bank championed by Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney.
There is also the deeper, more difficult question. Can an alliance built for consensus move at the speed now needed to face the current global challenges?
(5) On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Sets Monetary Policy
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its rate decision on Wednesday, where investors are betting the central bank could join its Australian counterpart in raising rates.
While some brokerages have pared back their rate-hike forecasts after the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire sent oil prices back to pre-war levels, inflation is expected to remain above the RBNZ's target band for some time.
That strengthens the case for tighter policy, though it could come at the cost of further weakness in the country's labor market.
The International Monetary Fund said New Zealand's economic recovery has been delayed by the oil-price shock and heightened global uncertainty.
Elsewhere in Asia, inflation data from China, Thailand, the Philippines and Taiwan due in the week ahead could reveal further pass-through effects from the surge in energy prices stemming from the Middle East war.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next are three Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks.
They are re-ordered by the F12M P/E valuation ratio.
I start with the most over-valued stock, and end with the cheapest stock.
(1) Bloom Energy (BE - Free Report) : This is a $271 a share stock, with a market cap of $77.5B
It is found in Zacks Alternative Energy-Other industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
F12M P/E: 136.7.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bloom Energy generates and distributes renewable energy. It supplies electricity to the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.
Bloom Energy is based in California.
(2) Ross Stores (ROST - Free Report) : This is a $213 a share stock, with a market cap of $68.4B
It is found in the Zacks Retail-Discount Stores industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
F12M P/E: 27.6.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Ross Stores operates as an off-price retailer of apparel and home accessories, primarily in the United States.
The company operates its stores under the Ross Dress for Less (Ross) and dd's DISCOUNTS names.
The company's stores are located mostly in community and neighborhood shopping centers in heavily populated urban and suburban areas.
Ross Stores primarily offers in-season, branded, and designer apparel, footwear, accessories and other home-related merchandise for everyone in the family. This format primarily targets middle-income households.
Prices offered at Ross are generally 20% to 60% below the regular prices of most department and specialty stores. dd's DISCOUNTS features more moderately-priced first-quality, in-season, name brand apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family.
These stores target moderate-income households.
The dd's DISCOUNTS stores offer products at a 20% to 70% lesser price than the moderate department and discount stores.
(3) NetEase (NTES - Free Report) : This is a $127 a share stock, with a market cap of $81.2B
It is found in the Zacks Internet-Software and Services industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
F12M P/E: 13.4.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NetEase is an Internet technology company engaged in the development of applications, services and other technologies for the Internet in China.
It provides online gaming services that include in-house developed massively multi-player online role-playing games and licensed titles.
NetEase also provides online advertising, community services, entertainment content, free e-mail services and micro-blogging services. The Company also offers wireless value-added services such as news and information content, matchmaking services, music and photos from the web that are sent over SMS, MMS, WAP, IVR and Color Ring-back Tone technologies.
NetEase formerly known as NetEase.com, Inc., is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Key Global Macro
Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are the key event this week.
On Monday, the ISM Services PMI is out for June, reaching 54.0. This is slightly below consensus expectations for 54.2. The prior reading was 54.5.
The ECB’s President LaGarde gives a speech.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision lands. A hike to 2.5% from 2.25% is what to expect here.
On Wednesday, the latest FOMC Minutes come out. The first under new Fed Chair Warsh.
On Thursday, U.S. Existing Home Sales for June come out. Look for 4.2M, in line with the prior 4.17M run rate.
On Friday, Canada’s household unemployment rate comes out. Look for 6.6% to follow the prior reading of 6.6%. Both look high to me, but at least the rate is stabilizing.
Conclusion
On July 2nd, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared a Q2 earnings update.
His five key points:
1. The overall earnings picture remains strong and broad-based.
We saw that in the last earnings season, when companies not only comfortably beat consensus estimates but also provided reassuring reads on macro and business trends despite elevated energy costs and other risks.
All of this has helped sustain a favorable revisions trend, with estimates for the current and upcoming quarters rising.
2. Total Q2 earnings for the S&P500 index are currently expected to be up +23.9% from the same period last year on +11.7% higher revenues.
11 of the 16 Zacks sectors are expected to enjoy positive earnings growth.
3. Q2 earnings estimates have been steadily going up, since the quarter got underway.
The current +23.9% Q2 EPS growth rate is up from +18% at the start of April.
Estimates have increased for 5 of the 16 Zacks sectors, including Tech, Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities, and Business Services.
4. Excluding the significant upward revisions — to Energy sector estimates?
Aggregate Q2 earnings estimates for the remainder of the S&P500 index would still be in positive territory since the start of April.
5. Bank earnings will be in focus, as Q2 earnings season takes the spotlight.
JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) , Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) , Citigroup (C - Free Report) and Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) kick off the June-quarter reporting cycle for the Finance sector on July 14th.
Enjoy this July trading week.
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist