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Higher Fee Income, Loan Growth Likely to Support BNY's Q2 Earnings
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Key Takeaways
BNY is expected to post higher Q2 revenues, with earnings seen up 13.4% y/y.
BNY's fee income may benefit from higher markets and stronger client activity.
BNY's Q2 expenses are expected to rise due to technology upgrades, inflation and transformation efforts.
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 15, before market open. The company’s quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have increased on a year-over-year basis.
In the last reported quarter, BNY’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were primarily aided by a rise in fee revenues and net interest income (NII). Growth in the assets under custody and/or administration, and assets under management (AUM) balances further supported the results.
BNY has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 10.5%.
The consensus estimate for the company’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.20 per share, which has been revised marginally higher over the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a rise of 13.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for quarterly sales is pegged at $5.38 billion, implying 7.1% year-over-year growth.
Key Factors Impacting BNY’s Q2 Performance
Fee Revenues: BNY’s investment services fees (which constitute more than 50% of its total revenues) are expected to have benefited in the to-be-reported quarter from higher global equity markets, which likely boosted AUC/A. Strong client activity, healthy corporate trust demand, and continued momentum in securities servicing and collateral management businesses are also expected to have aided growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment services fees is pegged at $2.78 billion, suggesting a rise of 7.7% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
Likewise, BNY’s investment management and performance fees are expected to have benefited from higher average AUM, driven by favorable equity markets and a weaker U.S. dollar. However, net outflows in certain strategies and a shift toward lower-fee products are likely to partly offset these gains. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter investment management and performance fees is $790 million, indicating a 4.2% year-over-year increase.
The consensus mark for financing-related fees stands at $55 million, which indicates a 7.8% year-over-year rise. The consensus estimate for distribution and servicing fees is pegged at $37.6 million, implying a 4.3% year-over-year rise.
However, the consensus estimate for foreign exchange revenues stands at $198.7 million, suggesting a 6.7% decline from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
The consensus estimate for total fees and other revenues is $4.05 billion, indicating a rise of 5.8% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
NII: The interest rate environment remained supportive for BNY’s NII in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve paused its rate-cutting cycle and signaled the possibility of a rate hike later this year as inflation remains stubbornly above its target. Sustained healthy lending yields have been favorable for banks, including BNY.
Moreover, building on the momentum seen in the first quarter, BNY’s lending activity is expected to have strengthened further in the to-be-reported quarter. According to the Federal Reserve’s latest data, overall loan demand was solid in the quarter.
Thus, robust loan growth, combined with easing deposit and funding costs, is likely to have supported BNY’s NII growth. The consensus mark for NII is pegged at $1.36 billion, indicating a 13.3% year-over-year rise.
Expenses: Because of higher restructuring charges and buyouts, BNY’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. In the second quarter, overall costs are expected to have increased, driven by inflationary pressure, technology upgrades and a multi-year transformation plan.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for BNY
According to our quantitative model, the chances of BNY beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
State Street (STT - Free Report) is scheduled to announce second-quarter 2026 results on July 16. The company has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +0.35% at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for State Street have been revised upward to $3.30 over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares (PB - Free Report) is +1.76% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PB’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.54 per share.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Higher Fee Income, Loan Growth Likely to Support BNY's Q2 Earnings
Key Takeaways
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 15, before market open. The company’s quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have increased on a year-over-year basis.
In the last reported quarter, BNY’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were primarily aided by a rise in fee revenues and net interest income (NII). Growth in the assets under custody and/or administration, and assets under management (AUM) balances further supported the results.
BNY has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 10.5%.
BNY Price and EPS Surprise
BNY price-eps-surprise | BNY Quote
The consensus estimate for the company’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.20 per share, which has been revised marginally higher over the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a rise of 13.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for quarterly sales is pegged at $5.38 billion, implying 7.1% year-over-year growth.
Key Factors Impacting BNY’s Q2 Performance
Fee Revenues: BNY’s investment services fees (which constitute more than 50% of its total revenues) are expected to have benefited in the to-be-reported quarter from higher global equity markets, which likely boosted AUC/A. Strong client activity, healthy corporate trust demand, and continued momentum in securities servicing and collateral management businesses are also expected to have aided growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment services fees is pegged at $2.78 billion, suggesting a rise of 7.7% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
Likewise, BNY’s investment management and performance fees are expected to have benefited from higher average AUM, driven by favorable equity markets and a weaker U.S. dollar. However, net outflows in certain strategies and a shift toward lower-fee products are likely to partly offset these gains. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter investment management and performance fees is $790 million, indicating a 4.2% year-over-year increase.
The consensus mark for financing-related fees stands at $55 million, which indicates a 7.8% year-over-year rise. The consensus estimate for distribution and servicing fees is pegged at $37.6 million, implying a 4.3% year-over-year rise.
However, the consensus estimate for foreign exchange revenues stands at $198.7 million, suggesting a 6.7% decline from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
The consensus estimate for total fees and other revenues is $4.05 billion, indicating a rise of 5.8% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
NII: The interest rate environment remained supportive for BNY’s NII in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve paused its rate-cutting cycle and signaled the possibility of a rate hike later this year as inflation remains stubbornly above its target. Sustained healthy lending yields have been favorable for banks, including BNY.
Moreover, building on the momentum seen in the first quarter, BNY’s lending activity is expected to have strengthened further in the to-be-reported quarter. According to the Federal Reserve’s latest data, overall loan demand was solid in the quarter.
Thus, robust loan growth, combined with easing deposit and funding costs, is likely to have supported BNY’s NII growth. The consensus mark for NII is pegged at $1.36 billion, indicating a 13.3% year-over-year rise.
Expenses: Because of higher restructuring charges and buyouts, BNY’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. In the second quarter, overall costs are expected to have increased, driven by inflationary pressure, technology upgrades and a multi-year transformation plan.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for BNY
According to our quantitative model, the chances of BNY beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BNY is +0.05%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Other Bank Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
State Street (STT - Free Report) is scheduled to announce second-quarter 2026 results on July 16. The company has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +0.35% at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for State Street have been revised upward to $3.30 over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for Prosperity Bancshares (PB - Free Report) is +1.76% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PB’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.54 per share.