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Alcoa Gears Up to Post Q2 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Alcoa is expected to post 30.2% higher Q2 revenues and sharply higher earnings versus last year.
AA's Aluminum sales may jump on strong demand and smelter restarts across Spain, Brazil and Norway.
Alcoa's Alumina business faces shipment delays, while higher costs and a stronger U.S. dollar weigh.
Alcoa Corporation (AA - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line from last year’s quarterly reading when it reports second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 16, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.93 billion, indicating an increase of 30.2% from the prior-year’s quarterly figure.
The bottom line of this leading producer of bauxite, alumina and aluminum products is also expected to have increased from the earlier year’s quarterly figure. Over the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for earnings per share grew 3%. The figure indicates a surge of 518% from last year’s quarterly level.
The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 35.3%, on average, beating estimates all through.
Key Factors to Note Ahead of AA’s Results
Healthy demand across packaging, electrical and transportation end markets is expected to have benefited Alcoa’s Aluminum segment in the second quarter of 2026. Also, the restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain, Alumar in Brazil and Lista in Norway is likely to have aided the segment’s sales.
For the second quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aluminum segment’s total sales is pegged at $3.34 billion, indicating a 70.4% rise from the year-ago reported number.
Alcoa’s Alumina segment is expected to have benefited from higher alumina shipments driven by the restart of the San Ciprián smelter. However, the segment’s results are expected to put up a weak show due to shipment delays in Australia arising from the Middle East war and Cyclone Narelle. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s third-party sales is pegged at $490 million, implying a 41.9% decrease from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s total sales is pegged at $976 million, indicating a 35.7% decline from the year-ago number.
Nevertheless, synergistic gains from partnerships and acquisitions made by the company are expected to have boosted revenues. In March 2025, Alcoa and IGNIS EQT entered into a joint venture agreement. Under the agreement, AA owns 75% of the equity and continues to operate the San Ciprián production site. In August 2024, Alcoa acquired Alumina Limited. This acquisition bolstered its position as a pure-play and upstream aluminum company worldwide.
However, the escalating cost of sales due to higher input costs poses a threat to Alcoa’s bottom line.
Given the company’s extensive geographic presence, its operations are subject to global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds. A stronger U.S. dollar is likely to have hurt Alcoa's overseas business in the quarter.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AA this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: AA has an Earnings ESP of -2.08%, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.36 per share, lower than the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.41. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: AA presently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Buy).
Here are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in this reporting cycle.
Crane Company (CR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.73% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 28.
Crane’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being 11.3%.
Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.61% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 30.
Ingersoll Rand’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters while matching the mark in two, the average surprise being 2.4%.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.31% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 28.
Illinois Tool’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.8%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Alcoa Gears Up to Post Q2 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Alcoa Corporation (AA - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line from last year’s quarterly reading when it reports second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 16, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.93 billion, indicating an increase of 30.2% from the prior-year’s quarterly figure.
The bottom line of this leading producer of bauxite, alumina and aluminum products is also expected to have increased from the earlier year’s quarterly figure. Over the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for earnings per share grew 3%. The figure indicates a surge of 518% from last year’s quarterly level.
The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 35.3%, on average, beating estimates all through.
Key Factors to Note Ahead of AA’s Results
Healthy demand across packaging, electrical and transportation end markets is expected to have benefited Alcoa’s Aluminum segment in the second quarter of 2026. Also, the restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain, Alumar in Brazil and Lista in Norway is likely to have aided the segment’s sales.
For the second quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aluminum segment’s total sales is pegged at $3.34 billion, indicating a 70.4% rise from the year-ago reported number.
Alcoa’s Alumina segment is expected to have benefited from higher alumina shipments driven by the restart of the San Ciprián smelter. However, the segment’s results are expected to put up a weak show due to shipment delays in Australia arising from the Middle East war and Cyclone Narelle. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s third-party sales is pegged at $490 million, implying a 41.9% decrease from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s total sales is pegged at $976 million, indicating a 35.7% decline from the year-ago number.
Nevertheless, synergistic gains from partnerships and acquisitions made by the company are expected to have boosted revenues. In March 2025, Alcoa and IGNIS EQT entered into a joint venture agreement. Under the agreement, AA owns 75% of the equity and continues to operate the San Ciprián production site. In August 2024, Alcoa acquired Alumina Limited. This acquisition bolstered its position as a pure-play and upstream aluminum company worldwide.
However, the escalating cost of sales due to higher input costs poses a threat to Alcoa’s bottom line.
Given the company’s extensive geographic presence, its operations are subject to global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds. A stronger U.S. dollar is likely to have hurt Alcoa's overseas business in the quarter.
Alcoa Price and EPS Surprise
Alcoa price-eps-surprise | Alcoa Quote
Earnings Whispers for AA
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AA this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: AA has an Earnings ESP of -2.08%, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.36 per share, lower than the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.41. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: AA presently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Buy).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in this reporting cycle.
Crane Company (CR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.73% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 28.
Crane’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being 11.3%.
Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.61% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 30.
Ingersoll Rand’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters while matching the mark in two, the average surprise being 2.4%.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.31% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 28.
Illinois Tool’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.8%.