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CMG’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.7%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of CMG
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 32 cents, indicating a decline of 3% from 33 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $3.32 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 8.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape CMG’s Quarterly Results
Chipotle’s second-quarter performance is likely to have been supported by menu innovation, stronger customer engagement and continued restaurant expansion. The company anticipated comparable restaurant sales growth of approximately 1% in the quarter under review. Menu pricing of about 1.5% and a broadly flat sales mix are also expected to have supported the top line. The return of Chipotle Honey Chicken and continued demand for Cilantro Lime Sauce are likely to have aided transactions and average check.
The refreshed Chipotle Rewards program is expected to have supported customer acquisition, re-engagement and visit frequency. Following the program’s April relaunch, the company recorded a nearly 25% increase in daily enrollments. The continued rollout of high-efficiency equipment is likely to have aided CMG’s performance in the second quarter.
However, elevated input costs are likely to have pressured profitability. Chipotle anticipated cost of sales of approximately 30% of revenues in the quarter to be reported, reflecting mid-single-digit inflation and higher avocado, dairy and beef costs. Labor costs were expected to remain in the low-25% range, with wage inflation in the low-single digits.
Continued investments in technology, personnel and restaurant operations are also likely to have constrained margin expansion in the to-be-reported quarter. Our model predicts second-quarter restaurant-level margins to decline 240 basis points year over year to 25%.
What Our Model Says About CMG Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP for CMG: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of +0.84%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Chipotle’s Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few other stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
In the to-be-reported quarter, BJRI’s earnings are expected to decline 10.3%. BJRI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 136%.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.54% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 35% year-over-year increase. Sweetgreen’s earnings missed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average miss being 42.4%.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected to register a 0.9% year-over-year increase. CAKE’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 6.7%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Chipotle to Post Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29.
CMG’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.7%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of CMG
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 32 cents, indicating a decline of 3% from 33 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $3.32 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 8.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Quote
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape CMG’s Quarterly Results
Chipotle’s second-quarter performance is likely to have been supported by menu innovation, stronger customer engagement and continued restaurant expansion. The company anticipated comparable restaurant sales growth of approximately 1% in the quarter under review. Menu pricing of about 1.5% and a broadly flat sales mix are also expected to have supported the top line. The return of Chipotle Honey Chicken and continued demand for Cilantro Lime Sauce are likely to have aided transactions and average check.
The refreshed Chipotle Rewards program is expected to have supported customer acquisition, re-engagement and visit frequency. Following the program’s April relaunch, the company recorded a nearly 25% increase in daily enrollments. The continued rollout of high-efficiency equipment is likely to have aided CMG’s performance in the second quarter.
However, elevated input costs are likely to have pressured profitability. Chipotle anticipated cost of sales of approximately 30% of revenues in the quarter to be reported, reflecting mid-single-digit inflation and higher avocado, dairy and beef costs. Labor costs were expected to remain in the low-25% range, with wage inflation in the low-single digits.
Continued investments in technology, personnel and restaurant operations are also likely to have constrained margin expansion in the to-be-reported quarter. Our model predicts second-quarter restaurant-level margins to decline 240 basis points year over year to 25%.
What Our Model Says About CMG Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP for CMG: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of +0.84%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Chipotle’s Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few other stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.51% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, BJRI’s earnings are expected to decline 10.3%. BJRI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 136%.
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.54% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 35% year-over-year increase. Sweetgreen’s earnings missed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average miss being 42.4%.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected to register a 0.9% year-over-year increase. CAKE’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 6.7%.