Camden Property Trust (CPT Quick QuoteCPT - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 30, after market close. The company’s quarterly results are likely to witness a year-over-year decline in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this residential real estate investment trust (REIT) reported FFO per share of $1.70, delivering a surprise of 1.80%. Results reflected higher same-property net operating income (NOI).

In the preceding four quarters, CPT’s FFO per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions, with the average beat being 1.18%. The graph below depicts this surprise history:

Camden Property Trust Price and EPS Surprise

Camden Property Trust price-eps-surprise | Camden Property Trust Quote

In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. apartment market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that might have contributed to its second-quarter 2026 performance.

US Apartment Market in Q2

The U.S. multifamily market entered the second half of 2026 with a clearer recovery taking shape, as strong renter demand and a rapidly shrinking supply pipeline began translating into lower vacancy and improving rent growth.

According to a Cushman & Wakefield report, net absorption reached roughly 124,600 units, up from 83,500 units in the first quarter and 8% above the prior year, making it the fifth-strongest quarter in nearly 25 years. The supply picture also became more favorable. Approximately 88,000 units were delivered during the quarter, down 27% year over year. Around 475,000 units remained under construction at quarter-end, equal to just 3.5% of existing inventory.

Improving demand and slowing supply pushed the national vacancy rate down 35 basis points quarter over quarter to 8.9%, its first move below 9% since 2024. On a trailing four-quarter basis, absorption of approximately 362,000 units exceeded deliveries of about 358,000 units for the first time since early 2022, indicating vacancy is likely to have passed its cyclical peak. The recovery was particularly pronounced in previously overbuilt markets: Austin; Charleston, SC; Savannah, GA; Huntsville, AL; Salt Lake City, UT, and Colorado Springs recorded some of the largest quarterly vacancy declines.

Rent growth remains modest but is beginning to improve. National asking rents reached approximately $1,945 per month, up 1.5% year over year, compared with 1.1% growth in the first quarter. The Bay Area led the recovery, with San Francisco rents rising 13%, San Jose 7% and the East Bay 4.8%. Norfolk, VA; Toledo, OH; Reno, NV, and Boise, ID, also posted strong gains.

High-supply markets remained softer, with rents still declining in Austin and Sarasota, FL, although the pace of those declines moderated as excess supply was absorbed. Overall, the market appears to be shifting from stabilization into an occupancy-led recovery, with broader rent growth likely as the construction pipeline continues to shrink.

Factors at Play for Camden Property and Q2 Projections

Camden is expected to have benefited from gradually improving apartment fundamentals as peak leasing season gained momentum and new supply continued to moderate across its Sun Belt markets. April occupancy increased to approximately 95.4% from 95.1% in the first quarter, while blended lease rates improved by about 100 basis points sequentially. Strong resident retention, historically low turnover and renewal offers in the mid-3% range are likely to have supported revenue stability, although seasonal expense pressure, including higher repair and maintenance costs and annual merit increases, may have weighed on same-store NOI and earnings growth.

For the second quarter, management guided to core FFO of $1.65-$1.69 per share, down approximately $0.03 sequentially at the midpoint. The decline is expected to reflect a roughly $0.04 reduction in same-store NOI, as improving revenues are more than offset by seasonal repair and maintenance costs, and annual merit increases, partly cushioned by $0.01 of incremental non-same-store NOI from acquisitions.

For the second quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPT’s revenues currently stands at $391.7 million, implying a 1.2% decline from the year-ago reported number.

However, before the second-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has been revised southward by a cent to $1.67 over the past week, which lies within the guided range and shows a decline of 1.8% year over year.

Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for CPT:

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Camden this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.

Camden currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.78%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the broader REIT sector — Extra Space Storage (EXR Quick QuoteEXR - Free Report) and Highwoods Properties (HIW Quick QuoteHIW - Free Report) — you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report an FFO beat this quarter.

Extra Space Storage is slated to report quarterly numbers on July 28. EXR has an Earnings ESP of +0.39% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Highwoods Properties is slated to report quarterly numbers on July 28. HIW has an Earnings ESP of +0.47% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.