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MAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average negative surprise being 1.6%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAT
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 3 cents, down 84.2% year over year.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.08 billion. The metric indicates a gain of 6% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Factors Likely to Shape Mattel’s Q2 Results
Mattel’s second-quarter 2026 top line is likely to have benefited from sustained strength in several high-performing brands and healthy consumer demand. Hot Wheels is expected to have remained a key growth engine, supported by continued momentum in vehicles, while UNO, Monster High, Masters of the Universe and the recently launched Mattel Brick Shop are likely to have contributed meaningfully.
Partner brands such as Toy Story and WWE, along with expanding digital game licensing revenue and the consolidation of Mattel163, are also expected to have provided incremental sales support. Management noted that consumer demand remained healthy, the toy industry continued to expand, and second-quarter sales trends had accelerated from the first quarter.
Another driver of second-quarter revenue is likely to have been the improving retailer ordering patterns in North America after prior disruptions, coupled with continued strength across international markets. The company expects North America to return to growth as retailer inventory movements normalize, while shipments are anticipated to have accelerated during the quarter. Upcoming entertainment releases, particularly the Masters of the Universe movie and related product launches, robust demand for Mattel Brick Shop, expanding action figures and games and ongoing investments in digital gaming and brand-led initiatives are also expected to have supported revenue growth.
Mattel’s bottom line in the second quarter is likely to have remained under pressure from elevated tariff-related costs, inflation and unfavorable foreign exchange movements, even though management expects sequential gross margin improvement. Higher spending on strategic growth initiatives, including digital games, technology and infrastructure, along with increased advertising and marketing investments tied to product launches and entertainment initiatives, may also have weighed on profitability. While cost-saving programs and tariff mitigation efforts should have provided some relief, margins are expected to have remained below the company's full-year target during the quarter.
What Our Model Unveils About MAT
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mattel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. That is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MAT: Mattel has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Mattel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Life Time Group is expected to register a 21.6% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. LTH reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 10.9%.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Marriott Vacations earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 1%. VAC reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 0.7%.
Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Cinemark’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 57.1%. CNK reported lower-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average negative surprise being 20.4%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Mattel Gears Up for Q2 Earnings: Here's What Could Drive Results
Key Takeaways
Mattel, Inc. (MAT - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 4, after the closing bell.
MAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with the average negative surprise being 1.6%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAT
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 3 cents, down 84.2% year over year.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.08 billion. The metric indicates a gain of 6% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Factors Likely to Shape Mattel’s Q2 Results
Mattel’s second-quarter 2026 top line is likely to have benefited from sustained strength in several high-performing brands and healthy consumer demand. Hot Wheels is expected to have remained a key growth engine, supported by continued momentum in vehicles, while UNO, Monster High, Masters of the Universe and the recently launched Mattel Brick Shop are likely to have contributed meaningfully.
Partner brands such as Toy Story and WWE, along with expanding digital game licensing revenue and the consolidation of Mattel163, are also expected to have provided incremental sales support. Management noted that consumer demand remained healthy, the toy industry continued to expand, and second-quarter sales trends had accelerated from the first quarter.
Another driver of second-quarter revenue is likely to have been the improving retailer ordering patterns in North America after prior disruptions, coupled with continued strength across international markets. The company expects North America to return to growth as retailer inventory movements normalize, while shipments are anticipated to have accelerated during the quarter. Upcoming entertainment releases, particularly the Masters of the Universe movie and related product launches, robust demand for Mattel Brick Shop, expanding action figures and games and ongoing investments in digital gaming and brand-led initiatives are also expected to have supported revenue growth.
Mattel’s bottom line in the second quarter is likely to have remained under pressure from elevated tariff-related costs, inflation and unfavorable foreign exchange movements, even though management expects sequential gross margin improvement. Higher spending on strategic growth initiatives, including digital games, technology and infrastructure, along with increased advertising and marketing investments tied to product launches and entertainment initiatives, may also have weighed on profitability. While cost-saving programs and tariff mitigation efforts should have provided some relief, margins are expected to have remained below the company's full-year target during the quarter.
What Our Model Unveils About MAT
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mattel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. That is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MAT: Mattel has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Mattel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Mattel, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Mattel, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Mattel, Inc. Quote
Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.12% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Life Time Group is expected to register a 21.6% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. LTH reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 10.9%.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Marriott Vacations earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 1%. VAC reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 0.7%.
Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
Cinemark’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 57.1%. CNK reported lower-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average negative surprise being 20.4%.