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Pre-Markets Up on De-escalation of Middle East War
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Another busy day with pre-market futures way up this morning — it’s days like these where you pat yourself on the back for not having taken all of August off. Following triple-digit gains on the major indexes yesterday, we’re up another +559 points on the Dow, +221 on the Nasdaq and +6 on the S&P 500.
Spot oil prices dial back further — $77 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $81/bbl on Brent crude — on renewed hope that a deal between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Investors do not afford themselves any “Lucy and the football” cynicism; one of these days, a peace agreement might actually stick — and everyone betting this way will have a big head start. Bond yields cooled a couple basis points from a day ago: +4.66% on the 10-year, +4.21% on the 2-year.
June Trade Deficit Slightly Deeper than Expected
The U.S. Trade Balance for June came in at a deficit of -$73.3 billion, slightly worse than the -$72.9 billion projected, but a nice improvement month over month — -$77.6 billion reported for May, and well off the all-time low -$133 billion back in March of 2025. Both Imports and Exports lightened their loads compared to the prior month.
Q2 Earnings Parade: CAT, MCD, BP & More
Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) shares are up +11.3% at this hour, giving a big boost to the blue-chip Dow index. Earnings of $8.17 per share amounted to a +30.72% earnings beat, as the company continues to benefit from the physical data center buildout trend. The stock is still a ways from the late-June all-time highs above $1000 per share, but a strong showing this morning, nevertheless.
McDonald’s (MCD - Free Report) outperformed bottom-line estimates in its Q2 this morning by 6 cents to $3.38 per share. Revenues came in slightly below expectations, however, with overall same-store sales coming in-line overall, with some weakness in U.S. sales. Shares are up slightly, but still down double-digits, year to date.
BP’s (BP - Free Report) Q2 showed a solid bottom-line beat, with earnings of $2.22 per share versus $1.98 forecast, for a +12% earnings surprise. The oil & gas supermajor plans to sell off its North Sea business, and shares are selling off a bit: -1.4% at this hour, but still up more than +25% year to date.
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM - Free Report) added to its strong 2026 performance with a +29.6% earnings beat: $1.84 per share versus $1.42 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues came in a tad light, but biofuels showed promise. Shares are up +2.6% this morning, adding to its +35% gains year to date.
On the other side, Spotify (SPOT - Free Report) disappointed with a -7.34% earnings surprise this morning — $3.03 per share versus $3.27 projected — and shares are down -6.2% in early market trading. This takes down the stock further from its -16% losses since the start of the year.
After the closing bell this afternoon, we expect earnings results from chip giant AMD (AMD - Free Report) , biopharma major Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and travel platform Booking.com (BKNG - Free Report) , among many others. We continue with the busiest week of Q2 earnings season even as many of the marquee names have already reported.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
The first of the “Jobs Week” data hits the tape after the opening bell today, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June. Estimates have rolled back slightly to 7.4 million from 7.6 million job openings reported a month ago. Job Quits remain subdued, keeping with the “low hire/low fire” labor market.
Factory Orders for June are expected to come in positive again, to +0.3%, after posting a negative -1.3% for May, which was the first down month of 2026. A big drop in non-defense aircraft orders skewed the numbers a bit a month ago. That said, if the headline number disappoints and comes in negative again, it will be the first time we’ve seen back-to-back negative prints since last summer.
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Pre-Markets Up on De-escalation of Middle East War
Another busy day with pre-market futures way up this morning — it’s days like these where you pat yourself on the back for not having taken all of August off. Following triple-digit gains on the major indexes yesterday, we’re up another +559 points on the Dow, +221 on the Nasdaq and +6 on the S&P 500.
Spot oil prices dial back further — $77 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $81/bbl on Brent crude — on renewed hope that a deal between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Investors do not afford themselves any “Lucy and the football” cynicism; one of these days, a peace agreement might actually stick — and everyone betting this way will have a big head start. Bond yields cooled a couple basis points from a day ago: +4.66% on the 10-year, +4.21% on the 2-year.
June Trade Deficit Slightly Deeper than Expected
The U.S. Trade Balance for June came in at a deficit of -$73.3 billion, slightly worse than the -$72.9 billion projected, but a nice improvement month over month — -$77.6 billion reported for May, and well off the all-time low -$133 billion back in March of 2025. Both Imports and Exports lightened their loads compared to the prior month.
Q2 Earnings Parade: CAT, MCD, BP & More
Caterpillar (CAT - Free Report) shares are up +11.3% at this hour, giving a big boost to the blue-chip Dow index. Earnings of $8.17 per share amounted to a +30.72% earnings beat, as the company continues to benefit from the physical data center buildout trend. The stock is still a ways from the late-June all-time highs above $1000 per share, but a strong showing this morning, nevertheless.
McDonald’s (MCD - Free Report) outperformed bottom-line estimates in its Q2 this morning by 6 cents to $3.38 per share. Revenues came in slightly below expectations, however, with overall same-store sales coming in-line overall, with some weakness in U.S. sales. Shares are up slightly, but still down double-digits, year to date.
BP’s (BP - Free Report) Q2 showed a solid bottom-line beat, with earnings of $2.22 per share versus $1.98 forecast, for a +12% earnings surprise. The oil & gas supermajor plans to sell off its North Sea business, and shares are selling off a bit: -1.4% at this hour, but still up more than +25% year to date.
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM - Free Report) added to its strong 2026 performance with a +29.6% earnings beat: $1.84 per share versus $1.42 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues came in a tad light, but biofuels showed promise. Shares are up +2.6% this morning, adding to its +35% gains year to date.
On the other side, Spotify (SPOT - Free Report) disappointed with a -7.34% earnings surprise this morning — $3.03 per share versus $3.27 projected — and shares are down -6.2% in early market trading. This takes down the stock further from its -16% losses since the start of the year.
After the closing bell this afternoon, we expect earnings results from chip giant AMD (AMD - Free Report) , biopharma major Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) and travel platform Booking.com (BKNG - Free Report) , among many others. We continue with the busiest week of Q2 earnings season even as many of the marquee names have already reported.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
The first of the “Jobs Week” data hits the tape after the opening bell today, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June. Estimates have rolled back slightly to 7.4 million from 7.6 million job openings reported a month ago. Job Quits remain subdued, keeping with the “low hire/low fire” labor market.
Factory Orders for June are expected to come in positive again, to +0.3%, after posting a negative -1.3% for May, which was the first down month of 2026. A big drop in non-defense aircraft orders skewed the numbers a bit a month ago. That said, if the headline number disappoints and comes in negative again, it will be the first time we’ve seen back-to-back negative prints since last summer.