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3 Reasons to Hold Netflix Stock Despite a 20.9% YTD Decline
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Key Takeaways
Netflix delivered $12.6B in Q2 revenues, up 13%, while 2026 margin guidance remains at 31.5%.
Netflix generated $1.5B in Q2 free cash flow and repurchased a record $4.7B of stock.
Advertising revenues are tracking toward 43B in 2026, while live sports and content extend into 2027.
Netflix (NFLX - Free Report) shares have plunged 20.9% year to date, a decline steep enough to test the patience of long-term holders. Shares of Netflix have underperformed the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector's decline of 7.5%
Yet a close reading of the company's own second-quarter 2026 disclosures suggests the pullback has more to do with sentiment and rich starting valuation than with any breakdown in the underlying business.
Revenues, margins, cash generation and the forward content calendar all point in a steady, upward direction, which is why the more defensible near-term stance is to hold existing positions or wait for a better entry point rather than exit the name altogether
NFLX Underperforms Industry, Sector YTD
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headwinds remain worth noting. Content amortization growth has pressured near-term margins, and competition for viewer attention from short-form video continues to intensify. Given this combination of accelerating ad monetization, a diversified and still-growing content and live-sports slate extending into 2027, and aggressive capital returns backed by strong free cash flow, the fundamental growth story remains largely intact even as the shares have underperformed year to date.
Fundamentals Still Support a Hold Stance
The first reason to stay invested is straightforward top-line durability. Netflix generated second-quarter revenues of $12.6 billion, up 13% year over year on a reported basis and 12% on an F/X-neutral basis, with double-digit growth recorded in every operating region.
For the full year, the company has narrowed its guidance to $51-$51.4 billion in revenues, implying 13-14% reported growth, alongside a maintained operating margin target of 31.5% for 2026 versus 29.5% in 2025. That margin trajectory implies operating income growth of more than 20% for the year, a rate that outpaces revenue growth and signals continued operating leverage rather than margin erosion.
Regional performance reinforces this picture. EMEA revenues surpassed the $4 billion quarterly mark for the first time, while LATAM and APAC each crossed $1.5 billion, with UCAN revenue growth of 10% reflecting only a partial-quarter impact from the latest U.S. price change.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.59 per share. This indicates a 41.9% increase from the previous year.
The second reason is cash generation and capital discipline. Free cash flow came in at $1.5 billion for the quarter, and management continues to guide toward approximately $12.5 billion for full-year 2026. That cash flow has funded an aggressive buyback program. Netflix repurchased $4.7 billion of stock in the second quarter alone, its largest quarterly repurchase on record, after its board authorized an additional $25 billion in April on top of remaining prior capacity. The company still had $27.1 billion of buyback authorization left at quarter-end, a cushion that can support the share price through periods of multiple compression even if near-term sentiment stays soft.
The third reason is diversified monetization. Advertising revenues are tracking toward roughly $3 billion for 2026, about double the prior year, with U.S. upfront negotiations described as being in advanced stages as of the July letter. Engagement also remains constructive, with first-half 2026 view hours up 2% year over year despite competition from the Winter Olympics and the World Cup, and non-English-language content again driving more than a third of total viewing. Newer formats, including video podcasts, cloud TV games and creator partnerships, are still small in absolute terms but are scaling quickly and add optionality beyond the core subscription and advertising streams. Technology investment is compounding these efforts: GenAI workflows were used across roughly 300 titles in 2026 for production tasks such as complex visual sequences, while AI-powered planning and reporting tools are being extended to programmatic ad buyers, steps management frames as groundwork for the next phase of advertising growth.
Content Pipeline Extends Into 2026 and 2027
Netflix's forward slate underpins these targets. The company has an expanded NFL agreement covering a week-one game, a Thanksgiving Eve matchup, a Christmas Gameday broadcast and a contest in first-quarter 2027, alongside the Tyson Fury versus Anthony Joshua fight and two Major League Baseball events this year. On the entertainment side, upcoming titles include The Whisper Man, The Last House, the final season of Outer Banks, Ryan Murphy's Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story, and international originals inlcuding South Korea's The East Palace, Poland's The Doll, Mexico's Lovesick, and the UK's The Gentlemen S2. Netflix is also premiering an exclusive extended look at Grand Theft Auto VI in August ahead of its industry launch, and recently signed a global streaming licensing agreement with AMC for the entire Walking Dead universe, broadening the near-term catalog while 2027 slate items continue to be layered in through ongoing local-language production deals.
Valuation and Competitive Landscape
From a valuation standpoint, Netflix appears overvalued, trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 5.63X, notably higher than the Zacks Broadcast Radio and Television industry's 3.17X, and it carries a Value Score of D, signaling shares are pricier than industry peers relative to underlying sales growth trends.
NFLX’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Competition remains intense. Disney (DIS - Free Report) keeps expanding its streaming service alongside parks strength, Apple (AAPL - Free Report) funds original programming despite a smaller subscriber base, and Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) bundles Prime Video with its e-commerce ecosystem to retain viewers. Disney, Apple and Amazon all compete for the same premium content budgets and advertiser dollars Netflix is targeting. Even so, Netflix's global scale, ad-tier momentum and expanding live-sports rights give it a durable edge over rivals like Disney, Apple and Amazon that arguably justifies some premium, so investors may still prefer holding the stock or waiting for a better pullback entry point rather than chasing shares at current levels.
Conclusion
With revenue guidance intact, margin expansion on track, ads scaling toward $3 billion, and a content and live-sports calendar extending through 2027, Netflix's fundamentals remain sound despite the year-to-date decline. Investors already holding shares have reason to stay put, while those on the sidelines may find further weakness a more attractive entry point than chasing strength. NFLX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
3 Reasons to Hold Netflix Stock Despite a 20.9% YTD Decline
Key Takeaways
Netflix (NFLX - Free Report) shares have plunged 20.9% year to date, a decline steep enough to test the patience of long-term holders. Shares of Netflix have underperformed the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector's decline of 7.5%
Yet a close reading of the company's own second-quarter 2026 disclosures suggests the pullback has more to do with sentiment and rich starting valuation than with any breakdown in the underlying business.
Revenues, margins, cash generation and the forward content calendar all point in a steady, upward direction, which is why the more defensible near-term stance is to hold existing positions or wait for a better entry point rather than exit the name altogether
NFLX Underperforms Industry, Sector YTD
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Headwinds remain worth noting. Content amortization growth has pressured near-term margins, and competition for viewer attention from short-form video continues to intensify. Given this combination of accelerating ad monetization, a diversified and still-growing content and live-sports slate extending into 2027, and aggressive capital returns backed by strong free cash flow, the fundamental growth story remains largely intact even as the shares have underperformed year to date.
Fundamentals Still Support a Hold Stance
The first reason to stay invested is straightforward top-line durability. Netflix generated second-quarter revenues of $12.6 billion, up 13% year over year on a reported basis and 12% on an F/X-neutral basis, with double-digit growth recorded in every operating region.
For the full year, the company has narrowed its guidance to $51-$51.4 billion in revenues, implying 13-14% reported growth, alongside a maintained operating margin target of 31.5% for 2026 versus 29.5% in 2025. That margin trajectory implies operating income growth of more than 20% for the year, a rate that outpaces revenue growth and signals continued operating leverage rather than margin erosion.
Regional performance reinforces this picture. EMEA revenues surpassed the $4 billion quarterly mark for the first time, while LATAM and APAC each crossed $1.5 billion, with UCAN revenue growth of 10% reflecting only a partial-quarter impact from the latest U.S. price change.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.59 per share. This indicates a 41.9% increase from the previous year.
Netflix, Inc. Price and Consensus
Netflix, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Netflix, Inc. Quote
The second reason is cash generation and capital discipline. Free cash flow came in at $1.5 billion for the quarter, and management continues to guide toward approximately $12.5 billion for full-year 2026. That cash flow has funded an aggressive buyback program. Netflix repurchased $4.7 billion of stock in the second quarter alone, its largest quarterly repurchase on record, after its board authorized an additional $25 billion in April on top of remaining prior capacity. The company still had $27.1 billion of buyback authorization left at quarter-end, a cushion that can support the share price through periods of multiple compression even if near-term sentiment stays soft.
The third reason is diversified monetization. Advertising revenues are tracking toward roughly $3 billion for 2026, about double the prior year, with U.S. upfront negotiations described as being in advanced stages as of the July letter. Engagement also remains constructive, with first-half 2026 view hours up 2% year over year despite competition from the Winter Olympics and the World Cup, and non-English-language content again driving more than a third of total viewing. Newer formats, including video podcasts, cloud TV games and creator partnerships, are still small in absolute terms but are scaling quickly and add optionality beyond the core subscription and advertising streams. Technology investment is compounding these efforts: GenAI workflows were used across roughly 300 titles in 2026 for production tasks such as complex visual sequences, while AI-powered planning and reporting tools are being extended to programmatic ad buyers, steps management frames as groundwork for the next phase of advertising growth.
Content Pipeline Extends Into 2026 and 2027
Netflix's forward slate underpins these targets. The company has an expanded NFL agreement covering a week-one game, a Thanksgiving Eve matchup, a Christmas Gameday broadcast and a contest in first-quarter 2027, alongside the Tyson Fury versus Anthony Joshua fight and two Major League Baseball events this year. On the entertainment side, upcoming titles include The Whisper Man, The Last House, the final season of Outer Banks, Ryan Murphy's Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story, and international originals inlcuding South Korea's The East Palace, Poland's The Doll, Mexico's Lovesick, and the UK's The Gentlemen S2. Netflix is also premiering an exclusive extended look at Grand Theft Auto VI in August ahead of its industry launch, and recently signed a global streaming licensing agreement with AMC for the entire Walking Dead universe, broadening the near-term catalog while 2027 slate items continue to be layered in through ongoing local-language production deals.
Valuation and Competitive Landscape
From a valuation standpoint, Netflix appears overvalued, trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 5.63X, notably higher than the Zacks Broadcast Radio and Television industry's 3.17X, and it carries a Value Score of D, signaling shares are pricier than industry peers relative to underlying sales growth trends.
NFLX’s Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Competition remains intense. Disney (DIS - Free Report) keeps expanding its streaming service alongside parks strength, Apple (AAPL - Free Report) funds original programming despite a smaller subscriber base, and Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) bundles Prime Video with its e-commerce ecosystem to retain viewers. Disney, Apple and Amazon all compete for the same premium content budgets and advertiser dollars Netflix is targeting. Even so, Netflix's global scale, ad-tier momentum and expanding live-sports rights give it a durable edge over rivals like Disney, Apple and Amazon that arguably justifies some premium, so investors may still prefer holding the stock or waiting for a better pullback entry point rather than chasing shares at current levels.
Conclusion
With revenue guidance intact, margin expansion on track, ads scaling toward $3 billion, and a content and live-sports calendar extending through 2027, Netflix's fundamentals remain sound despite the year-to-date decline. Investors already holding shares have reason to stay put, while those on the sidelines may find further weakness a more attractive entry point than chasing strength. NFLX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.