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How Does LLY's Q2 GLP-1 Portfolio Performance Stack Up Against NVO's?
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Key Takeaways
Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound sales rose 91% and 46%, respectively, driving Q2 revenue growth.
NVO's Ozempic and Wegovy injectable sales were essentially flat at constant exchange rates.
Foundayo gained momentum as access broadened, giving Lilly a path to challenge Wegovy's oral lead.
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) remains a dominant player in the GLP-1 market, led by Mounjaro for type II diabetes (T2D) and Zepbound for obesity. The two tirzepatide-based therapies continued to drive Lilly’s top-line performance in the second quarter of 2026. Mounjaro generated $9.94 billion in worldwide revenues, up 91% year over year, while Zepbound sales increased 46% to $4.93 billion. Together, the two drugs accounted for nearly 65% of Lilly’s second-quarter revenues and remain the company’s biggest growth engines.
The strength of the franchise was primarily volume-driven. Mounjaro was particularly strong outside the United States, where revenues jumped 172% to $5.2 billion, largely reflecting higher volume. U.S. Mounjaro revenues rose 45% to $4.8 billion, despite lower realized prices. U.S. Zepbound revenues also increased 44% to $4.9 billion, driven by strong demand despite lower realized prices. Lilly expects Mounjaro and Zepbound to remain key growth drivers in the second half, with continued volume growth and market expansion likely to support sales despite increasing pricing pressure.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) remains Lilly’s primary competitor in the GLP-1 market, with Ozempic serving T2D patients and Wegovy targeting obesity. However, NVO’s core injectable franchise showed little growth in the second quarter. Ozempic generated $4.88 billion (DKK 31.4 billion) in sales, essentially flat at constant exchange rates (CER), while Wegovy injectable sales of $3.03 billion (DKK 19.5 billion) were also flat at CER. This contrasts with Lilly’s stronger momentum across its competing injectable therapies.
The second-quarter results suggest that Lilly has gained a considerable edge in the GLP-1 battle, supported by stronger demand and expanding market share across both the diabetes and obesity markets.
LLY’s Oral GLP-1 Push Could Challenge NVO’s Early Lead
Novo Nordisk had a first-mover advantage in oral obesity treatment, with Wegovy pill gaining traction since its January 2026 launch. However, Lilly should be able to close the gap with Foundayo. Though Foundayo generated only $98 million in sales in the second quarter, its launch is gaining momentum as access broadens. All three major U.S. PBMs now cover Lilly’s obesity portfolio, while the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program began providing eligible patients access to Foundayo and Zepbound in July. These developments should support prescription growth and improve Foundayo’s sales in the second half.
Lilly could also narrow or even overtake Novo Nordisk’s oral lead if Foundayo’s rollout follows Zepbound’s trajectory. Zepbound gained a significant market share despite launching considerably later than Wegovy, and Lilly now has the opportunity to replicate that playbook in the oral market. Foundayo also offers a dosing advantage because it can be taken at any time of day without food or water restrictions, potentially making it more convenient than oral Wegovy. With regulatory review underway in more than 40 additional countries and Lilly pursuing a T2D indication, Foundayo has multiple avenues to broaden its reach and challenge oral Wegovy’s first-mover advantage.
Race to Make Oral Obesity Pill Intensifies
While Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate this space, smaller biotechs like Structure Therapeutics (GPCR - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) are also developing oral GLP-1 drugs for treating obesity.
Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist (RA), VK2735, is being developed in both oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Viking Therapeutics plans to advance oral VK2735 into phase III development for obesity in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Structure Therapeutics’ phase II ACCESS program on its orally administered small molecule GLP-1 RA, aleniglipron, demonstrated significant weight loss across all doses. Based on such encouraging results, Structure Therapeutics has initiated dosing patients in its late-stage ACCOMPLISHprogram to evaluate aleniglipron for chronic weight management.
LLY’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Lilly stock has risen 14% so far this year compared with the industry’s growth of 11.9%. During the same time frame, the company has outperformed the sector and the S&P 500, as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Price Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Lilly’s stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 29.03 forward earnings, higher than 18.51 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.56.
LLY Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share has risen from $34.21 to $35.93 over the past 30 days, while that for 2027 has risen from $45.10 to $45.87.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
How Does LLY's Q2 GLP-1 Portfolio Performance Stack Up Against NVO's?
Key Takeaways
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) remains a dominant player in the GLP-1 market, led by Mounjaro for type II diabetes (T2D) and Zepbound for obesity. The two tirzepatide-based therapies continued to drive Lilly’s top-line performance in the second quarter of 2026. Mounjaro generated $9.94 billion in worldwide revenues, up 91% year over year, while Zepbound sales increased 46% to $4.93 billion. Together, the two drugs accounted for nearly 65% of Lilly’s second-quarter revenues and remain the company’s biggest growth engines.
The strength of the franchise was primarily volume-driven. Mounjaro was particularly strong outside the United States, where revenues jumped 172% to $5.2 billion, largely reflecting higher volume. U.S. Mounjaro revenues rose 45% to $4.8 billion, despite lower realized prices. U.S. Zepbound revenues also increased 44% to $4.9 billion, driven by strong demand despite lower realized prices. Lilly expects Mounjaro and Zepbound to remain key growth drivers in the second half, with continued volume growth and market expansion likely to support sales despite increasing pricing pressure.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) remains Lilly’s primary competitor in the GLP-1 market, with Ozempic serving T2D patients and Wegovy targeting obesity. However, NVO’s core injectable franchise showed little growth in the second quarter. Ozempic generated $4.88 billion (DKK 31.4 billion) in sales, essentially flat at constant exchange rates (CER), while Wegovy injectable sales of $3.03 billion (DKK 19.5 billion) were also flat at CER. This contrasts with Lilly’s stronger momentum across its competing injectable therapies.
The second-quarter results suggest that Lilly has gained a considerable edge in the GLP-1 battle, supported by stronger demand and expanding market share across both the diabetes and obesity markets.
LLY’s Oral GLP-1 Push Could Challenge NVO’s Early Lead
Novo Nordisk had a first-mover advantage in oral obesity treatment, with Wegovy pill gaining traction since its January 2026 launch. However, Lilly should be able to close the gap with Foundayo. Though Foundayo generated only $98 million in sales in the second quarter, its launch is gaining momentum as access broadens. All three major U.S. PBMs now cover Lilly’s obesity portfolio, while the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program began providing eligible patients access to Foundayo and Zepbound in July. These developments should support prescription growth and improve Foundayo’s sales in the second half.
Lilly could also narrow or even overtake Novo Nordisk’s oral lead if Foundayo’s rollout follows Zepbound’s trajectory. Zepbound gained a significant market share despite launching considerably later than Wegovy, and Lilly now has the opportunity to replicate that playbook in the oral market. Foundayo also offers a dosing advantage because it can be taken at any time of day without food or water restrictions, potentially making it more convenient than oral Wegovy. With regulatory review underway in more than 40 additional countries and Lilly pursuing a T2D indication, Foundayo has multiple avenues to broaden its reach and challenge oral Wegovy’s first-mover advantage.
Race to Make Oral Obesity Pill Intensifies
While Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate this space, smaller biotechs like Structure Therapeutics (GPCR - Free Report) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX - Free Report) are also developing oral GLP-1 drugs for treating obesity.
Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist (RA), VK2735, is being developed in both oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Viking Therapeutics plans to advance oral VK2735 into phase III development for obesity in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Structure Therapeutics’ phase II ACCESS program on its orally administered small molecule GLP-1 RA, aleniglipron, demonstrated significant weight loss across all doses. Based on such encouraging results, Structure Therapeutics has initiated dosing patients in its late-stage ACCOMPLISHprogram to evaluate aleniglipron for chronic weight management.
LLY’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Lilly stock has risen 14% so far this year compared with the industry’s growth of 11.9%. During the same time frame, the company has outperformed the sector and the S&P 500, as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Price Movement
From a valuation standpoint, Lilly’s stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 29.03 forward earnings, higher than 18.51 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.56.
LLY Stock Valuation
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share has risen from $34.21 to $35.93 over the past 30 days, while that for 2027 has risen from $45.10 to $45.87.
LLY Estimate Movement
LLY has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.