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An Early Preview of Wells Fargo's (WFC) Q1 Earnings Outlook

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Shares of Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) surged near the end of last year, and this momentum carried over into the early part of 2018. Then in early February, Wells Fargo saw its stock price tumble along with many other companies. Now, amid this newly volatile market, investors might be even more focused on Wells Fargo’s upcoming Q1 financial results. 

Wells Fargo’s very public and serious business-related scandals, including its massive fake account fiasco, caused some damage to its reputation and its stock price over the last year. These self-inflicted wounds might still taint how outsiders and investors perceive the company. But the real question is: does the perception of Wells Fargo correspond with its current first quarter earnings outlook?

With that said, let’s take a look at what to expect from Wells Fargo’s upcoming Q1 financial results to see if the embattled banking power seems poised to turn things around. 

Latest Outlook and Valuation

Wells Fargo’s first quarter revenues are expected to dip by 1.5% to hit $21.67 billion, based on our current Zacks Consensus Estimates. Meanwhile, the bank is projected to see its earnings climb by 6% to reach $1.06 per share.

However, Wells Fargo’s earnings estimate revision activity has been mixed recently. The company has earned two upward earnings estimate revisions and six downward revisions, all within the last 60 days. These revisions lowered Wells Fargo’s consensus earnings estimate by 2 cents.

WFC is currently trading with a Forward P/E of 10.6. This marks a discount compared to the “Banks - Major Regional” industry, which is currently trading at an average of 11.6x forward earnings.

This also marks a discount compared to where Wells Fargo was trading at just a few months ago. Wells Fargo’s newly discounted valuation can be attributed, for the most part, to its recently declining stock price—which far outpaces its industry’s dip.  

Most Recent Results

Wells Fargo posted adjusted earnings of $0.97 per share in the fourth quarter, which fell short of our Zacks Consensus Estimate that called for EPS of $1.04. The company reported revenues of $22.1 billion, which just missed our $22.4 billion estimate.

These results are no indication of what Wells Fargo might report going forward, but they give investors some sense of how the company compared against estimates in its most recently reported quarter.

Price Performance and Surprise History

Another important thing to consider ahead of Wells Fargo’s Q1 report is the company’s history of earnings surprises and the effect that these surprises have had on share prices.

Wells Fargo & Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Wells Fargo & Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | Wells Fargo & Company Quote

We can see that Wells Fargo has posted relatively strong results over the last couple of years. It is also worth noting that Wells Fargo’s stock has performed somewhat inconsistently following the release of its quarterly earnings results.

For instance, Wells Fargo stock surged in the immediate aftermath of an earnings miss last quarter, while its stock price sank following a second quarter earnings beat.

Bottom Line

Past performance does not always guarantee future success. And we can see that Wells Fargo’s price performance has been a bit harder to gauge over its recent scandal-ridden stretch.

Investors should remember that the bank’s bottom line is projected to expand in the first quarter, and note that Wells Fargo is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Wells Fargo is scheduled to report its first quarter 2018 financial results before markets open on Friday, April 13.

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