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The world's top central bank chiefs gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, against a jittery backdrop
Half a year into the Iran war, and
With bond markets rattled, by a selloff in long-dated U.S. debt, that prompted U.S. Treasury intervention
Away from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, there's plenty else going on, from— Nvidia's (NVDA - Free Report) latest earnings report, and Inflation readings around the world To a South Korean policy rate decision, and An Icelandic vote, on whether to revive E.U. accession talks
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) On Wednesday, Nvidia Reports Results
After a rocky few days for tech stocks, investors will get a fresh read on the artificial intelligence spending boom that has helped propel markets to record highs when Nvidia reports second-quarter results on Wednesday.
The chipmaker, whose processors are central to AI development, is widely viewed as a barometer for both AI investment and broader tech sentiment.
Its results could help determine whether enthusiasm for AI remains strong enough to support lofty valuations, after a recent tech selloff driven in part by rising bond yields.
Investors will focus on demand from major cloud providers, whose spending has fueled Nvidia’s rapid growth.
Signs that customers are ramping up AI deployments or spending plans could reinforce expectations that the investment cycle still has room to run.
(2) On Wednesday, U.S. Core PCE Data Lands. CPI Data Get Refreshed Elsewhere
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and crude prices grinding higher are adding to concerns about the global inflation outlook.
Brent is headed for a second straight weekly gain and its sixth advance in eight weeks, but it's the surge in refined products that is drawing growing attention as the Northern Hemisphere heads towards the colder months.
European diesel prices have jumped more than 70% since the outbreak of war in February; U.S. gasoline is up 60%.
With refining output curtailed in the Middle East, Russia, East Asia and beyond, energy-driven inflation looks here to stay.
A clearer picture of global inflation is due in the coming days, with data from Australia on Wednesday, and France, Spain and Tokyo on Friday.
Particular focus will fall on the U.S. core PCE reading on Wednesday — expected to print above the Fed's +2% target for the 65th consecutive month.
(3) On Thursday, South Korea’s Central Bank Sets Monetary Policy. Rate Hike?
South Korea's central bank meets on Thursday with markets watching for signs that policymakers are ready to follow up July's first rate hike in 3-1/2 years.
Inflation cooled to an annualized +2.8% that month, but still remains above target as demand for AI-related chips continues to support the economy.
Higher borrowing costs could add to pressure on South Korean stocks, still recovering from June's leverage-fueled selloff, while also boosting the won, which has strengthened more than 10% this month.
Governor Shin Hyun Song has signalled a preference for keeping policy tight to contain inflation, suggesting another hike cannot be ruled out.
Elsewhere, Thailand's central bank meets on Wednesday, but with inflation far more subdued, few expect rates to move again this year.
(4) On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks for the First Time at Jackson Hole
Big-think or red meat?
That’s the choice Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh faces as he prepares a keynote address at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming: expound on his ideas for reforming the central bank, or stick to the nuts and bolts of monetary policy and whether rates are headed higher.
As the gathering kicks off on Thursday, bringing together central bank chiefs from around the world, the audience for his remarks could hardly be more influential.
Warsh has spent his first weeks as chair focusing on long-term structural issues facing the U.S. economy.
But investors, still digesting a bond selloff, are craving a steer about the here and now.
Warsh has been pretty clear he doesn’t want to show his hand, but he may find his no-guidance policy becoming a liability.
(5) Icelanders Vote: A Referendum on Whether to Start E.U. Accession Talks
Icelanders head to the polls on August 29th in a referendum on whether to thaw out E.U. accession talks that have been on ice since 2013, when a eurosceptic government put them in the chiller.
It's not a vote on joining the bloc itself. Any eventual deal would still need a second referendum. For now, polls suggest the country is split right down the middle.
At stake are Iceland's rich natural resources, sky-high interest rates, a punishing cost of living costs and, increasingly, security concerns stirred by U.S. interest in neighboring Greenland.
A "yes" vote would reopen thorny talks with Brussels, with fisheries likely the biggest obstacle. A "no" sends the E.U. question back into the deep freeze and dents the bloc's enlargement pitch.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next, three fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks:
The three stocks share one thing in common: scary share price charts
The first stock has lowest F12 P/E valuation
I end with the nosebleed highest
(1) Valero (VLO - Free Report) : This is a $342 a share refiner, with a market cap of $99.7B
It is found in the Zacks Oil & Gas Refining industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
F12M P/E: 8.5.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valero Energy is the largest independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products in the United States.
It has refineries located throughout the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
Moreover, Valero is a leading ethanol producer with ethanol plants in the Midwest.
The products of the company are sold in the markets of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Latin America.
The company's brand names are carried by outlets.
The company organizes its business through three reportable segments, namely, Refining, Ethanol, and Renewable Diesel.
(2) Lumentum (LITE - Free Report) : This is a $879 a share optical maker, with a market cap of $74.2B
It is found in Zacks Communication Components industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
F12M P/E: 44.2.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lumentum Holdings is a manufacturer of innovative optical and photonic products.
The company's operating segment consists of Optical Communications and Commercial Lasers. Optical Communications segment portfolio includes products used by Telecom and Datacom nanoelectromechanical systems and traditional as well as cloud/data center service providers.
Commercial Lasers segment products serve its customers in markets and applications, such as manufacturing, biotechnology, graphics and imaging, remote sensing and precision machining.
Lumentum Holdings is headquartered in Milpitas, California.
(3) Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR - Free Report) : a $1,310 a share specialty chip producer, with a market cap of $63.9B
It is found in the Zacks Semiconductor-Analog industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
F12M P/E: 47.8.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Monolithic Power Systems designs, develops and markets high-performance power solutions.
The company focuses on the market for high-performance analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs).
Monolithic's products are widely utilized in industrial applications, telecommunication infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive and consumer applications.
Being a fabless company, Monolithic works with third-party contractors and chip assemblers for the manufacturing, assembling and testing of wafers and ICs.
This approach permits the company to focus more on the designing and development of process technology at a lower-fixed cost.
Unlike other fabless semiconductor companies, Monolithic installs its own proprietary process technologies in third-party contractors' equipment and facilities.
Key Global Macro
On Monday, the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes come out.
On Tuesday, Australia’s CPI for July comes out. The prior June broad CPI reading was a too high +3.8% y/y. Their trimmed mean CPI was at +3.6% y/y in June.
On Wednesday, U.S. core PCE for July comes out. Look for +3.4% in July q-on-q terms, matching the prior +3.4% reading.
In y/y terms? Look for +3.3% to stick around.
The m/m U.S. core PCE increase? That is expected to be +0.2%, versus +0.1% in the prior reading.
On Thursday, Japan’s ex food & energy CPI for August comes out. +2.0% y/y was the prior reading.
On Friday, the Jackson Hole Symposium is likely the main event.
Fed Chair Warsh supplies a keynote address, to close it out.
Conclusion
On August 19th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared a Q2 EPS look back.
Key points:
(1) For the 463 S&P500 companies reporting Q2 results (representing 92.6% of total index membership?
Aggregate earnings grew +40.9% year-over-year on +14.5% higher revenues.
Positive Surprises were widespread: 83.8% beat EPS estimates and 76.9% topped revenue estimates.
Both growth rates and beat percentages tracked comfortably above this group’s 20-quarter averages.
(3) Excluding Micron and Alphabet?
Q2 earnings for the remaining 461 reporting index members rose +21.5% (compared to +40.9% unadjusted) on +13.4% higher revenue (compared to +14.5% unadjusted), maintaining a solid growth profile.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
Monster NVIDIA Reports Results: Global Week Ahead
Key Takeaways
What happens across this Global Week Ahead?
Away from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, there's plenty else going on, from—
Nvidia's (NVDA - Free Report) latest earnings report, and
Inflation readings around the world
To a South Korean policy rate decision, and
An Icelandic vote, on whether to revive E.U. accession talks
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) On Wednesday, Nvidia Reports Results
After a rocky few days for tech stocks, investors will get a fresh read on the artificial intelligence spending boom that has helped propel markets to record highs when Nvidia reports second-quarter results on Wednesday.
The chipmaker, whose processors are central to AI development, is widely viewed as a barometer for both AI investment and broader tech sentiment.
Its results could help determine whether enthusiasm for AI remains strong enough to support lofty valuations, after a recent tech selloff driven in part by rising bond yields.
Investors will focus on demand from major cloud providers, whose spending has fueled Nvidia’s rapid growth.
Signs that customers are ramping up AI deployments or spending plans could reinforce expectations that the investment cycle still has room to run.
(2) On Wednesday, U.S. Core PCE Data Lands. CPI Data Get Refreshed Elsewhere
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and crude prices grinding higher are adding to concerns about the global inflation outlook.
Brent is headed for a second straight weekly gain and its sixth advance in eight weeks, but it's the surge in refined products that is drawing growing attention as the Northern Hemisphere heads towards the colder months.
European diesel prices have jumped more than 70% since the outbreak of war in February; U.S. gasoline is up 60%.
With refining output curtailed in the Middle East, Russia, East Asia and beyond, energy-driven inflation looks here to stay.
A clearer picture of global inflation is due in the coming days, with data from Australia on Wednesday, and France, Spain and Tokyo on Friday.
Particular focus will fall on the U.S. core PCE reading on Wednesday — expected to print above the Fed's +2% target for the 65th consecutive month.
(3) On Thursday, South Korea’s Central Bank Sets Monetary Policy. Rate Hike?
South Korea's central bank meets on Thursday with markets watching for signs that policymakers are ready to follow up July's first rate hike in 3-1/2 years.
Inflation cooled to an annualized +2.8% that month, but still remains above target as demand for AI-related chips continues to support the economy.
Higher borrowing costs could add to pressure on South Korean stocks, still recovering from June's leverage-fueled selloff, while also boosting the won, which has strengthened more than 10% this month.
Governor Shin Hyun Song has signalled a preference for keeping policy tight to contain inflation, suggesting another hike cannot be ruled out.
Elsewhere, Thailand's central bank meets on Wednesday, but with inflation far more subdued, few expect rates to move again this year.
(4) On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks for the First Time at Jackson Hole
Big-think or red meat?
That’s the choice Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh faces as he prepares a keynote address at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming: expound on his ideas for reforming the central bank, or stick to the nuts and bolts of monetary policy and whether rates are headed higher.
As the gathering kicks off on Thursday, bringing together central bank chiefs from around the world, the audience for his remarks could hardly be more influential.
Warsh has spent his first weeks as chair focusing on long-term structural issues facing the U.S. economy.
But investors, still digesting a bond selloff, are craving a steer about the here and now.
Warsh has been pretty clear he doesn’t want to show his hand, but he may find his no-guidance policy becoming a liability.
(5) Icelanders Vote: A Referendum on Whether to Start E.U. Accession Talks
Icelanders head to the polls on August 29th in a referendum on whether to thaw out E.U. accession talks that have been on ice since 2013, when a eurosceptic government put them in the chiller.
It's not a vote on joining the bloc itself. Any eventual deal would still need a second referendum. For now, polls suggest the country is split right down the middle.
At stake are Iceland's rich natural resources, sky-high interest rates, a punishing cost of living costs and, increasingly, security concerns stirred by U.S. interest in neighboring Greenland.
A "yes" vote would reopen thorny talks with Brussels, with fisheries likely the biggest obstacle. A "no" sends the E.U. question back into the deep freeze and dents the bloc's enlargement pitch.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next, three fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks:
(1) Valero (VLO - Free Report) : This is a $342 a share refiner, with a market cap of $99.7B
It is found in the Zacks Oil & Gas Refining industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
F12M P/E: 8.5.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valero Energy is the largest independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products in the United States.
It has refineries located throughout the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
Moreover, Valero is a leading ethanol producer with ethanol plants in the Midwest.
The products of the company are sold in the markets of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Latin America.
The company's brand names are carried by outlets.
The company organizes its business through three reportable segments, namely, Refining, Ethanol, and Renewable Diesel.
(2) Lumentum (LITE - Free Report) : This is a $879 a share optical maker, with a market cap of $74.2B
It is found in Zacks Communication Components industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
F12M P/E: 44.2.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Lumentum Holdings is a manufacturer of innovative optical and photonic products.
The company's operating segment consists of Optical Communications and Commercial Lasers. Optical Communications segment portfolio includes products used by Telecom and Datacom nanoelectromechanical systems and traditional as well as cloud/data center service providers.
Commercial Lasers segment products serve its customers in markets and applications, such as manufacturing, biotechnology, graphics and imaging, remote sensing and precision machining.
Lumentum Holdings is headquartered in Milpitas, California.
(3) Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR - Free Report) : a $1,310 a share specialty chip producer, with a market cap of $63.9B
It is found in the Zacks Semiconductor-Analog industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
F12M P/E: 47.8.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Monolithic Power Systems designs, develops and markets high-performance power solutions.
The company focuses on the market for high-performance analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs).
Monolithic's products are widely utilized in industrial applications, telecommunication infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive and consumer applications.
Being a fabless company, Monolithic works with third-party contractors and chip assemblers for the manufacturing, assembling and testing of wafers and ICs.
This approach permits the company to focus more on the designing and development of process technology at a lower-fixed cost.
Unlike other fabless semiconductor companies, Monolithic installs its own proprietary process technologies in third-party contractors' equipment and facilities.
Key Global Macro
On Monday, the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes come out.
On Tuesday, Australia’s CPI for July comes out. The prior June broad CPI reading was a too high +3.8% y/y. Their trimmed mean CPI was at +3.6% y/y in June.
On Wednesday, U.S. core PCE for July comes out. Look for +3.4% in July q-on-q terms, matching the prior +3.4% reading.
In y/y terms? Look for +3.3% to stick around.
The m/m U.S. core PCE increase? That is expected to be +0.2%, versus +0.1% in the prior reading.
On Thursday, Japan’s ex food & energy CPI for August comes out. +2.0% y/y was the prior reading.
On Friday, the Jackson Hole Symposium is likely the main event.
Fed Chair Warsh supplies a keynote address, to close it out.
Conclusion
On August 19th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared a Q2 EPS look back.
Key points:
(1) For the 463 S&P500 companies reporting Q2 results (representing 92.6% of total index membership?
Aggregate earnings grew +40.9% year-over-year on +14.5% higher revenues.
Positive Surprises were widespread: 83.8% beat EPS estimates and 76.9% topped revenue estimates.
(2) Q2 performance significantly exceeded recent historical baselines.
Both growth rates and beat percentages tracked comfortably above this group’s 20-quarter averages.
(3) Excluding Micron and Alphabet?
Q2 earnings for the remaining 461 reporting index members rose +21.5% (compared to +40.9% unadjusted) on +13.4% higher revenue (compared to +14.5% unadjusted), maintaining a solid growth profile.
(4) Q2 earnings growth within the Tech sector remains heavily concentrated in Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) , Micron (MU - Free Report) and Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) .
Stripping the contribution of these three companies reduces Q2 earnings growth for the remainder of the Tech sector to +33.7% (down from +95.2%).
That’s it for this Global Week Ahead.
Kind Regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist