We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
SCCO's H1 Copper Output Falls Y/Y: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
Southern Copper's H1 copper production fell 3.8% y/y to 461,206 tons.
The 2026 copper output is forecast at 917,000 tons, implying a 5% y/y decline.
Tia Maria and other projects could lift output to 1.6 million tons by 2033 or 2034.
Southern Copper Corporation’s (SCCO - Free Report) copper production fell 3.5% in the second quarter of 2026, pushing the first-half 2026 production to decline 3.8% year-over-year to 461,206 tons due to a decrease in production at the company’s Peruvian operations.
Despite the year-to-date fall in production, the company has slightly hiked its 2026 copper production outlook to 917,000 tons from the initially stated 910,000 tons. The figure, however, implies a 5% year-over-year decline. The downside will be caused by lower ore grades at the Cuajone and Peruvian mines. Southern Copper expects 2027 copper production to remain near the 2026 level.
Tía María is expected to begin production in the second half of 2027 and lift total copper output to about 970,000 tons in 2028. The company then expects production to reach 1.06 million tons in 2029.
Southern Copper maintains a strong long-term outlook with production expected to increase to 1.6 million tons by 2033 or 2034. To support this growth plan, the company intends to invest $20.5 billion over the next decade, with the bulk of the capital allocated to projects.
The pipeline includes Tía María, Los Chancas and Michiquillay in Peru, along with El Pilar, El Arco and other projects in Mexico. The breadth of these projects gives Southern Copper multiple sources of organic production growth beyond current mine grades. Expected grade recovery at Toquepala and Cuajone should also add production after 2027.
Southern Copper Peers’ Production Performance & Outlook
Teck Resources Ltd (TECK - Free Report) copper segment’s revenues surged 85% year over year, driven by higher copper prices and sales volumes. This pushed the company’s top line to $2.6 billion, marking a 78% year-over-year rise.
However, Teck Resources' Red Dog production fell to 112,000 tons in the second quarter of 2026 from 136,600 tons a year earlier as grades declined in line with the mine plan. Nonetheless, Teck Resources maintains its 2026 copper production guidance of 455-530 thousand tons, whereas it produced 453.5 thousand tons in 2025. This will be driven by higher output at QB, Highland Valley Copper and Antamina. The long-term outlook for copper is positive as demand is expected to grow, partly driven by electric vehicles, renewable energy and infrastructure investments.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s (FCX - Free Report) revenues declined 7.3% year over year to $7.03 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Freeport-McMoRan’s copper production fell 18.4% year over year to 786 million pounds in the reported quarter.
Freeport-McMoRan’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 30% year over year in the second quarter to 710 million pounds. While the company’s third-quarter outlook for copper sales volumes of 750 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 23% year-over-year decline. The company, in April 2026, lowered its consolidated sales volume projections for 2026 to 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine.
SCCO’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates
Southern Copper shares have gained 51.3% year to date compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 38.5%. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has risen 25.1% and the S&P 500 has rallied 12.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Southern Copper stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 29.70X, which is a premium to the industry average of 25.45X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Southern Copper’s 2026 sales is $16.86 billion, indicating a 25.6% year-over-year jump. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is pegged at $7.61 per share, suggesting a rally of 45.2%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2027 sales implies an 11.7% year-over-year dip. The same for earnings suggests a fall of 8.2%. Earnings estimates for 2026 have moved 0.1% south over the past 60 days, while the same for 2027 have moved up 0.3% over the past 60 days.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
SCCO's H1 Copper Output Falls Y/Y: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Southern Copper Corporation’s (SCCO - Free Report) copper production fell 3.5% in the second quarter of 2026, pushing the first-half 2026 production to decline 3.8% year-over-year to 461,206 tons due to a decrease in production at the company’s Peruvian operations.
Despite the year-to-date fall in production, the company has slightly hiked its 2026 copper production outlook to 917,000 tons from the initially stated 910,000 tons. The figure, however, implies a 5% year-over-year decline. The downside will be caused by lower ore grades at the Cuajone and Peruvian mines. Southern Copper expects 2027 copper production to remain near the 2026 level.
Tía María is expected to begin production in the second half of 2027 and lift total copper output to about 970,000 tons in 2028. The company then expects production to reach 1.06 million tons in 2029.
Southern Copper maintains a strong long-term outlook with production expected to increase to 1.6 million tons by 2033 or 2034. To support this growth plan, the company intends to invest $20.5 billion over the next decade, with the bulk of the capital allocated to projects.
The pipeline includes Tía María, Los Chancas and Michiquillay in Peru, along with El Pilar, El Arco and other projects in Mexico. The breadth of these projects gives Southern Copper multiple sources of organic production growth beyond current mine grades. Expected grade recovery at Toquepala and Cuajone should also add production after 2027.
Southern Copper Peers’ Production Performance & Outlook
Teck Resources Ltd (TECK - Free Report) copper segment’s revenues surged 85% year over year, driven by higher copper prices and sales volumes. This pushed the company’s top line to $2.6 billion, marking a 78% year-over-year rise.
However, Teck Resources' Red Dog production fell to 112,000 tons in the second quarter of 2026 from 136,600 tons a year earlier as grades declined in line with the mine plan. Nonetheless, Teck Resources maintains its 2026 copper production guidance of 455-530 thousand tons, whereas it produced 453.5 thousand tons in 2025. This will be driven by higher output at QB, Highland Valley Copper and Antamina. The long-term outlook for copper is positive as demand is expected to grow, partly driven by electric vehicles, renewable energy and infrastructure investments.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s (FCX - Free Report) revenues declined 7.3% year over year to $7.03 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Freeport-McMoRan’s copper production fell 18.4% year over year to 786 million pounds in the reported quarter.
Freeport-McMoRan’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 30% year over year in the second quarter to 710 million pounds. While the company’s third-quarter outlook for copper sales volumes of 750 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 23% year-over-year decline. The company, in April 2026, lowered its consolidated sales volume projections for 2026 to 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine.
SCCO’s Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates
Southern Copper shares have gained 51.3% year to date compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 38.5%. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has risen 25.1% and the S&P 500 has rallied 12.6%.
The Southern Copper stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 29.70X, which is a premium to the industry average of 25.45X.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Southern Copper’s 2026 sales is $16.86 billion, indicating a 25.6% year-over-year jump. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is pegged at $7.61 per share, suggesting a rally of 45.2%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2027 sales implies an 11.7% year-over-year dip. The same for earnings suggests a fall of 8.2%.
Earnings estimates for 2026 have moved 0.1% south over the past 60 days, while the same for 2027 have moved up 0.3% over the past 60 days.
The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.