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UMB (UMBF) Down 3.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for UMB Financial (UMBF - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UMB due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for UMB Financial Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

UMB Financial Q2 Earnings Beat on Y/Y Rise in NII, Expenses Increase

UMB Financial reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted operating earnings per share of $3.57, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.08. The bottom line also increased from $2.96 in the year-ago quarter.

The company delivered a strong quarterly performance, supported by solid growth in net interest income, higher non-interest income and continued loan growth. Improved efficiency and strong credit quality further supported the results.

Results include certain non-recurring items. After considering those, net income (GAAP basis) available to common shareholders was $271.8 million in the second quarter, up 26.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Revenues & Expenses Rise

Quarterly revenues were $786.9 million, rising 14.2% year over year. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.4%.

NII was $532.5 million, up 14% from the prior-year quarter.

On a fully-taxable-equivalent basis, the net interest margin was 3.32%, up 22 basis points year over year. The increase was primarily driven by favorable deposit repricing following lower short-term interest rates and growth in average loans and securities.

Non-interest income was $245.5 million, up 10.5% year over year. The increase was primarily driven by higher trust and securities processing income, other income, and brokerage income. These increases were partially offset by lower investment securities gains.

Non-interest expenses were $399.6 million, up 1.6% year over year. Second-quarter 2026 expenses included $1.7 million in total acquisition-related and other non-recurring costs. Operating non-interest expenses (adjusted basis) were $398 million, up 4.7% year over year.

The efficiency ratio declined to 48.4% from the prior-year quarter’s 53.4%. A decline in the efficiency ratio indicates an increase in profitability.

Loans & Deposit Balances Rise

Average loans for the second quarter were $40.6 billion, up 3.2% sequentially and 11.6% from the prior-year quarter. End-of-period loans stood at $41.1 billion as of June 30, 2026.

Average deposits remained flat sequentially and increased 3.5% year over year to $57.6 billion. Average interest-bearing deposits increased 3.9%, while non-interest-bearing demand deposit balances rose 2.1% from the prior-year quarter.

Credit Quality Deteriorates

Net charge-offs totaled $15.9 million, or 0.16% of average loans, compared with $15.5 million, or 0.17%, in the year-ago quarter.

Total non-accrual and restructured loans were $127.5 million compared with $97 million in the year-ago quarter.

The provision for credit losses was $28 million in the second quarter of 2026, up from $21 million in the prior-year quarter.

Capital Ratios Improve

As of June 30, 2026, the Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 12.02% compared with 11.24% as of June 30, 2025. The Tier 1 leverage ratio was 9.11% compared with 8.34% in the year-ago quarter. The total risk-based capital ratio was 13.80%, up from 13.46% a year ago.

In the second quarter of 2026, the company repurchased 38,158 common shares at a weighted average price of $132.10 for a total repurchase of $5 million.

Profitability Ratios Improve

Return on average assets at the second-quarter end was 1.55% compared with the year-ago quarter’s 1.29%.

Return on average common equity was 14.16% compared with 12.72% in the year-ago quarter.

Outlook

Third Quarter 2026

Core net interest margin is expected to remain relatively flat from the second quarter adjusted level of 3.09%.

Operating noninterest expense is expected to be approximately $390 million.

Management expects deposit pipelines to remain healthy, although the deposit environment is expected to face seasonal pressure in the third quarter.

Loan growth pipelines are expected to remain strong, led by C&I lending across the company’s footprint.

2026

The effective tax rate is expected to remain between 20% and 22%.

Management expects positive operating leverage for 2026, even as contractual purchase accounting accretion is expected to be approximately $46 million for the remainder of the year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, UMB has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, UMB has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

UMB belongs to the Zacks Banks - Midwest industry. Another stock from the same industry, Huntington Bancshares (HBAN - Free Report) , has gained 1.2% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2026.

Huntington Bancshares reported revenues of $2.86 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +42%. EPS of $0.39 for the same period compares with $0.38 a year ago.

Huntington Bancshares is expected to post earnings of $0.40 per share for the current quarter, representing no change from the year-ago quarter. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.2%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Huntington Bancshares. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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