It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Arch Capital Group (ACGL Quick QuoteACGL - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Arch Capital due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Arch Capital Group Ltd. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

ACGL Q2 Earnings Beat on Reserve Gains, Investment Income

Arch Capital Group reported second-quarter 2026 operating income of $2.56 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.8%. The bottom line decreased 0.8% year over year.

Revenues of $4.43 billion declined 6.9% year over year and missed the consensus mark by 3.1%. Results reflected lower earned premiums and catastrophe pressure, partly offset by higher net investment income.

ACGL's Underwriting Results Weaken

Gross premiums written declined 1.1% year over year to $6.13 billion. Net premiums written decreased 6.9% to $4.05 billion, reflecting lower volumes in the Insurance and Reinsurance segments. Net premiums earned fell 8.1% to $3.99 billion. 

Underwriting income fell 19.7% to $657 million. The combined ratio, which measures claims and expenses as a percentage of premiums, deteriorated 230 basis points to 83.5%. Catastrophe losses totaled $201 million, while favorable prior-year reserve development was $165 million.

Arch Capital's Insurance Segment Faces Cat Losses

Insurance gross premiums written declined 2.9% year over year to $2.60 billion. The figure was lower than our estimate of $2.7 billion. Net premiums written fell 5.1% to $1.93 billion. The figure was lower than our estimate of $1.95 billion. 
Underwriting income plunged 79.1% to $27 million. The figure was lower than our estimate of $70.2 million. The combined ratio worsened by 510 basis points to 98.5%. The combined ratio excluding catastrophe activity and prior-year development was 91.6%, up 100 basis points.

ACGL's Reinsurance Profitability Remains Strong

Reinsurance gross premiums written inched up 0.2% to $3.20 billion. The figure was lower than our estimate of $3.06 billion. Net premiums written dropped 10.4% to $1.84 billion, partly due to non-renewals, reduced participations and targeted increases in retrocessions. The figure was lower than our estimate of $2 billion.

Underwriting income decreased 9.1% to $410 million. The figure was higher than our estimate of $384.2 million. However, the combined ratio improved 100 basis points to 77.5%. The underlying combined ratio increased 270 basis points to 79.9%.

Arch Capital's Mortgage Results Moderate

Mortgage gross premiums written rose 0.3% year over year to $324 million, while net premiums written increased 7.5% to $272 million. Growth in international business offset lower U.S. monthly premium volume. The figure for gross premiums written was higher than our estimate of $314.9 million, while that for net premiums written was higher than our estimate of $247.6 million.

Underwriting income declined 7.6% to $220 million. The figure was lower than our estimate of $226.7 million. The combined ratio deteriorated 760 basis points to 22.8%. Excluding prior year development, the combined ratio was 39.8% compared with 39.3% a year earlier.

ACGL's Investment Portfolio Adds Support

Pre-tax net investment income increased 3% year over year to $417 million, supported by growth in average invested assets and strong operating cash flows. The figure was higher than our estimate of $420.9 million. Equity in net income from investments accounted for under the equity method rose to $196 million from $162 million.

Arch Capital ended the quarter with $1.11 billion in cash and $4.29 billion in senior notes. Book value per share rose 2.8% sequentially to $68.04. Net cash provided by operating activities increased 17.6% year over year to $1.32 billion.

Arch Capital's Returns and Capital Actions

Net income available to common shareholders was $1.05 billion, or $3 per share, compared with $1.23 billion, or $3.23 per share, in the year-ago quarter. Annualized net income return on average common equity was 18%, which contracted 490 basis points year over year, while annualized operating return was 15.3%, which contracted 290 basis points year over year.

The company completed a $2 billion senior notes offering in June and used part of the proceeds for debt refinancing and tender offers. Interest expense increased to $44 million from $38 million. Arch Capital also repurchased $1.2 billion of shares during the quarter, contributing to an 8.2% year-over-year decline in diluted weighted-average shares.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, Arch Capital has a poor Growth Score of F, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Arch Capital has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Arch Capital belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry. Another stock from the same industry, Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL Quick QuoteKNSL - Free Report) , has gained 2.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2026.

Kinsale Capital Group reported revenues of $548.52 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +16.8%. EPS of $5.54 for the same period compares with $4.78 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Kinsale Capital Group is expected to post earnings of $4.87 per share, indicating a change of -6.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.1% over the last 30 days.

Kinsale Capital Group has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.