It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Aon (AON Quick QuoteAON - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Aon due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Aon plc before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Aon Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on New Business Wins, Strong Retention

Aon reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.81 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.1%. The bottom line advanced 9% year over year.

Total revenues of $4.2 billion grew 2% year over year.  The top line missed the consensus mark by 0.4%. Organic revenue growth was 5%.

The quarterly results were supported by strong organic revenue growth, healthy client retention, operating margin expansion and disciplined execution. Solid performance across the Commercial Risk, Reinsurance and Health Solutions businesses was partly offset by weakness in Wealth Solutions.

AON’s Q2 Operations

Total operating expenses inched up 1% year over year to $3.3 billion due to higher expenses related to organic revenue growth, investments in long-term growth and unfavorable foreign currency translation. This was partly offset by lower expenses associated with the sale of NFP Wealth. The metric was in line with our estimate.

Adjusted operating income amounted to $1.2 billion, up 5% year over year and in line with our estimate. The metric benefited from organic revenue growth, scale improvements in scale improvements in Aon Business Services (ABS) and net restructuring savings, partially offset by growth investments. Adjusted operating margin improved 70 basis points year over year to 28.9%.

Q2 Segmental Performance

Risk Capital

Commercial Risk Solutions: Organic revenues rose 5% year over year in the second quarter on the back of new business and strong retention rates across North America and EMEA. Revenues in this solution line advanced 5% year over year to $2.3 billion, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Reinsurance Solutions: Organic revenues grew 5% year over year, driven by increased treaty placements, new business wins and strong client retention, along with growth in facultative placements. Revenues amounted to $711 million, which improved 3% year over year but missed the consensus mark by 1%.

Human Capital

Health Solutions: Organic revenues inched up 5% year over year as a result of new business growth, strong retention rates and positive market impact. The solution line’s revenues increased 6% year over year to $818 million, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.4%.

Wealth Solutions: Organic revenue growth of 5% was driven by expansion in Retirement and continued demand for advisory services in the UK and EMEA amid ongoing regulatory changes. Revenues totaled $426 million, down 18% year over year. The metric lagged the consensus mark by 3.2%.

AON’s Q2 Financial Position

Aon exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.1 billion, which declined 11.1% from the 2025-end level. Total assets of $53.3 billion increased 5% from the 2025-end figure.

Long-term debt amounted to $12.9 billion, down 11.7% from the figure as of Dec. 31, 2025. Short-term debt and the current portion of long-term debt totaled $2 billion.

Aon generated cash flow from operations of $556 million, which decreased 30% year over year. Adjusted free cash flow decreased 34% year over year to $483 million.

Aon’s Capital Deployment Update

Aon bought back 1.9 million Class A ordinary shares for roughly $600 million in the second quarter of 2026. It also returned $175 million to shareholders through dividends. As of June 30, 2026, the company had approximately $7.7 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization.

AON Reaffirms Its 2026 Outlook

Aon expects mid-single-digit or higher organic revenue growth in 2026. The company anticipates adjusted operating margin expansion of 70-80 basis points. It projects strong growth in adjusted EPS for the year. Free cash flow is likely to grow at a double-digit rate, while the tax rate is expected to be in the 19.5-20.5% range.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

At this time, Aon has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Aon has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Aon belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Brokerage industry. Another stock from the same industry, Brown & Brown (BRO Quick QuoteBRO - Free Report) , has gained 0.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2026.

Brown & Brown reported revenues of $1.68 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +30.4%. EPS of $1.07 for the same period compares with $1.03 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Brown & Brown is expected to post earnings of $1.09 per share, indicating a change of +3.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.8% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Brown & Brown. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.