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The Consequences of U.S. Intervention: Global Week Ahead
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Key Takeaways
Friday's Job Numbers Key to Economic Outlook
Looking into Secy Bessent's Bond Intervention
What Will the ECB Do Amid High Inflation?
What happens across this Global Week Ahead?
Key U.S. Nonfarm jobs data from August
Central bank meetings in New Zealand and Canada, and
A G20 gathering in Asheville, North Carolina
All suggest there's not much downtime for traders, catching up on that post summer read-in.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) On Friday, the August U.S. Federal Non-farm Payroll Numbers Land
Friday's U.S. jobs report will shed light on whether the country's labor market may be softening or if last month's dour data was a one-off event.
It's expected to show employment climbed by a tepid +45K jobs in August, according to a Reuters poll, after falling by an unexpected -23K in July.
The weak July report did calm market worries about near-term interest rate hikes, although Fed funds futures still suggest better-than-even odds of a rate increase before the year is out.
Data this week showed inflation continues to run above the Fed's +2.0% target.
Other economic data next week include reports on manufacturing and services activity.
Elsewhere, Broadcom's (AVGO - Free Report) quarterly results on Wednesday will likely be in focus after fellow semiconductor giant Nvidia's (NVDA - Free Report) earnings underscored strong demand for AI computing.
(2) Unfolding Consequences of U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent’s Bond Intervention
Another source of potential market volatility comes from the U.S. Treasury market, where traders may well test Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's resolve to limit a rise in U.S. borrowing costs.
Recent days have seen talk of "dollar debasement" gather pace as a result.
The idea is simple: if the U.S. Treasury caps long-term borrowing costs through bond buybacks, then investors will price in worries about a $40-trillion debt pile and policy uncertainty somewhere — the dollar.
For sure, the greenback and U.S. Treasuries have stabilized in recent days from a bout of selling.
However, that has not stalled the debasement talk with market watchers skeptical that buybacks worth $4 billion will shift the needle.
Gold has surged +13% in August, set for its biggest monthly jump since 1999.
Bitcoin also appears to be benefiting: the cryptocurrency moved back above $80,000 on Tuesday.
(3) Eurozone August Inflation? Forecast at +3.3%. That Should Worry the ECB
Eurozone August inflation is forecast to hit +3.3%, its highest in nearly three years, driven by elevated energy costs.
The data is due on Tuesday, and the European Central Bank (ECB) will also be watching readings excluding volatile food and energy prices, forecast to be closer to its +2.0% inflation target, but still above it.
The ECB's big worry is that higher energy prices spill over into broader inflation.
Traders are convinced the ECB will raise rates at its September meeting.
Tuesday's figure would have to be very low to change that, but it will shape longer-term expectations.
Markets price a further hike by early 2027, but sources told Reuters that policymakers will have little appetite to signal further tightening at September's meeting.
In other European Union news, Iceland holds a referendum on Saturday on restarting negotiations to join the bloc.
(4) On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Likely Hikes
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its policy decision on Wednesday, where a hike to 2.75% is likely a done deal as the economy continues to grapple with mounting price pressures.
New Zealand's annual inflation accelerated in the second quarter to a 2-1/2-year high on the back of a sharp rise in fuel prices, and with war in the Middle East still raging, energy costs are unlikely to abate anytime soon.
Investors see rates reaching +3.0% by December and +3.5% next year as the RBNZ shifts from outright stimulus to a more neutral policy stance.
Over in Ottawa, the Bank of Canada is also due to announce its rate decision on Wednesday.
The central bank is seen keeping rates on hold now and well into next year, as price pressures remain largely contained although trade tensions with the U.S. add uncertainty to the economic outlook.
(5) On Monday and Tuesday, a G20 Meeting Happens in Asheville, North Carolina
After Jackson Hole, it's on to the next gig.
Central bankers from around the world will swap Wyoming's mountain air for the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina, heading from the Fed's Jackson Hole gathering to Asheville for Monday and Tuesday's G20 meeting.
The absence of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda from Jackson Hole has already turned investors' attention to the G20 gathering, where he is expected to attend alongside Japan's finance minister.
And by the time September is under way they'll be facing some tricky currents with geopolitics, elections and interest-rate decisions all making for choppy waters.
The Fed and BOJ September meetings are already shaping up as key risk events, while Middle East tensions remain in focus.
France faces rocky budget negotiations and regional elections in Germany could test Chancellor Friedrich Merz's political footing.
Beyond that, investors are already looking ahead to a consequential U.K. budget and U.S. midterm elections.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next, three fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks.
All three hold the unfortunate distinction of having a Zacks Value score of F.
(1) Palantir (PLTR - Free Report) : This is a $186 a share stock, with a market cap of $426.5B
It is found in the Zacks Internet Software industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
F12M P/E: 111.0.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community principally in the United States.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is based in Denver, Colorado.
(2) Fortinet (FTNT - Free Report) : This is a $172 a share stock, with a market cap of $115.6B
It is found in Zacks Security industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
F12M P/E: 46.2.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Fortinet, Inc. is a provider of network security appliances and Unified Threat Management network security solutions to enterprises, service providers and government entities worldwide.
Its solutions are designed to integrate multiple levels of security protection, including firewall, virtual private networking (VPN), antivirus, intrusion prevention, web filtering, anti-spam and wide area network acceleration.
Through its products and subscription services, the company provides integrated protection against dynamic security threats while simplifying the IT security infrastructure.
Its solutions incorporate application-specific integrated circuits, hardware architecture, operating system, and associated security and networking functions to defend against multiple categories of IT security attacks without impacting network performance.
The company's network security gateways protect customer data, reduce security complexities and lower the total cost of ownership.
(3) Quanta Services (PWR - Free Report) : This is a $620 a share stock, with a market cap of $92.7B
It is found in the Zacks Engineering – R&D industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
F12M P/E: 37.7.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Quanta is a leading national provider of specialty contracting services, and one of the largest contractors serving the transmission and distribution sector of the North American electric utility industry.
Quanta has operations in the United States, Canada, Australia and other selected international markets.
Key Global Macro
On Monday, the RatingDog Mainland China manufacturing PMI for August comes out. The prior July reading was 50.9.
Germany’s HICP consumer inflation rate for August comes out. The prior reading was +2.8% y/y.
On Tuesday, the Eurozone’s core HICP consumer price index comes out for August. The prior reading was +2.5% y/y.
The Eurozone’s broad HICP reading for August? Consensus now looks for a rise to +3.3% y/y. In a prior reading, it was +2.9% y/y.
On Wednesday, there is a Bank of Canada (BoC) policy rate decision (likely to hold at 2.25%) and a press conference.
On Thursday, U.S. ISM Services PMI for August comes out. The prior July reading was 54.1, driven up by a 70.3 Prices Paid sub-reading.
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims should remain low at 203K.
On Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls come out for August. Expect +45K for August. -23K was the prior reading for July.
The July U.S. household unemployment rate was 4.1%.
Conclusion
On August 26th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared an earnings look-ahead.
Key points:
(1) The overall earnings picture has been positive over the last two years, but it has not been this strong in quite some time.
The earnings growth pace is not only strong and accelerating — but also broad-based and continuing to improve.
In other words, we are experiencing a very favorable earnings setup for the market.
(2) For Q3-26, our expectation is total S&P500 earnings will increase +22.6% from the same period last year, on +10.9% higher revenues.
Zacks expects 14 of 16 sectors to enjoy positive earnings growth; and 5 sectors can produce double-digit growth.
This will be the most broad-based earnings growth performance in recent times.
(3) The revisions trend remains positive, sustaining the favorable revisions trend that has been in place, for a year now.
Since the start of Q3 in July, earnings estimates have moved higher for half of the 16 Zacks sectors.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
The Consequences of U.S. Intervention: Global Week Ahead
Key Takeaways
What happens across this Global Week Ahead?
All suggest there's not much downtime for traders, catching up on that post summer read-in.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) On Friday, the August U.S. Federal Non-farm Payroll Numbers Land
Friday's U.S. jobs report will shed light on whether the country's labor market may be softening or if last month's dour data was a one-off event.
It's expected to show employment climbed by a tepid +45K jobs in August, according to a Reuters poll, after falling by an unexpected -23K in July.
The weak July report did calm market worries about near-term interest rate hikes, although Fed funds futures still suggest better-than-even odds of a rate increase before the year is out.
Data this week showed inflation continues to run above the Fed's +2.0% target.
Other economic data next week include reports on manufacturing and services activity.
Elsewhere, Broadcom's (AVGO - Free Report) quarterly results on Wednesday will likely be in focus after fellow semiconductor giant Nvidia's (NVDA - Free Report) earnings underscored strong demand for AI computing.
(2) Unfolding Consequences of U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent’s Bond Intervention
Another source of potential market volatility comes from the U.S. Treasury market, where traders may well test Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's resolve to limit a rise in U.S. borrowing costs.
Recent days have seen talk of "dollar debasement" gather pace as a result.
The idea is simple: if the U.S. Treasury caps long-term borrowing costs through bond buybacks, then investors will price in worries about a $40-trillion debt pile and policy uncertainty somewhere — the dollar.
For sure, the greenback and U.S. Treasuries have stabilized in recent days from a bout of selling.
However, that has not stalled the debasement talk with market watchers skeptical that buybacks worth $4 billion will shift the needle.
Gold has surged +13% in August, set for its biggest monthly jump since 1999.
Bitcoin also appears to be benefiting: the cryptocurrency moved back above $80,000 on Tuesday.
(3) Eurozone August Inflation? Forecast at +3.3%. That Should Worry the ECB
Eurozone August inflation is forecast to hit +3.3%, its highest in nearly three years, driven by elevated energy costs.
The data is due on Tuesday, and the European Central Bank (ECB) will also be watching readings excluding volatile food and energy prices, forecast to be closer to its +2.0% inflation target, but still above it.
The ECB's big worry is that higher energy prices spill over into broader inflation.
Traders are convinced the ECB will raise rates at its September meeting.
Tuesday's figure would have to be very low to change that, but it will shape longer-term expectations.
Markets price a further hike by early 2027, but sources told Reuters that policymakers will have little appetite to signal further tightening at September's meeting.
In other European Union news, Iceland holds a referendum on Saturday on restarting negotiations to join the bloc.
(4) On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Likely Hikes
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its policy decision on Wednesday, where a hike to 2.75% is likely a done deal as the economy continues to grapple with mounting price pressures.
New Zealand's annual inflation accelerated in the second quarter to a 2-1/2-year high on the back of a sharp rise in fuel prices, and with war in the Middle East still raging, energy costs are unlikely to abate anytime soon.
Investors see rates reaching +3.0% by December and +3.5% next year as the RBNZ shifts from outright stimulus to a more neutral policy stance.
Over in Ottawa, the Bank of Canada is also due to announce its rate decision on Wednesday.
The central bank is seen keeping rates on hold now and well into next year, as price pressures remain largely contained although trade tensions with the U.S. add uncertainty to the economic outlook.
(5) On Monday and Tuesday, a G20 Meeting Happens in Asheville, North Carolina
After Jackson Hole, it's on to the next gig.
Central bankers from around the world will swap Wyoming's mountain air for the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina, heading from the Fed's Jackson Hole gathering to Asheville for Monday and Tuesday's G20 meeting.
The absence of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda from Jackson Hole has already turned investors' attention to the G20 gathering, where he is expected to attend alongside Japan's finance minister.
And by the time September is under way they'll be facing some tricky currents with geopolitics, elections and interest-rate decisions all making for choppy waters.
The Fed and BOJ September meetings are already shaping up as key risk events, while Middle East tensions remain in focus.
France faces rocky budget negotiations and regional elections in Germany could test Chancellor Friedrich Merz's political footing.
Beyond that, investors are already looking ahead to a consequential U.K. budget and U.S. midterm elections.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next, three fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks.
All three hold the unfortunate distinction of having a Zacks Value score of F.
(1) Palantir (PLTR - Free Report) : This is a $186 a share stock, with a market cap of $426.5B
It is found in the Zacks Internet Software industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
F12M P/E: 111.0.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community principally in the United States.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is based in Denver, Colorado.
(2) Fortinet (FTNT - Free Report) : This is a $172 a share stock, with a market cap of $115.6B
It is found in Zacks Security industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
F12M P/E: 46.2.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Fortinet, Inc. is a provider of network security appliances and Unified Threat Management network security solutions to enterprises, service providers and government entities worldwide.
Its solutions are designed to integrate multiple levels of security protection, including firewall, virtual private networking (VPN), antivirus, intrusion prevention, web filtering, anti-spam and wide area network acceleration.
Through its products and subscription services, the company provides integrated protection against dynamic security threats while simplifying the IT security infrastructure.
Its solutions incorporate application-specific integrated circuits, hardware architecture, operating system, and associated security and networking functions to defend against multiple categories of IT security attacks without impacting network performance.
The company's network security gateways protect customer data, reduce security complexities and lower the total cost of ownership.
(3) Quanta Services (PWR - Free Report) : This is a $620 a share stock, with a market cap of $92.7B
It is found in the Zacks Engineering – R&D industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
F12M P/E: 37.7.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Quanta is a leading national provider of specialty contracting services, and one of the largest contractors serving the transmission and distribution sector of the North American electric utility industry.
Quanta has operations in the United States, Canada, Australia and other selected international markets.
Key Global Macro
On Monday, the RatingDog Mainland China manufacturing PMI for August comes out. The prior July reading was 50.9.
Germany’s HICP consumer inflation rate for August comes out. The prior reading was +2.8% y/y.
On Tuesday, the Eurozone’s core HICP consumer price index comes out for August. The prior reading was +2.5% y/y.
The Eurozone’s broad HICP reading for August? Consensus now looks for a rise to +3.3% y/y. In a prior reading, it was +2.9% y/y.
On Wednesday, there is a Bank of Canada (BoC) policy rate decision (likely to hold at 2.25%) and a press conference.
On Thursday, U.S. ISM Services PMI for August comes out. The prior July reading was 54.1, driven up by a 70.3 Prices Paid sub-reading.
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims should remain low at 203K.
On Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls come out for August. Expect +45K for August. -23K was the prior reading for July.
The July U.S. household unemployment rate was 4.1%.
Conclusion
On August 26th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared an earnings look-ahead.
Key points:
(1) The overall earnings picture has been positive over the last two years, but it has not been this strong in quite some time.
The earnings growth pace is not only strong and accelerating — but also broad-based and continuing to improve.
In other words, we are experiencing a very favorable earnings setup for the market.
(2) For Q3-26, our expectation is total S&P500 earnings will increase +22.6% from the same period last year, on +10.9% higher revenues.
Zacks expects 14 of 16 sectors to enjoy positive earnings growth; and 5 sectors can produce double-digit growth.
This will be the most broad-based earnings growth performance in recent times.
(3) The revisions trend remains positive, sustaining the favorable revisions trend that has been in place, for a year now.
Since the start of Q3 in July, earnings estimates have moved higher for half of the 16 Zacks sectors.
(4) Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) , Micron (MU - Free Report) , and Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) continue to be material contributors to the Tech sector’s growth picture.
Excluding these three companies?
Q3 earnings for the rest of the Tech sector would be +18.9% (versus +39.3% otherwise).
That’s it for this Global Week Ahead.
Warm Regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist