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Why Is Mosaic (MOS) Up 10.1% Since Last Earnings Report?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) . Shares have added about 10.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Mosaic’s Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Miss on Lower Volumes
Mosaic posted second-quarter 2026 net loss of $273 million or 86 cents per share, down sharply from a profit of $411 million or $1.29 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings were 13 cents per share, down 74.5% from adjusted earnings of 51 cents a year ago. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 9 cents.
Net sales declined 6% year over year to $2,824.1 million from $3,005.7 million in the prior-year quarter. Revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,046.4 million. Lower sales volumes and elevated raw material costs, particularly sulfur, more than offset the benefit of higher phosphate and potash prices.
Segment Highlights
Mosaic’s Phosphate segment generated net sales of $1.25 billion, up from $1.17 billion a year ago. Sales volumes declined to 1.4 million tons from 1.5 million tons due to production curtailments. Net sales missed our estimate of $1.27 billion. Gross margin deteriorated to negative $4 per ton from $67 per ton a year ago as higher sulfur and ammonia costs offset stronger DAP pricing. The average DAP selling price increased to $773 per ton from $668 per ton.
The Potash segment delivered net sales of $650 million, down from $711 million a year ago. Sales volumes fell to 2 million tons from 2.3 million tons because of turnaround activities and the Carlsbad divestiture. However, net sales beat our estimate of $603.8 million. Gross margin improved to $103 per ton from $89 per ton, supported by higher realized prices. The average MOP selling price rose to $275 per ton from $261 per ton.
Mosaic Fertilizantes reported net sales of $1.03 billion, down from $1.18 billion in the year-ago quarter. Sales volumes declined to 1.5 million tons from 2.2 million tons, reflecting curtailed domestic production and softer demand. Revenue missed our estimate of $1.21 billion. Gross margin fell to $4 per ton from $73 per ton, while the average finished product selling price increased to $585 per ton from $474 per ton. Higher sulfur costs and lower production volumes weighed on profitability.
Financials
Mosaic ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $294 million compared with $276.6 million at the end of 2025. Long-term debt (net of current maturities) increased to $4,767.7 million from $4,250.9 million at year-end 2025.
Cash flow from operating activities totaled $167.4 million in the second quarter, down from $609.5 million a year ago. Capital expenditures were $320.3 million, resulting in negative free cash flow of $152.9 million. Mosaic paid a regular dividend of 22 cents per share during the quarter.
Outlook
Mosaic reduced its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $1.2 billion from the prior expectation of $1.25 billion while maintaining its potash production outlook of about 9 million tons. For the third quarter, phosphate sales volumes are expected to be 1.1-1.4 million tons with DAP prices of $820-$840 per ton, while potash sales volumes are projected at 2-2.2 million tons with MOP prices of $270-$290 per ton. The company now expects SG&A expenses of $510-$530 million, net interest expense of $220-$240 million and cash taxes of $250-$300 million for 2026.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -64.19% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mosaic has a poor Growth Score of F, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Mosaic (MOS) Up 10.1% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) . Shares have added about 10.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Mosaic’s Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Miss on Lower Volumes
Mosaic posted second-quarter 2026 net loss of $273 million or 86 cents per share, down sharply from a profit of $411 million or $1.29 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings were 13 cents per share, down 74.5% from adjusted earnings of 51 cents a year ago. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 9 cents.
Net sales declined 6% year over year to $2,824.1 million from $3,005.7 million in the prior-year quarter. Revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,046.4 million. Lower sales volumes and elevated raw material costs, particularly sulfur, more than offset the benefit of higher phosphate and potash prices.
Segment Highlights
Mosaic’s Phosphate segment generated net sales of $1.25 billion, up from $1.17 billion a year ago. Sales volumes declined to 1.4 million tons from 1.5 million tons due to production curtailments. Net sales missed our estimate of $1.27 billion. Gross margin deteriorated to negative $4 per ton from $67 per ton a year ago as higher sulfur and ammonia costs offset stronger DAP pricing. The average DAP selling price increased to $773 per ton from $668 per ton.
The Potash segment delivered net sales of $650 million, down from $711 million a year ago. Sales volumes fell to 2 million tons from 2.3 million tons because of turnaround activities and the Carlsbad divestiture. However, net sales beat our estimate of $603.8 million. Gross margin improved to $103 per ton from $89 per ton, supported by higher realized prices. The average MOP selling price rose to $275 per ton from $261 per ton.
Mosaic Fertilizantes reported net sales of $1.03 billion, down from $1.18 billion in the year-ago quarter. Sales volumes declined to 1.5 million tons from 2.2 million tons, reflecting curtailed domestic production and softer demand. Revenue missed our estimate of $1.21 billion. Gross margin fell to $4 per ton from $73 per ton, while the average finished product selling price increased to $585 per ton from $474 per ton. Higher sulfur costs and lower production volumes weighed on profitability.
Financials
Mosaic ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $294 million compared with $276.6 million at the end of 2025. Long-term debt (net of current maturities) increased to $4,767.7 million from $4,250.9 million at year-end 2025.
Cash flow from operating activities totaled $167.4 million in the second quarter, down from $609.5 million a year ago. Capital expenditures were $320.3 million, resulting in negative free cash flow of $152.9 million. Mosaic paid a regular dividend of 22 cents per share during the quarter.
Outlook
Mosaic reduced its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $1.2 billion from the prior expectation of $1.25 billion while maintaining its potash production outlook of about 9 million tons. For the third quarter, phosphate sales volumes are expected to be 1.1-1.4 million tons with DAP prices of $820-$840 per ton, while potash sales volumes are projected at 2-2.2 million tons with MOP prices of $270-$290 per ton. The company now expects SG&A expenses of $510-$530 million, net interest expense of $220-$240 million and cash taxes of $250-$300 million for 2026.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -64.19% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mosaic has a poor Growth Score of F, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.