It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Marathon Petroleum (MPC Quick QuoteMPC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 30% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marathon Petroleum due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Marathon Petroleum Q2 Earnings Beat on Strong Refining Margins

Marathon Petroleum reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $17.73 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.52 by 22.1%. Earnings per share also surged 347.7% from the year-ago level of $3.96 per share, primarily reflecting significantly stronger Refining & Marketing performance.

Findlay, OH-based Marathon Petroleum reported revenues and other income of $52.34 billion, up 53.5% year over year and above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $34.83 billion by 50.3%. Refining & Marketing margin rose sharply to $36.33 per barrel from $17.58 a year ago, and also beat our consensus mark by 11.17%

Inside Marathon Petroleum’s Segments

Refining & Marketing (R&M): This segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $6.66 billion, up significantly from $1.89 billion in the year-ago quarter, and the reported figure was also 14.75% above our consensus estimate. The improvement primarily reflected higher crack spreads across all regions. Adjusted EBITDA per barrel increased to $24.84 from $6.79 a year earlier.

Midstream: This unit mainly reflects Marathon Petroleum’s general partner and majority limited partner interests in MPLX LP — a publicly traded master limited partnership that owns, operates, develops and acquires pipelines and other midstream assets.

Segment adjusted EBITDA was $1.78 billion, up 8.3% from $1.64 billion in the second quarter of 2025, and the reported figure was also 5.51% above our consensus estimate. This increase was primarily driven by higher rates and throughputs, including contributions from equity affiliates and acquisitions, partly offset by the divestiture of non-core gathering and processing assets.

Renewable Diesel: The Renewable Diesel segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $258 million against a loss of $19 million in the corresponding period of 2025, and the reported figure was also 186.45% above our consensus estimate. The improvement reflected a stronger margin environment, higher throughputs and improved regulatory credit values.

Renewable Diesel margin increased to $321 million from $49 million a year ago. Following the completion of the Martinez turnaround in the first quarter, utilization reached 95% in the reported quarter. Management also highlighted feedstock optimization as a contributor to the segment's performance.

MPC's Refining Operating Metrics

Crude capacity utilization during the quarter was 94% compared with 97% in the year-ago period. Net refinery throughput was 2,944 thousand barrels per day (mbpd), down from 3,060 mbpd a year earlier. However, refined product sales volumes increased slightly to 3,842 mbpd from 3,835 mbpd.

MPC achieved Refining & Marketing margin capture of 112%. Management attributed the strong capture to crude sourcing and optimization, inventory discipline, favorable clean-product margins and higher jet production. Refining operating costs increased to $5.72 per barrel from $5.34, while planned turnaround costs totaled $275 million compared with $250 million a year ago.

Financial Analysis

Marathon Petroleum reported total costs and expenses of $45.02 billion in the second quarter of 2026 compared with $31.90 billion in the year-ago period. Capital expenditures and investments totaled $1.39 billion, up from $1.07 billion a year earlier, with $1.02 billion directed toward the Midstream segment.

As of June 30, 2026, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $7.77 billion and total consolidated debt of $32.82 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 56.1%. MPC returned more than $2.8 billion of capital to its shareholders during the quarter, including $2.53 billion in share repurchases. The company had $6.1 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorizations.

MPC's 2026 capital spending outlook, excluding MPLX, remains $1.5 billion. Approximately 65% of the planned spending is focused on value-enhancing investments, while the remaining 35% is allocated to sustaining operations.

During the second quarter, the El Paso yield improvement and Robinson product flexibility investments were placed in service. The Robinson project enables approximately 10,000 barrels per day of incremental jet fuel production, while the El Paso investment enhances the refinery's ability to produce specialty gasoline for key markets.

Guidance

For the third quarter of 2026, MPC expects crude oil throughput of 2,820 mbpd and total refinery throughput of 3,005 mbpd. Refinery utilization is projected at 94%.

The company expects refining operating costs of $5.60 per barrel, distribution costs of $1.65 billion and planned turnaround costs of $290 million. Corporate expenses are projected at $260 million, including approximately $30 million of depreciation and amortization.  

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a flat trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, Marathon Petroleum has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Marathon Petroleum has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Marathon Petroleum belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry. Another stock from the same industry, PBF Energy (PBF Quick QuotePBF - Free Report) , has gained 23.4% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2026.

PBF Energy reported revenues of $11.68 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +56.2%. EPS of $6.22 for the same period compares with -$1.03 a year ago.

For the current quarter, PBF Energy is expected to post earnings of $6.84 per share, indicating a change of +1415.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

PBF Energy has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.