Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Why Is Primerica (PRI) Down 8.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

Read MoreHide Full Article

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Primerica (PRI - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Primerica due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Primerica, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Primerica Q2 Earnings Rise 17% Y/Y, ISP Business Drives Growth

Primerica reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted operating earnings of $6.41 per share, up 17% from $5.46 in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted net operating income increased 11% year over year to $201 million.

Total revenues rose 9% to $865.1 million from $793.3 million a year ago. Adjusted operating revenues increased 8% to $863.4 million. The quarterly performance benefited from strong growth in the Investment and Savings Products business, partly offset by weaker Term Life production and higher expenses.

Net income increased 13% year over year to $202.3 million, while diluted earnings per share advanced 19% to $6.45.

Q2 Segment Performance

Investment and Savings Products remained the primary growth driver. Segment revenues jumped 21% year over year to $360.5 million, while pre-tax income increased 31% to $104.2 million.

Product sales reached $4.4 billion, up 23%, driven by strong client demand and momentum across managed accounts and Canadian mutual funds. Client asset values climbed 16% year over year to a record $140 billion, while average client assets increased 19% to $135.5 billion. Positive net inflows totaled $397 million, indicating that asset growth was supported by fresh client money in addition to favorable market performance.

Sales-based revenues increased 17%, while asset-based revenues climbed 28%, aided by higher client assets and a favorable mix shift toward U.S. managed accounts and Canadian mutual funds under the principal distributor model.

The Investment and Savings Products business accounted for roughly 42% of consolidated operating revenues in the quarter, up from about 37% a year earlier, highlighting its growing contribution to Primerica’s earnings mix.

Term Life adjusted operating revenues were $443.6 million, largely unchanged from $441.8 million a year ago, while adjusted pre-tax operating income declined 4% to $148.5 million.

Adjusted direct premiums increased 3.4% to $696.8 million. However, new policies issued declined 12% to 78,904, while issued face amount fell 8% to $27.7 billion. The life-licensed sales force stood at 148,612 at June 30, 2026, down 3% year over year.

Term Life profitability also faced some pressure. The benefits and claims ratio remained relatively stable at 57.9%, while the insurance expense ratio increased to 8.4% from 7.6% a year ago. Consequently, the segment’s operating margin contracted to 21.3% from 23%.

Sales Force and Life Insurance Trends

Primerica continues to face pressure from tighter household budgets among its core middle-income customers. Although recruiting increased 2% year over year during the quarter, the conversion of recruits into licensed representatives remained weak.

Management now expects the life-licensed sales force to be flat to down 2% in 2026 and anticipates a mid-single-digit decline in issued policies for the full year. These trends suggest that Term Life production is likely to remain a near-term headwind despite continued growth in the existing premium base.

For 2026, Primerica continues to expect adjusted direct premium growth of about 3.5%. Management also projects a benefits and claims ratio of around 58%, a DAC amortization and commission ratio of 12-13%, and a Term Life operating margin near 21%, excluding assumption-review impacts.

Expenses Remain Elevated

Consolidated insurance and other operating expenses were $166 million in the second quarter, up 8% year over year, reflecting higher growth-related expenses, compensation and continued technology investments.

Management expects expense growth to accelerate to 10-12% in the third quarter because of the timing of technology projects before moderating to 6-7% in the fourth quarter. Full-year expense growth guidance remains 7-8%.

Financial Position and Capital Deployment

Primerica exited the quarter with $600.2 million in cash and cash equivalents and $4.7 billion in total investments. Holding-company cash and available-for-sale securities totaled $587 million, while Primerica Life’s estimated risk-based capital ratio was approximately 440%. Total stockholders’ equity was $2.5 billion at June 30, 2026.

Operating cash flow totaled $350.6 million in the first six months of 2026 compared with $360 million in the prior-year period.

Primerica remained active in returning capital to shareholders. The company repurchased $135 million of common stock during the second quarter and paid roughly $37 million in dividends. Shareholder returns totaled approximately $352 million during the first half of 2026.

PRI’s 2026 Outlook

Management expects Investment and Savings Products sales to increase 10-15% in 2026, supported by retirement demand, positive client flows and broader product offerings. However, tougher year-over-year comparisons are expected in the second half.

The investment business should remain Primerica’s primary growth engine, while weaker life insurance production and elevated operating expenses could temper overall earnings momentum. The growing contribution from asset-based and distribution revenues nevertheless provides some offset to the softness in Term Life.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

Currently, Primerica has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Primerica has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Published in