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CF (CF) Up 18.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for CF Industries (CF - Free Report) . Shares have added about 18.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CF due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
CF Industries’ Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates Despite Strong NitrogenPricing
CF Industries reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $4.73 per share, up 99.6% from $2.37 in the year-ago quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.65 by 16.3%.
Net sales increased 17.6% year over year to $2.22 billion but missed the consensus estimate of $2.43 billion by 8.7%. Higher average selling prices across all segments supported growth, while total sales volume declined 15.3% to 4.25 million tons.
Segmental Review
Ammonia segment net sales rose 19.3% year over year to $586 million. Adjusted gross margin increased to $288 million from $188 million. An increase in the average selling price more than offset a decline in sales volume. Higher prices supported profitability, while lower supply availability and maintenance costs remained headwinds.
Granular Urea segment net sales climbed 38.8% to $759 million. Adjusted gross margin advanced to $551 million from $351 million. Sales volume and the average selling price rose. Greater product availability and a production mix favoring granular urea supported volumes, while stronger pricing lifted margins despite higher natural gas costs.
UAN segment net sales edged up 0.5% to $613 million. Adjusted gross margin rose to $403 million from $342 million. A rise in the average selling price offset a reduction in sales volume. Lower global demand and a production mix favoring granular urea pressured volumes, while higher freight, distribution and natural gas costs partly offset the pricing benefit.
AN segment’s net sales decreased 39.3% to $71 million. The segment recorded an adjusted gross loss of $1 million compared with an adjusted gross margin of $35 million a year earlier. Sales volume plunged because of lost production at the Yazoo City Complex, outweighing an increase in the average selling price. Higher purchased ammonia costs and outage-related expenses also pressured results.
Financials
As of June 30, 2026, CF Industries had cash and cash equivalents of $2.48 billion. Long-term debt was $3.22 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $878 million in the second quarter. CF Industries repurchased 2 million shares for $230 million during the quarter. The company bought back 2.2 million shares for $245 million in the first half, leaving roughly $1.48 billion under its current authorization.
Outlook
CF Industries expects full-year 2026 gross ammonia production of approximately 9.5 million tons, including the effect of the ongoing Yazoo City outage. Management expects ammonia, AN solution, nitric acid, UAN solution and urea liquor production at the complex to resume during the first half of 2027. The company projects 2026 capital expenditures of about $1.3 billion on a consolidated basis.
Management expects nitrogen supply to remain constrained and demand to remain constructive through the end of 2026 and into 2027. Lower nitrogen prices entering the second half of 2026 are expected to support demand in India, Southeast Asia, Brazil and other import markets. North American nitrogen demand for the 2027 growing season is also expected to remain firm.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -20% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, CF has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, CF has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
CF belongs to the Zacks Fertilizers industry. Another stock from the same industry, Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) , has gained 8.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2026.
Mosaic reported revenues of $2.82 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -6%. EPS of $0.13 for the same period compares with $0.51 a year ago.
Mosaic is expected to post earnings of $0.09 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -91.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -64.2%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Mosaic. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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CF (CF) Up 18.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for CF Industries (CF - Free Report) . Shares have added about 18.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CF due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
CF Industries’ Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates Despite Strong Nitrogen Pricing
CF Industries reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $4.73 per share, up 99.6% from $2.37 in the year-ago quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.65 by 16.3%.
Net sales increased 17.6% year over year to $2.22 billion but missed the consensus estimate of $2.43 billion by 8.7%. Higher average selling prices across all segments supported growth, while total sales volume declined 15.3% to 4.25 million tons.
Segmental Review
Ammonia segment net sales rose 19.3% year over year to $586 million. Adjusted gross margin increased to $288 million from $188 million. An increase in the average selling price more than offset a decline in sales volume. Higher prices supported profitability, while lower supply availability and maintenance costs remained headwinds.
Granular Urea segment net sales climbed 38.8% to $759 million. Adjusted gross margin advanced to $551 million from $351 million. Sales volume and the average selling price rose. Greater product availability and a production mix favoring granular urea supported volumes, while stronger pricing lifted margins despite higher natural gas costs.
UAN segment net sales edged up 0.5% to $613 million. Adjusted gross margin rose to $403 million from $342 million. A rise in the average selling price offset a reduction in sales volume. Lower global demand and a production mix favoring granular urea pressured volumes, while higher freight, distribution and natural gas costs partly offset the pricing benefit.
AN segment’s net sales decreased 39.3% to $71 million. The segment recorded an adjusted gross loss of $1 million compared with an adjusted gross margin of $35 million a year earlier. Sales volume plunged because of lost production at the Yazoo City Complex, outweighing an increase in the average selling price. Higher purchased ammonia costs and outage-related expenses also pressured results.
Financials
As of June 30, 2026, CF Industries had cash and cash equivalents of $2.48 billion. Long-term debt was $3.22 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $878 million in the second quarter. CF Industries repurchased 2 million shares for $230 million during the quarter. The company bought back 2.2 million shares for $245 million in the first half, leaving roughly $1.48 billion under its current authorization.
Outlook
CF Industries expects full-year 2026 gross ammonia production of approximately 9.5 million tons, including the effect of the ongoing Yazoo City outage. Management expects ammonia, AN solution, nitric acid, UAN solution and urea liquor production at the complex to resume during the first half of 2027. The company projects 2026 capital expenditures of about $1.3 billion on a consolidated basis.
Management expects nitrogen supply to remain constrained and demand to remain constructive through the end of 2026 and into 2027. Lower nitrogen prices entering the second half of 2026 are expected to support demand in India, Southeast Asia, Brazil and other import markets. North American nitrogen demand for the 2027 growing season is also expected to remain firm.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -20% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, CF has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, CF has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
CF belongs to the Zacks Fertilizers industry. Another stock from the same industry, Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) , has gained 8.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2026.
Mosaic reported revenues of $2.82 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -6%. EPS of $0.13 for the same period compares with $0.51 a year ago.
Mosaic is expected to post earnings of $0.09 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -91.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -64.2%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Mosaic. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.